Equity Profile

PTON

Peloton Interactive, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryLeisure Products$2.5B

May7Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ3-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

Peloton Misses on EPS, Stock Up 8.85%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.06	$0.07	-11.76%
Revenue	—	$618M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Peloton Misses on EPS, Stock Up 8.85%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.06	$0.07	-11.76%
Revenue	—	$618M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Peloton's earnings report showed a slight miss on EPS, which typically raises concerns among investors. However, the stock reacted positively, increasing by 8.85%. This could indicate that investors are optimistic about the company's future despite the earnings miss.

Company Snapshot

Peloton Interactive, Inc. is a fitness technology company that offers connected exercise equipment and subscription-based workout classes....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show whether Peloton can return to positive earnings after recent losses.

$0.07

Revenue

Revenue growth is crucial for Peloton to demonstrate demand for its products and services, especially as competition increases.

$618M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Peloton Interactive, Inc. is a fitness technology company that offers connected exercise equipment and subscription-based workout classes. As part of the consumer discretionary sector, Peloton is influenced by trends in consumer spending and health and wellness, which have gained popularity in recent years.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+119.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.96%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Peloton reported an EPS of -$0.09, missing estimates and reflecting ongoing challenges in profitability. The stock fell significantly following the announcement, indicating investor concern.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving customer retention and engagement.
Plans to enhance product offerings and expand into new markets.
Commitment to controlling costs and improving operational efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Peloton to report a modest profit this quarter, with EPS projected at $0.07 and revenue at $618M. Investors are keen to see if the company can meet or exceed these expectations.

Bull Case

If Peloton exceeds EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal a turnaround in its business model, boosting investor confidence and potentially driving the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Peloton misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its long-term viability and ability to compete, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.07

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show whether Peloton can return to positive earnings after recent losses.

Revenue

$618M

Revenue growth is crucial for Peloton to demonstrate demand for its products and services, especially as competition increases.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Can Peloton achieve an EPS of $0.07 or better this quarter?

This specific EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after recent losses and could indicate a positive shift in the company's financial health.

What is the revenue growth trajectory, particularly in subscription services?

Understanding revenue growth, especially from subscriptions, will help gauge demand for Peloton's offerings and its ability to retain customers.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Peloton's ability to rebound, as recent product enhancements and marketing strategies could drive stronger-than-expected demand.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a move of 12.02%, indicating potential for volatility that could favor a positive surprise.

The recent insider selling, while concerning, may not reflect overall confidence in the long-term strategy.

Historical patterns show that Peloton has a 50% chance of beating EPS estimates, indicating potential for upside.

Key Risk

If Peloton's revenue exceeds $625M, it could challenge the bearish outlook and shift sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are critical as they will indicate whether Peloton can stabilize its financial performance after a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.07 or better, along with revenue of $618M or more, would confirm a positive outlook for Peloton.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 or revenue significantly under $612M would reinforce concerns about Peloton's market position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.02%

Historical Avg

±12.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings announcement, suggesting that investors expect volatility based on the results.

Options are pricing ±14.9% while PTON has averaged ±12.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

2.5%

30d HV

59.8%

Calls (2.6M)P/C Ratio: 0.66Puts (79K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 21 (52%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 11 of 21 faded and 10 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.5% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$118,384.23

23,476 sh

1 insider

Net

$118,384.23

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Operating OfficerKirol Charles Peter
$118,384.23

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Peloton beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.45%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors digest management's commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 5.81%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-FLMaria Elvira SalazarRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on customer retention rates and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Updates on new product launches and their impact on sales.
3Insights into subscription growth and any changes in pricing strategy.
4Management's commentary on cost control measures and operational efficiency.
5Any guidance on future quarters and expectations for continued growth.

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Company Snapshot

Peloton Interactive, Inc. is a fitness technology company that offers connected exercise equipment and subscription-based workout classes....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show whether Peloton can return to positive earnings after recent losses.

$0.07

Revenue

Revenue growth is crucial for Peloton to demonstrate demand for its products and services, especially as competition increases.

$618M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+119.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.96%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving customer retention and engagement.
Plans to enhance product offerings and expand into new markets.
Commitment to controlling costs and improving operational efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Peloton to report a modest profit this quarter, with EPS projected at $0.07 and revenue at $618M. Investors are keen to see if the company can meet or exceed these expectations.

Bull Case

If Peloton exceeds EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal a turnaround in its business model, boosting investor confidence and potentially driving the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Peloton misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its long-term viability and ability to compete, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.07

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show whether Peloton can return to positive earnings after recent losses.

Revenue

$618M

Revenue growth is crucial for Peloton to demonstrate demand for its products and services, especially as competition increases.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Can Peloton achieve an EPS of $0.07 or better this quarter?

This specific EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after recent losses and could indicate a positive shift in the company's financial health.

What is the revenue growth trajectory, particularly in subscription services?

Understanding revenue growth, especially from subscriptions, will help gauge demand for Peloton's offerings and its ability to retain customers.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Peloton's ability to rebound, as recent product enhancements and marketing strategies could drive stronger-than-expected demand.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a move of 12.02%, indicating potential for volatility that could favor a positive surprise.

The recent insider selling, while concerning, may not reflect overall confidence in the long-term strategy.

Historical patterns show that Peloton has a 50% chance of beating EPS estimates, indicating potential for upside.

Key Risk

If Peloton's revenue exceeds $625M, it could challenge the bearish outlook and shift sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are critical as they will indicate whether Peloton can stabilize its financial performance after a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.07 or better, along with revenue of $618M or more, would confirm a positive outlook for Peloton.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 or revenue significantly under $612M would reinforce concerns about Peloton's market position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.02%

Historical Avg

±12.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings announcement, suggesting that investors expect volatility based on the results.

Options are pricing ±14.9% while PTON has averaged ±12.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

2.5%

30d HV

59.8%

Calls (2.6M)P/C Ratio: 0.66Puts (79K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 21 (52%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$118,384.23

23,476 sh

1 insider

Net

$118,384.23

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Operating OfficerKirol Charles Peter
$118,384.23

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Peloton beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.45%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors digest management's commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 5.81%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-FLMaria Elvira SalazarRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on customer retention rates and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Updates on new product launches and their impact on sales.
3Insights into subscription growth and any changes in pricing strategy.
4Management's commentary on cost control measures and operational efficiency.
5Any guidance on future quarters and expectations for continued growth.