Equity Profile

NLY

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$15.5B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its investments.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid, which is vital for a mortgage REIT's profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT). The company invests in and manages a portfolio of mortgage-related assets, which can be influenced by interest rates and housing market trends, making it a key player in the financial landscape.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by 2.98%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Annaly's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially given the mixed performance in previous quarters. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of stability in earnings and dividends.

Bull Case

If Annaly can report strong earnings and maintain its dividend, it could signal confidence in its portfolio management and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if earnings disappoint or the dividend is cut, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price as investor confidence wanes.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

Will the dividend payout be maintained or adjusted?

As a REIT, the dividend is crucial for investor attraction, and any changes could significantly impact stock price.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Annaly to outperform due to improved management strategies and a favorable interest rate environment.

Supporting Evidence

Annaly has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, suggesting strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.80, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Annaly's ability to maintain profitability and dividends in a fluctuating interest rate environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong management and profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.68%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while NLY has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.0%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (35K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Annaly beats expectations and raises its dividend, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.19% on the following day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting the mixed sentiment seen in previous quarters.

Miss

If Annaly misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.46% on the following day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's investment strategy in the current interest rate environment.
2Details on the performance of the mortgage portfolio and any changes in asset allocation.
3Insights into the company's approach to managing dividend payouts.
4Comments on market conditions affecting the real estate sector.
5Management's outlook on future earnings and dividends.

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Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its investments.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid, which is vital for a mortgage REIT's profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by 2.98%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Annaly can report strong earnings and maintain its dividend, it could signal confidence in its portfolio management and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if earnings disappoint or the dividend is cut, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price as investor confidence wanes.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

Will the dividend payout be maintained or adjusted?

As a REIT, the dividend is crucial for investor attraction, and any changes could significantly impact stock price.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Annaly to outperform due to improved management strategies and a favorable interest rate environment.

Supporting Evidence

Annaly has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, suggesting strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.80, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Annaly's ability to maintain profitability and dividends in a fluctuating interest rate environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong management and profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.68%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while NLY has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.0%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (35K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Annaly beats expectations and raises its dividend, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.19% on the following day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting the mixed sentiment seen in previous quarters.

Miss

If Annaly misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.46% on the following day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's investment strategy in the current interest rate environment.
2Details on the performance of the mortgage portfolio and any changes in asset allocation.
3Insights into the company's approach to managing dividend payouts.
4Comments on market conditions affecting the real estate sector.
5Management's outlook on future earnings and dividends.