Equity Profile

KNX

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.

IndustrialsCargo Ground Transportation$12.1B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing trucking services across North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the demand for transportation services and the company's ability to capture market share.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing trucking services across North America. With a market cap of $12 billion, the company is significant in the logistics and supply chain industry, which is crucial for the movement of goods in a recovering economy.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-10.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Knight-Swift reported an EPS of $0.09, significantly missing the estimated $0.28. This was a disappointing performance, leading to a slight decline in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on cost management to improve profitability.
Enhance operational efficiency in response to market challenges.
Commit to exploring new revenue streams to bolster growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has struggled to meet earnings estimates in recent quarters. Investors are keen to see if management can turn around the disappointing performance.

Bull Case

If Knight-Swift can demonstrate improved operational efficiency and better-than-expected revenue growth, it could signal a recovery and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to provide a clear path to profitability, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and will it meet or exceed expectations?

Given the company's recent history of missing EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for restoring investor confidence.

How is Knight-Swift addressing operational efficiency and cost management?

Investors will be looking for concrete strategies to improve margins and profitability, especially in a competitive market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Knight-Swift's potential for operational improvements and cost management strategies, which could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising investors with better-than-expected performance when focusing on efficiency.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that the market is anticipating volatility, which could work in the company's favor.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.28, it could significantly shift market sentiment and expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on whether the company can improve its profitability metrics and operational efficiency.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to an EPS of at least $0.28 would confirm the bull case and suggest a turnaround in performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.09 would reinforce the bear case and indicate ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.0%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of around 16%, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.0% while KNX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (116K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knight-Swift beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.47%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.69%, reflecting continued concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on cost management strategies and their expected impact on margins.
2Any updates on revenue growth initiatives and market demand.
3Management's outlook on the transportation industry and economic conditions.
4Responses to recent operational challenges and how they are being addressed.
5Guidance on future earnings expectations and any changes in strategy.

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Company Snapshot

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing trucking services across North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the demand for transportation services and the company's ability to capture market share.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-10.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Knight-Swift reported an EPS of $0.09, significantly missing the estimated $0.28. This was a disappointing performance, leading to a slight decline in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on cost management to improve profitability.
Enhance operational efficiency in response to market challenges.
Commit to exploring new revenue streams to bolster growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has struggled to meet earnings estimates in recent quarters. Investors are keen to see if management can turn around the disappointing performance.

Bull Case

If Knight-Swift can demonstrate improved operational efficiency and better-than-expected revenue growth, it could signal a recovery and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to provide a clear path to profitability, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and will it meet or exceed expectations?

Given the company's recent history of missing EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for restoring investor confidence.

How is Knight-Swift addressing operational efficiency and cost management?

Investors will be looking for concrete strategies to improve margins and profitability, especially in a competitive market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Knight-Swift's potential for operational improvements and cost management strategies, which could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising investors with better-than-expected performance when focusing on efficiency.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that the market is anticipating volatility, which could work in the company's favor.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.28, it could significantly shift market sentiment and expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on whether the company can improve its profitability metrics and operational efficiency.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to an EPS of at least $0.28 would confirm the bull case and suggest a turnaround in performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.09 would reinforce the bear case and indicate ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.0%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of around 16%, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.0% while KNX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (116K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knight-Swift beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.47%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.69%, reflecting continued concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on cost management strategies and their expected impact on margins.
2Any updates on revenue growth initiatives and market demand.
3Management's outlook on the transportation industry and economic conditions.
4Responses to recent operational challenges and how they are being addressed.
5Guidance on future earnings expectations and any changes in strategy.