Financials·Diversified Banks·$23.6B
KeyCorp New (KEY) is a diversified bank that provides various financial services, including retail banking, commercial banking, and investment services. With a market cap of $24 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, especially as consumer spending and interest rates fluctuate.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health, and investors will be keen to see if KEY can continue its streak of beating estimates.
Net Interest Margin
This metric shows how effectively the bank is managing its interest income versus interest expenses, which is crucial in a fluctuating interest rate environment.
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KeyCorp New (KEY) is a diversified bank that provides various financial services, including retail banking, commercial banking, and investment services. With a market cap of $24 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, especially as consumer spending and interest rates fluctuate.
EPS Beat Streak
8Q
EPS Beat Rate
100%
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.05%
Avg Stock Reaction
-1.46%
In Q1 2026, KeyCorp reported an EPS of $0.44, exceeding expectations by 7.06%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.46% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Overall, expectations are mixed heading into the earnings report, with a strong historical record of beating EPS estimates but uncertain market conditions.
Bull Case
If KeyCorp can demonstrate strong loan growth and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could lead to a positive market reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if there are signs of rising credit risk or disappointing loan growth, it could weigh heavily on investor sentiment.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
N/AEPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health, and investors will be keen to see if KEY can continue its streak of beating estimates.
Net Interest Margin
N/AThis metric shows how effectively the bank is managing its interest income versus interest expenses, which is crucial in a fluctuating interest rate environment.
Loan Growth
N/ALoan growth indicates demand for credit and can signal overall economic health; strong growth could boost revenues.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What is the current loan growth rate compared to last quarter?
Loan growth is a critical driver of revenue for banks, and any slowdown could signal broader economic issues.
Q2
How has the net interest margin changed in the current quarter?
The net interest margin directly impacts profitability, and any significant changes could affect investor confidence.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for loan growth in a recovering economy, especially if interest rates stabilize.
Supporting Evidence
KeyCorp has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.
The bank's focus on digital banking could attract more customers, driving loan demand.
Recent economic indicators suggest a rebound in consumer spending, which could boost lending activity.
Key Risk
If loan growth comes in below 3%, it could challenge the optimistic outlook currently priced in.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will hinge on the bank's ability to manage interest rates and credit quality while driving loan growth.
Bull Confirmed If
A loan growth rate of +5% or better would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand for credit.
Bear Confirmed If
A decline in net interest margin below 2.5% would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.
Implied Move
±N/A
There is currently no options market data available to gauge investor sentiment ahead of the earnings report.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If KeyCorp beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest gain of around 1.5%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may remain flat or see slight volatility.
Miss
Should KeyCorp miss expectations, the average reaction has historically been a decline of around 1.5%, indicating investor disappointment.
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Jul 20, 2026