Equity Profile

MTH

Meritage Homes Corporation

Consumer DiscretionaryHomebuilding$4.6B

Apr28Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a homebuilder focused on designing and constructing energy-efficient homes. As part of the consumer discretionary sector, it plays a crucial role in the housing market, which is influenced by consumer spending and economic conditions.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to sell homes and expand its market presence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Meritage Homes reported an EPS of $0.86, missing estimates by 15%. The stock reacted negatively, declining 1.12% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the upcoming earnings report, especially after a series of misses in the past quarters. The market is closely watching for any signs of recovery in home sales and profitability.

Bull Case

If Meritage can demonstrate strong home sales and improved margins, it could signal a rebound in demand for new homes, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and shows weak sales figures, it could raise concerns about the overall health of the housing market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the home sales volume be for Q2 2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing demand and the company's ability to navigate current market conditions.

How will Meritage address the recent earnings misses?

Management's commentary on strategies to improve profitability and sales will be key to investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in home sales, given recent trends in consumer confidence and housing demand.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

The recent trend in consumer spending suggests a potential uptick in housing demand that may not be reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If home sales volume exceeds 1,500 units, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal in determining whether Meritage can recover from recent earnings misses and improve its market position.

Bull Confirmed If

Home sales volume exceeding 1,500 units for the quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A home sales volume below 1,000 units would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.78%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while MTH has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

37.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 7.11Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Meritage beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.36% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors assess management's commentary for future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.52%, raising concerns about ongoing challenges in the housing market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on home sales volume for Q2 2026.
2Management's commentary on strategies to improve profitability.
3Insights into market conditions affecting homebuilding.
4Details on cost management and pricing strategies.
5Any guidance on future quarters and expected trends.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to sell homes and expand its market presence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Meritage Homes reported an EPS of $0.86, missing estimates by 15%. The stock reacted negatively, declining 1.12% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Meritage can demonstrate strong home sales and improved margins, it could signal a rebound in demand for new homes, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and shows weak sales figures, it could raise concerns about the overall health of the housing market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the home sales volume be for Q2 2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing demand and the company's ability to navigate current market conditions.

How will Meritage address the recent earnings misses?

Management's commentary on strategies to improve profitability and sales will be key to investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in home sales, given recent trends in consumer confidence and housing demand.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

The recent trend in consumer spending suggests a potential uptick in housing demand that may not be reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If home sales volume exceeds 1,500 units, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal in determining whether Meritage can recover from recent earnings misses and improve its market position.

Bull Confirmed If

Home sales volume exceeding 1,500 units for the quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A home sales volume below 1,000 units would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.78%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while MTH has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

37.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 7.11Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Meritage beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.36% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors assess management's commentary for future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.52%, raising concerns about ongoing challenges in the housing market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on home sales volume for Q2 2026.
2Management's commentary on strategies to improve profitability.
3Insights into market conditions affecting homebuilding.
4Details on cost management and pricing strategies.
5Any guidance on future quarters and expected trends.