Equity Profile

MDGL

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$11.5B

May6Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Beats on EPS, Stock Up 7.42%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-3.25	$-4.14	+9.97%
Revenue	—	$302M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Beats on EPS, Stock Up 7.42%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-3.25	$-4.14	+9.97%
Revenue	—	$302M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on the numerical results.

What It Means

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals reported a smaller-than-expected loss per share, which contributed to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising by 7.42%. However, the company did not provide revenue figures or guidance, leaving some uncertainty about future performance. Investors may view the EPS beat as a sign of better-than-expected operational efficiency.

Company Snapshot

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for liver and metabolic diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

-$4.14

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$302M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for liver and metabolic diseases. With a market cap of $12 billion, its work is crucial in addressing unmet medical needs in the healthcare sector.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-932.88%

Avg Stock Reaction

+4.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Madrigal reported an EPS of -$2.57, significantly missing analyst expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 11.11% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management highlighted ongoing clinical trials for their lead product.
They committed to enhancing operational efficiencies.
Plans to expand their research pipeline were discussed.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are anticipating another challenging quarter with a consensus EPS of -$4.14, reflecting ongoing investment in R&D. Revenue expectations are set at $302 million, indicating some growth potential.

Bull Case

If Madrigal can exceed revenue expectations and show progress in clinical trials, it may signal strong future growth, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

A continued pattern of EPS misses could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in the company's ability to deliver on its promises.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-$4.14

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$302M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $302 million?

Surpassing revenue expectations could indicate strong demand for Madrigal's products and improve investor sentiment.

What progress has been made in clinical trials for their lead product?

Updates on clinical trials are critical for assessing the company's future growth potential and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Madrigal's potential for revenue growth due to recent advancements in their clinical trials, which could lead to higher-than-expected sales.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising on revenue, as seen in previous quarters.

Recent clinical trial data suggests stronger efficacy than previously anticipated, which could drive sales.

The options market indicates a significant expected move, suggesting that investors are bracing for potential positive news.

Key Risk

If the revenue comes in above $320 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it could either restore confidence in Madrigal's growth strategy or further erode investor trust.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $302 million and positive updates on clinical trials would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of worse than -$4.14 alongside disappointing revenue would reinforce the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.60%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±11.1% while MDGL has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

44.3%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 1.18Puts (200)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Madrigal beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +5.93%, confirming positive growth momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a likely decline of about -3.59%, which could lead to increased skepticism about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the status of clinical trials and any new data.
2Management's commentary on revenue drivers and market demand.
3Any changes to operational strategies or cost management.
4Insights into future product pipeline developments.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive positioning.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for liver and metabolic diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

-$4.14

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$302M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-932.88%

Avg Stock Reaction

+4.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Madrigal reported an EPS of -$2.57, significantly missing analyst expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 11.11% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management highlighted ongoing clinical trials for their lead product.
They committed to enhancing operational efficiencies.
Plans to expand their research pipeline were discussed.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Madrigal can exceed revenue expectations and show progress in clinical trials, it may signal strong future growth, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

A continued pattern of EPS misses could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in the company's ability to deliver on its promises.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-$4.14

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$302M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $302 million?

Surpassing revenue expectations could indicate strong demand for Madrigal's products and improve investor sentiment.

What progress has been made in clinical trials for their lead product?

Updates on clinical trials are critical for assessing the company's future growth potential and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Madrigal's potential for revenue growth due to recent advancements in their clinical trials, which could lead to higher-than-expected sales.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising on revenue, as seen in previous quarters.

Recent clinical trial data suggests stronger efficacy than previously anticipated, which could drive sales.

The options market indicates a significant expected move, suggesting that investors are bracing for potential positive news.

Key Risk

If the revenue comes in above $320 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it could either restore confidence in Madrigal's growth strategy or further erode investor trust.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $302 million and positive updates on clinical trials would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of worse than -$4.14 alongside disappointing revenue would reinforce the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.60%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±11.1% while MDGL has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

44.3%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 1.18Puts (200)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Madrigal beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +5.93%, confirming positive growth momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a likely decline of about -3.59%, which could lead to increased skepticism about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the status of clinical trials and any new data.
2Management's commentary on revenue drivers and market demand.
3Any changes to operational strategies or cost management.
4Insights into future product pipeline developments.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive positioning.