Equity Profile

NLY

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$17.6B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a leading mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in and finances residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing its investments in a fluctuating interest rate environment.

N/A

Dividend Yield

As a REIT, Annaly's ability to maintain or increase its dividend is crucial for investor confidence and reflects its earnings stability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a leading mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in and finances residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities. With a market cap of $18 billion, the company plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the mortgage market, which is influenced by interest rates and housing trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by 2.98%. Despite the positive surprise, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining dividend stability.
Commitment to managing interest rate risks effectively.
Plans to explore new investment opportunities in mortgage-backed securities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Annaly's upcoming earnings, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about interest rate fluctuations and their impact on profitability remain prevalent.

Bull Case

If Annaly continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong management and operational efficiency, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if interest rates rise significantly or if the company fails to maintain its dividend, it could lead to a negative market reaction and investor skepticism.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

How will Annaly manage its net interest margin in the face of rising interest rates?

This will be crucial for assessing the company's profitability and ability to sustain dividends.

What is the outlook for dividend stability in the upcoming quarter?

Given the importance of dividends for REIT investors, any changes could significantly impact investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Annaly's ability to adapt to changing interest rates, particularly given its historical performance in managing net interest margins.

Supporting Evidence

Annaly has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management capabilities.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historically realized, suggesting potential overreaction to earnings.

Recent trends in mortgage-backed securities may provide unexpected upside.

Key Risk

If net interest margins improve significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Annaly's ability to navigate interest rate changes while maintaining profitability and dividends.

Bull Confirmed If

A net interest margin improvement of over 1.5% would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.92%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while NLY has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.0%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (35K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Annaly beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1% on the first day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh management commentary against market conditions.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.46%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's strategy to manage interest rate risks.
2Details on the sustainability of the dividend payout.
3Insights into new investment opportunities in mortgage-backed securities.
4Management's outlook on the housing market and its impact on operations.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning in the mortgage REIT sector.

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Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a leading mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in and finances residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing its investments in a fluctuating interest rate environment.

N/A

Dividend Yield

As a REIT, Annaly's ability to maintain or increase its dividend is crucial for investor confidence and reflects its earnings stability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by 2.98%. Despite the positive surprise, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining dividend stability.
Commitment to managing interest rate risks effectively.
Plans to explore new investment opportunities in mortgage-backed securities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Annaly continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong management and operational efficiency, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if interest rates rise significantly or if the company fails to maintain its dividend, it could lead to a negative market reaction and investor skepticism.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

How will Annaly manage its net interest margin in the face of rising interest rates?

This will be crucial for assessing the company's profitability and ability to sustain dividends.

What is the outlook for dividend stability in the upcoming quarter?

Given the importance of dividends for REIT investors, any changes could significantly impact investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Annaly's ability to adapt to changing interest rates, particularly given its historical performance in managing net interest margins.

Supporting Evidence

Annaly has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management capabilities.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historically realized, suggesting potential overreaction to earnings.

Recent trends in mortgage-backed securities may provide unexpected upside.

Key Risk

If net interest margins improve significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Annaly's ability to navigate interest rate changes while maintaining profitability and dividends.

Bull Confirmed If

A net interest margin improvement of over 1.5% would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.92%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while NLY has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.0%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (35K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Annaly beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1% on the first day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh management commentary against market conditions.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.46%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's strategy to manage interest rate risks.
2Details on the sustainability of the dividend payout.
3Insights into new investment opportunities in mortgage-backed securities.
4Management's outlook on the housing market and its impact on operations.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning in the mortgage REIT sector.