Equity Profile

ARLP

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.

EnergyCoal & Consumable Fuels$3.2B

Apr27Mon

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 2.59%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.07	$0.28	-74.07%
Revenue	N/A	$513M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 2.59%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.07	$0.28	-74.07%
Revenue	N/A	$513M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Defensive

Overall, management expressed concern about current market conditions. They highlighted their commitment to navigating these challenges.

Management acknowledged the challenges faced during the quarter.

They emphasized ongoing efforts to improve operational efficiency.

What It Means

The earnings report indicates that Alliance Resource Partners faced significant challenges, leading to a notable miss on EPS. Despite this, the stock rose by 2.59%, which may reflect investor optimism about the company's long-term strategies. The lack of revenue data and guidance leaves some uncertainty about future performance.

Company Snapshot

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on coal and consumable fuels....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

0.28

Revenue

Revenue reflects the total sales and is crucial for understanding the company's market position and growth trajectory.

513M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on coal and consumable fuels. As a significant player in the coal industry, its performance is closely tied to energy demand and regulatory changes, making it an important company to watch as energy markets evolve.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-24.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, ARLP reported an EPS of $0.64, exceeding estimates by 5.44%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.65% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Maintain operational efficiency to support profitability.
Focus on cost management to navigate market fluctuations.
Adapt to regulatory changes affecting coal production.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a mixed outlook for ARLP, with a consensus EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $513 million. The market is keen to see if the company can continue its recent trend of beating earnings expectations.

Bull Case

If ARLP exceeds EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and increased demand for coal, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if ARLP misses EPS expectations, it may indicate challenges in cost management or declining demand, which could negatively impact investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.28

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

513M

Revenue reflects the total sales and is crucial for understanding the company's market position and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ARLP's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.28?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth given the consensus of $513 million?

Understanding revenue trends will help assess the company's market position and future growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate ARLP's ability to capitalize on rising coal demand due to supply constraints in other regions.

Supporting Evidence

Recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in EPS estimates.

Coal prices have shown resilience, which could positively impact revenue.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.

Key Risk

If ARLP's revenue exceeds $550 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ARLP can sustain its recent earnings momentum amid fluctuating energy prices.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.20 would confirm the bear case, suggesting significant operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.1%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.1% while ARLP has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

25.9%

Calls (57K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (13K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARLP beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.26%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.97%, reflecting disappointment in the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal demand trends and pricing.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into regulatory impacts on coal production.
4Future guidance on operational efficiency improvements.
5Any commentary on market competition and positioning.

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Company Snapshot

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on coal and consumable fuels....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

0.28

Revenue

Revenue reflects the total sales and is crucial for understanding the company's market position and growth trajectory.

513M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-24.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, ARLP reported an EPS of $0.64, exceeding estimates by 5.44%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.65% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Maintain operational efficiency to support profitability.
Focus on cost management to navigate market fluctuations.
Adapt to regulatory changes affecting coal production.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ARLP exceeds EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and increased demand for coal, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if ARLP misses EPS expectations, it may indicate challenges in cost management or declining demand, which could negatively impact investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.28

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

513M

Revenue reflects the total sales and is crucial for understanding the company's market position and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ARLP's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.28?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth given the consensus of $513 million?

Understanding revenue trends will help assess the company's market position and future growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate ARLP's ability to capitalize on rising coal demand due to supply constraints in other regions.

Supporting Evidence

Recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in EPS estimates.

Coal prices have shown resilience, which could positively impact revenue.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.

Key Risk

If ARLP's revenue exceeds $550 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ARLP can sustain its recent earnings momentum amid fluctuating energy prices.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.20 would confirm the bear case, suggesting significant operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.1%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.1% while ARLP has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

25.9%

Calls (57K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (13K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARLP beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.26%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.97%, reflecting disappointment in the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal demand trends and pricing.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into regulatory impacts on coal production.
4Future guidance on operational efficiency improvements.
5Any commentary on market competition and positioning.