Equity Profile

NLY

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$16.5B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a leading mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Dividend Yield

As a REIT, Annaly's ability to pay dividends is vital for attracting income-focused investors.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a leading mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities. As a key player in the financial sector, it provides investors with exposure to the real estate market while generating income through interest on its investments.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by nearly 3%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Annaly's upcoming earnings report, especially given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If Annaly continues its trend of EPS surprises, it could signal robust management and effective investment strategies, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its future profitability and lead to a negative stock reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given Annaly's history of EPS surprises, this number will be crucial in determining market sentiment and stock performance.

What is the outlook for dividend payments?

As a REIT, maintaining or increasing dividends is essential for investor confidence and can significantly impact stock price.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Annaly's ability to navigate interest rate changes effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Annaly has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong management performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

The company's strong dividend history may not be fully reflected in current stock valuations.

Key Risk

If Annaly's EPS exceeds $0.80, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of its growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Annaly's ability to sustain its earnings growth amidst changing interest rates and market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would signal a bearish outlook, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.92%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while NLY has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.0%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (35K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Annaly beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming the strength of its business model.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock might experience limited movement, with management commentary being key to investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, as history indicates a negative reaction to earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on interest rate impacts on the mortgage market.
2Details on the company's dividend policy moving forward.
3Insights into the net interest margin and how it has changed.
4Management's outlook on future earnings growth.
5Any commentary on market conditions affecting mortgage-backed securities.

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Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a leading mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Dividend Yield

As a REIT, Annaly's ability to pay dividends is vital for attracting income-focused investors.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by nearly 3%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Annaly's upcoming earnings report, especially given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If Annaly continues its trend of EPS surprises, it could signal robust management and effective investment strategies, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its future profitability and lead to a negative stock reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given Annaly's history of EPS surprises, this number will be crucial in determining market sentiment and stock performance.

What is the outlook for dividend payments?

As a REIT, maintaining or increasing dividends is essential for investor confidence and can significantly impact stock price.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Annaly's ability to navigate interest rate changes effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Annaly has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong management performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

The company's strong dividend history may not be fully reflected in current stock valuations.

Key Risk

If Annaly's EPS exceeds $0.80, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of its growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Annaly's ability to sustain its earnings growth amidst changing interest rates and market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would signal a bearish outlook, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.92%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while NLY has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.0%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (35K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Annaly beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming the strength of its business model.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock might experience limited movement, with management commentary being key to investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, as history indicates a negative reaction to earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on interest rate impacts on the mortgage market.
2Details on the company's dividend policy moving forward.
3Insights into the net interest margin and how it has changed.
4Management's outlook on future earnings growth.
5Any commentary on market conditions affecting mortgage-backed securities.