Equity Profile

IDYA

IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$2.5B

May5Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:00 AM EDT

IDEAYA Biosciences Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.35%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-1.11	$-0.98	-3.35%
Revenue	$—	$5M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

IDEAYA Biosciences Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.35%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-1.11	$-0.98	-3.35%
Revenue	$—	$5M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

IDEAYA Biosciences reported a larger-than-expected loss per share, which contributed to a slight decline in its stock price. The company did not provide revenue figures, leaving investors without key insights into its financial health. The stock's modest drop reflects investor concerns over the earnings miss and lack of guidance.

Company Snapshot

IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing targeted therapies for cancer....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$-0.98

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$5M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing targeted therapies for cancer. With a market cap of $3 billion, it operates in the health care sector, which is increasingly important as innovation in drug development continues to grow.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8281.73%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.69%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, IDEAYA reported an EPS of $-0.94, which was better than analysts' expectations of $-1.03. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leading to a modest stock increase of 1.62% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect IDEAYA to report a loss of $-0.98 per share on $5 million in revenue. Given the company's history of mixed earnings surprises, investors are cautious.

Bull Case

If IDEAYA can beat EPS expectations and show stronger revenue growth, it could signal improved operational efficiency and market acceptance of its therapies.

Bear Case

A larger-than-expected loss or disappointing revenue could raise concerns about the company's financial stability and future growth prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.98

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$5M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.98?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved financial performance and boost investor confidence.

What revenue figures will IDEAYA report, and how do they compare to the $5 million consensus?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing market demand and the company's growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is overly focused on the expected loss, but IDEAYA's recent operational improvements and potential revenue growth could surprise investors positively.

Supporting Evidence

The company has shown a history of beating EPS estimates, which could continue this quarter.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that the market may be underestimating potential volatility.

Key Risk

If IDEAYA reports revenue significantly above $5 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will reflect the company's ability to manage costs and grow revenue amidst a competitive landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS better than $-0.98 and revenue exceeding $5 million would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-1.13 or revenue significantly below expectations would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.08%

Historical Avg

±4.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.1% while IDYA has averaged ±4.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

52.0%

Calls (7K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.1%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If IDEAYA beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.24%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement.

Miss

A miss could result in a decline of around 5.14%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new drug candidates or clinical trial results.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into market demand for IDEAYA's therapies.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and product pipeline.
5Any strategic partnerships or collaborations that may enhance growth.

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Company Snapshot

IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing targeted therapies for cancer....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$-0.98

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$5M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8281.73%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.69%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect IDEAYA to report a loss of $-0.98 per share on $5 million in revenue. Given the company's history of mixed earnings surprises, investors are cautious.

Bull Case

If IDEAYA can beat EPS expectations and show stronger revenue growth, it could signal improved operational efficiency and market acceptance of its therapies.

Bear Case

A larger-than-expected loss or disappointing revenue could raise concerns about the company's financial stability and future growth prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.98

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$5M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.98?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved financial performance and boost investor confidence.

What revenue figures will IDEAYA report, and how do they compare to the $5 million consensus?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing market demand and the company's growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is overly focused on the expected loss, but IDEAYA's recent operational improvements and potential revenue growth could surprise investors positively.

Supporting Evidence

The company has shown a history of beating EPS estimates, which could continue this quarter.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that the market may be underestimating potential volatility.

Key Risk

If IDEAYA reports revenue significantly above $5 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will reflect the company's ability to manage costs and grow revenue amidst a competitive landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS better than $-0.98 and revenue exceeding $5 million would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-1.13 or revenue significantly below expectations would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.08%

Historical Avg

±4.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.1% while IDYA has averaged ±4.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

52.0%

Calls (7K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.1%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If IDEAYA beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.24%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement.

Miss

A miss could result in a decline of around 5.14%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new drug candidates or clinical trial results.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into market demand for IDEAYA's therapies.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and product pipeline.
5Any strategic partnerships or collaborations that may enhance growth.