Equity Profile

KNX

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.

IndustrialsCargo Ground Transportation$12.8B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing logistics and freight services across North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company managed costs and revenue during the quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and capture market share, which is vital in the competitive transportation industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing logistics and freight services across North America. With a market cap of $12 billion, the company is influenced by trends in consumer spending and supply chain dynamics, making its performance significant for investors in the industrials sector.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-10.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Knight-Swift reported an EPS of $0.09, significantly missing estimates of $0.28, leading to a decline in stock price the following day. The company has faced challenges in meeting revenue expectations, which may impact investor sentiment going into the next earnings report.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic but concerned about Knight-Swift's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses. The market is looking for signs of improved operational performance and revenue growth in the upcoming report.

Bull Case

If Knight-Swift can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved efficiency, it could signal a turnaround, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Continued earnings misses or weak revenue growth could further erode investor confidence, leading to a negative reaction in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to analyst expectations?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether Knight-Swift can regain investor confidence after recent misses.

How has revenue growth performed relative to previous quarters and market expectations?

Understanding revenue trends will provide insights into the company's operational health and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for Knight-Swift to rebound from its recent earnings misses, as operational efficiencies could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 16% move, suggesting the market anticipates volatility that may not materialize if the company performs well.

Historical data shows that Knight-Swift has a 50% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.30, it could significantly shift market sentiment and validate a bullish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a series of earnings misses, and the market is looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.30 or better would confirm a strong recovery and positive momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would reinforce concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.00%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of around 16%, indicating heightened uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.0% while KNX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (116K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knight-Swift beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.47%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 0.69%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiency improvements.
2Details on revenue growth compared to industry trends.
3Management's outlook on future demand and market conditions.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
5Responses to questions about competitive pressures in the transportation sector.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing logistics and freight services across North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company managed costs and revenue during the quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and capture market share, which is vital in the competitive transportation industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-10.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Knight-Swift can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved efficiency, it could signal a turnaround, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Continued earnings misses or weak revenue growth could further erode investor confidence, leading to a negative reaction in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to analyst expectations?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether Knight-Swift can regain investor confidence after recent misses.

How has revenue growth performed relative to previous quarters and market expectations?

Understanding revenue trends will provide insights into the company's operational health and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for Knight-Swift to rebound from its recent earnings misses, as operational efficiencies could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 16% move, suggesting the market anticipates volatility that may not materialize if the company performs well.

Historical data shows that Knight-Swift has a 50% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.30, it could significantly shift market sentiment and validate a bullish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a series of earnings misses, and the market is looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.30 or better would confirm a strong recovery and positive momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would reinforce concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.00%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of around 16%, indicating heightened uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.0% while KNX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (116K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knight-Swift beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.47%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 0.69%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiency improvements.
2Details on revenue growth compared to industry trends.
3Management's outlook on future demand and market conditions.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
5Responses to questions about competitive pressures in the transportation sector.