Equity Profile

KEY

KeyCorp

FinancialsDiversified Banks$23.6B

Jul21Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

KeyCorp is a diversified bank holding company that provides a range of financial services, including retail banking, commercial banking, and investment services. With a market cap of $23 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly as consumer spending and interest rates fluctuate.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well KeyCorp is managing its expenses and revenue.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, crucial for banks in a changing interest rate environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KEY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.46%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, KeyCorp reported an EPS of $0.44, exceeding expectations by 7.06%. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.46% the following day, reflecting positive market sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of KeyCorp's earnings report, especially given its consistent EPS beats in recent quarters. However, the lack of analyst estimates leaves uncertainty about revenue expectations.

Bull Case

If KeyCorp continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and effective management strategies, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of slowing loan growth or declining net interest margins could raise concerns about the bank's profitability, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given KeyCorp's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.

How has loan growth trended in the last quarter?

Loan growth is a vital indicator of demand and economic health, and any slowdown could negatively impact the stock.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating KeyCorp's ability to sustain loan growth despite economic headwinds, which could lead to a positive surprise in EPS.

Supporting Evidence

KeyCorp has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong management performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting traders expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of KeyCorp's profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether KeyCorp can maintain its strong earnings performance amid changing economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.46 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.78%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.8% while KEY has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.0%

Calls (25K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (29K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If KeyCorp beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.52% on the first day, confirming ongoing operational strength.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 1.46% following such outcomes.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth trends and demand for credit.
2Insights into net interest margin performance and expectations.
3Management's outlook on economic conditions and their impact on operations.
4Details on cost management strategies and efficiency improvements.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning within the banking sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

ICICI Bank Limited

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well KeyCorp is managing its expenses and revenue.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, crucial for banks in a changing interest rate environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KEY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.46%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, KeyCorp reported an EPS of $0.44, exceeding expectations by 7.06%. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.46% the following day, reflecting positive market sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If KeyCorp continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and effective management strategies, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of slowing loan growth or declining net interest margins could raise concerns about the bank's profitability, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given KeyCorp's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.

How has loan growth trended in the last quarter?

Loan growth is a vital indicator of demand and economic health, and any slowdown could negatively impact the stock.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating KeyCorp's ability to sustain loan growth despite economic headwinds, which could lead to a positive surprise in EPS.

Supporting Evidence

KeyCorp has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong management performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting traders expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of KeyCorp's profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether KeyCorp can maintain its strong earnings performance amid changing economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.46 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.78%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.8% while KEY has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.0%

Calls (25K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (29K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If KeyCorp beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.52% on the first day, confirming ongoing operational strength.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 1.46% following such outcomes.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth trends and demand for credit.
2Insights into net interest margin performance and expectations.
3Management's outlook on economic conditions and their impact on operations.
4Details on cost management strategies and efficiency improvements.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning within the banking sector.