Consumer Discretionary·Homebuilding·$4.6B
Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) is a homebuilder focused on designing and constructing energy-efficient homes. As part of the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to housing market trends and consumer spending patterns.
Home Sales Volume
This metric indicates the demand for homes and can reflect overall market health.
Average Selling Price
Changes in this metric can signal shifts in consumer preferences and pricing power.
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EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
63%
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.76%
Avg Stock Reaction
-1.34%
In Q1 2026, Meritage Homes reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.86, falling short of estimates. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.12% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are cautious ahead of Meritage's Q2 earnings, given the mixed results from previous quarters. The company has a history of both beating and missing EPS estimates.
Bull Case
If Meritage can demonstrate strong home sales and maintain or improve its gross margins, it could signal a recovery in the housing market, leading to positive investor sentiment.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company reports lower sales volumes or declining margins, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate a challenging housing market.
Home Sales Volume
N/AThis metric indicates the demand for homes and can reflect overall market health.
Average Selling Price
N/AChanges in this metric can signal shifts in consumer preferences and pricing power.
Gross Margin
N/AThis metric will help assess profitability amidst rising material costs.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What will be the reported gross margin for Q2 2026?
Given rising material costs, this figure will be crucial in assessing profitability and operational efficiency.
Q2
How has home sales volume changed compared to last quarter?
This will indicate demand trends and the company's ability to compete in the current housing market.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Meritage's ability to manage costs effectively, especially in a competitive housing market.
Supporting Evidence
The company's focus on energy-efficient homes could attract buyers despite market challenges.
Previous quarters show a mixed reaction to earnings surprises, indicating potential for recovery.
Management's commitment to expanding into new markets may not be fully reflected in current valuations.
Key Risk
If gross margins exceed 25%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate centers around whether Meritage can maintain profitability and sales momentum in a fluctuating housing market.
Bull Confirmed If
A gross margin above 25% would confirm strong pricing power and cost management.
Bear Confirmed If
A decline in home sales volume below 1,500 units would signal weakening demand.
Implied Move
±N/A
There is no options market data available to gauge investor sentiment leading into the earnings report.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Meritage beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.36%, confirming a positive outlook for the housing market.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with cautious commentary, the stock may experience limited movement as investors await more clarity.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.52%, reinforcing concerns about the company's market position.
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MEDPACE HLDGS INC
Jul 20, 2026