Financials·Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance·$4.8B
Radian Group Inc (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. As a key player in the mortgage insurance market, RDN helps lenders manage risk and provides consumers with access to home financing, making it an important part of the housing ecosystem.
EPS
Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
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EPS Beat Streak
8Q
EPS Beat Rate
100%
Avg EPS Surprise
+14.04%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.96%
In Q4 2025, RDN reported an EPS of $1.16, surpassing estimates by 4.5%. The stock experienced a slight decline of 1.25% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are expecting RDN to report solid earnings driven by strong mortgage demand, with a consensus EPS of $1.21. However, revenue estimates show a wide range, indicating uncertainty in market conditions.
Bull Case
If RDN beats the EPS estimate and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for mortgage insurance and lead to a positive market reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if RDN misses expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about the overall health of the mortgage market and negatively impact the stock.
EPS
$1.21Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$401MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What is the outlook for mortgage insurance demand in the upcoming quarters?
Given the current economic climate, understanding demand trends will be crucial for assessing RDN's future performance.
Q2
How does RDN plan to manage risk in a potentially volatile housing market?
Investors will be keen to hear about risk management strategies, especially in light of fluctuating interest rates and housing prices.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate RDN's ability to capitalize on a rebound in the housing market, which could lead to stronger-than-expected demand for mortgage insurance.
Supporting Evidence
RDN has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating a strong operational performance.
The housing market has shown signs of recovery, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key Risk
If mortgage demand rebounds significantly, it could challenge the current consensus estimates.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether RDN can sustain its earnings momentum amid changing economic conditions.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $1.23 or higher, along with revenue exceeding $450M, would confirm a strong bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $1.14 or revenue falling below $350M would support a bearish outlook.
Implied Move
±N/A
There is no options market data available to gauge investor sentiment ahead of the earnings report.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If RDN beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.96%, confirming strong market demand.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop, though exact figures are not available.
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PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE C Class B
May 4, 2026