Information Technology·Semiconductors·$45.0B
STMicroelectronics (STM) is a leading semiconductor company that designs and manufactures a wide range of electronic components. As a key player in the Information Technology sector, STM is crucial for various industries, including automotive, consumer electronics, and industrial applications, particularly as demand for smart devices and AI technology continues to grow.
EPS
Earnings per share is a critical measure of the company's profitability and will indicate how well STM is managing costs and generating revenue.
Revenue Growth
Revenue growth will reflect the company's ability to capture market demand and expand its customer base, especially in the semiconductor space.
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STMicroelectronics (STM) is a leading semiconductor company that designs and manufactures a wide range of electronic components. As a key player in the Information Technology sector, STM is crucial for various industries, including automotive, consumer electronics, and industrial applications, particularly as demand for smart devices and AI technology continues to grow.
EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
63%
Avg EPS Surprise
-5.28%
Avg Stock Reaction
-5.32%
In Q1 2026, STM reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13, which was significantly below the expected $0.19, resulting in a negative surprise of 32.64%. Despite this, the stock rose by 10.81% the following day, indicating some investor optimism.
Management Promises & Guidance
Overall, expectations for STM's upcoming earnings are mixed, with uncertainty surrounding its ability to meet or exceed prior performance given recent earnings misses.
Bull Case
If STM can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it could signal a recovery in demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if STM fails to meet earnings expectations again, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and ability to navigate market challenges, leading to a further decline in stock price.
EPS
N/AEarnings per share is a critical measure of the company's profitability and will indicate how well STM is managing costs and generating revenue.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth will reflect the company's ability to capture market demand and expand its customer base, especially in the semiconductor space.
Gross Margin
N/AGross margin is important as it shows how efficiently STM is producing its products and managing its costs relative to sales.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?
The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether STM can recover from its previous earnings misses and regain investor confidence.
Q2
How does STM plan to address recent revenue declines?
Understanding STM's strategy to boost revenue is essential for assessing its future growth potential in a competitive semiconductor market.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating STM's potential for a turnaround, especially given the recent surge in demand for semiconductors across various sectors.
Supporting Evidence
The options market is pricing a 32.57% move, indicating significant expectations for volatility, which could reflect underlying confidence in a rebound.
STM's recent stock price increase after disappointing earnings suggests that investors may be looking for signs of recovery rather than focusing solely on past performance.
Key Risk
If STM's revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could invalidate the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a series of earnings misses, and the market is looking for signs of improvement.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.20 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery in profitability.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about STM's operational challenges.
Implied Move
±32.57%
Historical Avg
±9.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±32.6% while STM has averaged ±9.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Cross-company pattern from 12 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Information Technology
n=12Fade rate: 1 of 9 (11%)
This setup has occurred 12 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 8 of 9 (89%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.1%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If STM beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 10% on average, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance on future growth.
Miss
Should STM miss again, the average historical move suggests a decline of around 3.56%, which could heighten concerns about its market position.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
MEDPACE HLDGS INC
Jul 20, 2026