Equity Profile

MTH

Meritage Homes Corporation

Consumer DiscretionaryHomebuilding$4.9B

Apr28Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a homebuilder focused on designing and constructing energy-efficient homes. As part of the consumer discretionary sector, the company plays a crucial role in the housing market, which is influenced by consumer spending and economic conditions.

Key Metrics to Watch

Home Sales Volume

This metric indicates the demand for homes and can reflect overall market conditions.

N/A

Average Selling Price

Changes in the average selling price can signal shifts in consumer preferences and market pricing power.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Meritage Homes reported an EPS of $0.86, missing estimates by 15%. The stock reacted negatively, declining 1.12% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Meritage Homes are cautious, especially after the recent earnings miss. Investors will be closely watching for signs of recovery in home sales and pricing.

Bull Case

If home sales rebound and average selling prices increase, it could signal a strong recovery in the housing market, leading to improved earnings.

Bear Case

Continued weakness in home sales or rising costs could pressure margins and lead to further earnings misses, negatively impacting the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the outlook for home sales volume in the upcoming quarter?

Home sales volume is critical for assessing demand and can significantly impact revenue and profitability.

How has the average selling price changed compared to previous quarters?

Understanding pricing trends can provide insights into market dynamics and the company's pricing power.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in home sales due to improving economic conditions and consumer confidence.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows that homebuilders often see a recovery in sales volume after a period of weakness.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move, suggesting that investors are bracing for significant news.

The recent earnings miss may have created a low bar for the upcoming report, allowing for a potential surprise.

Key Risk

If home sales volume exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the housing market's recovery and the company's ability to navigate cost pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in home sales volume, exceeding previous quarter levels, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A continued decline in average selling prices or home sales volume would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.79%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while MTH has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

37.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 7.11Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Meritage Homes beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.36%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 0.52% based on historical patterns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on home sales volume trends and forecasts for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on changes in average selling prices and their impact on margins.
3Any commentary on cost pressures and how they are being managed.
4Insights into consumer demand and market conditions affecting homebuilding.
5Management's outlook on the housing market and strategic initiatives.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Home Sales Volume

This metric indicates the demand for homes and can reflect overall market conditions.

N/A

Average Selling Price

Changes in the average selling price can signal shifts in consumer preferences and market pricing power.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Meritage Homes reported an EPS of $0.86, missing estimates by 15%. The stock reacted negatively, declining 1.12% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Meritage Homes are cautious, especially after the recent earnings miss. Investors will be closely watching for signs of recovery in home sales and pricing.

Bull Case

If home sales rebound and average selling prices increase, it could signal a strong recovery in the housing market, leading to improved earnings.

Bear Case

Continued weakness in home sales or rising costs could pressure margins and lead to further earnings misses, negatively impacting the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the outlook for home sales volume in the upcoming quarter?

Home sales volume is critical for assessing demand and can significantly impact revenue and profitability.

How has the average selling price changed compared to previous quarters?

Understanding pricing trends can provide insights into market dynamics and the company's pricing power.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in home sales due to improving economic conditions and consumer confidence.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows that homebuilders often see a recovery in sales volume after a period of weakness.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move, suggesting that investors are bracing for significant news.

The recent earnings miss may have created a low bar for the upcoming report, allowing for a potential surprise.

Key Risk

If home sales volume exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the housing market's recovery and the company's ability to navigate cost pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in home sales volume, exceeding previous quarter levels, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A continued decline in average selling prices or home sales volume would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.79%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while MTH has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

37.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 7.11Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Meritage Homes beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.36%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 0.52% based on historical patterns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on home sales volume trends and forecasts for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on changes in average selling prices and their impact on margins.
3Any commentary on cost pressures and how they are being managed.
4Insights into consumer demand and market conditions affecting homebuilding.
5Management's outlook on the housing market and strategic initiatives.