Materials·Aluminum·$17.4B
Alcoa Corp (AA) is a leading producer of aluminum, which is essential for various industries including automotive, aerospace, and construction. As a key player in the materials sector, Alcoa's performance is closely tied to global demand for aluminum and broader economic trends.
EPS
Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Alcoa is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for aluminum products.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+36.16%
Avg Stock Reaction
-0.75%
In Q1 2026, Alcoa reported an EPS of $1.40, which was below the expected $1.60, reflecting challenges in meeting market expectations. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.04% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Alcoa's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue. The consensus estimates suggest a recovery from the previous quarter's miss.
Bull Case
If Alcoa meets or exceeds the consensus EPS of $2.20, it could signal a strong recovery and improved operational efficiency, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear Case
Conversely, if Alcoa fails to meet expectations again, it may raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges and market demand, leading to negative sentiment.
EPS
$2.20Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Alcoa is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$3.9BRevenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for aluminum products.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will Alcoa's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.20?
A strong EPS figure would indicate effective cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue expectations for the aluminum segment?
Revenue performance will reflect market demand and pricing power, which are critical for assessing Alcoa's growth prospects.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Alcoa's ability to rebound from previous challenges, particularly if operational efficiencies have improved.
Supporting Evidence
Alcoa's historical EPS beat rate of 75% suggests a strong potential for positive surprises.
Recent trends in aluminum prices indicate a potential for higher revenue than expected.
The stock's slight increase after a disappointing Q1 suggests underlying resilience.
Key Risk
If aluminum prices show unexpected strength, it could significantly alter market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results are pivotal as they will either reinforce or challenge the narrative of recovery in Alcoa's operations.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $2.20 or higher would validate the bull case, indicating strong recovery and operational performance.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $1.81 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing challenges.
Implied Move
±4.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings announcement, reflecting uncertainty about the results.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Alcoa beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 1.05%, confirming a positive trend.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in management's commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a slight decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of 0.14%.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP
Jul 14, 2026