Equity Profile

RDN

Radian Group Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$4.5B

May6Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:46 PM EDT

Radian Group Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.42%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.89	$1.21	-23.93%
Revenue	—	$401M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Radian Group Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.42%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.89	$1.21	-23.93%
Revenue	—	$401M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Radian Group Inc. reported earnings that fell short of expectations, particularly in EPS. Despite this miss, the stock saw a slight increase of 0.42%, indicating that investors may have had lower expectations or are focusing on other factors. Without additional commentary from management, the implications for future performance remain unclear.

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Radian has managed its costs and revenues.

$1.21

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its mortgage insurance and related services, impacting overall financial health.

$401M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. The company plays a crucial role in facilitating home ownership and real estate investment, which are key components of the economy.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Radian reported an EPS of $1.16, exceeding expectations by 4.5%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.25% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Radian to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, with a consensus EPS of $1.21. Revenue expectations are set at $401 million, suggesting stable performance.

Bull Case

If Radian exceeds the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal strong demand for its mortgage insurance products, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about the health of the mortgage market and lead to a negative reaction in the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.21

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Radian has managed its costs and revenues.

Revenue

$401M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its mortgage insurance and related services, impacting overall financial health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Radian's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.21?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance and could positively influence investor sentiment.

What is the revenue outlook for the upcoming quarters, particularly in relation to the $401 million consensus?

Revenue performance is critical to understanding the company's growth trajectory and market demand for its services.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Radian's ability to capitalize on a recovering housing market, which could drive stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Radian has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong operational management.

The options market suggests a higher expected volatility, which could reflect underlying market confidence.

Recent insider selling may not necessarily indicate a lack of confidence in the company's future prospects.

Key Risk

If Radian reports an EPS below $1.14, it could challenge the consensus view of ongoing strength in the mortgage finance sector.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be closely watched as they could indicate the health of the mortgage finance sector amid changing economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.25 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and positive market conditions.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.14 would raise concerns about the company's profitability and market position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.1%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility.

Options are pricing ±5.3% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

21.5%

Calls (600)P/C Ratio: 3.33Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.0% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.1M

30,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$1.1M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Sr EVP, General CounselHoffman Edward J
$1.1M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.96%, confirming strong demand for its mortgage products.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 1.63%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the demand for mortgage insurance and its impact on revenue.
2Insights into the company's cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Comments on market conditions and how they may affect future earnings.
4Details on any changes in underwriting standards or risk management practices.
5Management's outlook on the housing market and its implications for Radian's business.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Radian has managed its costs and revenues.

$1.21

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its mortgage insurance and related services, impacting overall financial health.

$401M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Radian reported an EPS of $1.16, exceeding expectations by 4.5%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.25% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Radian to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, with a consensus EPS of $1.21. Revenue expectations are set at $401 million, suggesting stable performance.

Bull Case

If Radian exceeds the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal strong demand for its mortgage insurance products, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about the health of the mortgage market and lead to a negative reaction in the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.21

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Radian has managed its costs and revenues.

Revenue

$401M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its mortgage insurance and related services, impacting overall financial health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Radian's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.21?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance and could positively influence investor sentiment.

What is the revenue outlook for the upcoming quarters, particularly in relation to the $401 million consensus?

Revenue performance is critical to understanding the company's growth trajectory and market demand for its services.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Radian's ability to capitalize on a recovering housing market, which could drive stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Radian has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong operational management.

The options market suggests a higher expected volatility, which could reflect underlying market confidence.

Recent insider selling may not necessarily indicate a lack of confidence in the company's future prospects.

Key Risk

If Radian reports an EPS below $1.14, it could challenge the consensus view of ongoing strength in the mortgage finance sector.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be closely watched as they could indicate the health of the mortgage finance sector amid changing economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.25 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and positive market conditions.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.14 would raise concerns about the company's profitability and market position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.1%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility.

Options are pricing ±5.3% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

21.5%

Calls (600)P/C Ratio: 3.33Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.0% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.1M

30,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$1.1M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Sr EVP, General CounselHoffman Edward J
$1.1M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.96%, confirming strong demand for its mortgage products.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 1.63%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the demand for mortgage insurance and its impact on revenue.
2Insights into the company's cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Comments on market conditions and how they may affect future earnings.
4Details on any changes in underwriting standards or risk management practices.
5Management's outlook on the housing market and its implications for Radian's business.