Equity Profile

AA

Alcoa Corporation

MaterialsAluminum$12.8B

Jul15Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Alcoa Corporation (AA) is a leading producer of aluminum and operates in the materials sector. The company plays a crucial role in the aluminum industry, which is essential for various applications including construction, automotive, and aerospace, making it a key player in the global economy.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Alcoa is managing its costs and generating income.

$2.20

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for aluminum products, which is vital for assessing growth.

$3.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+36.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Alcoa reported an EPS of $1.40, falling short of the expected $1.60, which marked a 12.5% negative surprise. The stock saw a minor increase of 0.04% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Alcoa's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue compared to the previous quarter.

Bull Case

If Alcoa can exceed the EPS estimate of $2.20, it may signal strong operational efficiency and demand for aluminum, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the aluminum market and impact investor confidence.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.20

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Alcoa is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

$3.9B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for aluminum products, which is vital for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Alcoa's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.20?

A beat on EPS would indicate improved profitability and could positively influence investor sentiment.

What is the outlook for revenue growth given the current demand for aluminum?

Understanding revenue growth will help gauge the company's ability to capitalize on market opportunities and manage costs.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a strong recovery in aluminum prices, driven by increased infrastructure spending and demand in the automotive sector.

Supporting Evidence

Alcoa's historical EPS beat rate of 75% suggests a strong likelihood of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, reflecting uncertainty that could favor a positive surprise.

Recent trends in aluminum demand indicate a rebound that may not be fully captured in analyst forecasts.

Key Risk

If aluminum prices rise significantly, it could lead to a much stronger revenue performance than currently anticipated.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Alcoa can recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate solid growth in a challenging market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.00 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.3%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of around 18.3%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.3% while AA has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

52.1%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (375K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alcoa beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.8%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see limited movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.1%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance in the aluminum market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on aluminum pricing trends and how they may impact future revenue.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into demand from key sectors like automotive and construction.
4Guidance on expected production levels and capacity utilization for the upcoming quarters.
5Any potential impacts from global economic conditions on aluminum demand.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Fastenal Company

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Alcoa is managing its costs and generating income.

$2.20

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for aluminum products, which is vital for assessing growth.

$3.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+36.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Alcoa reported an EPS of $1.40, falling short of the expected $1.60, which marked a 12.5% negative surprise. The stock saw a minor increase of 0.04% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Alcoa's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue compared to the previous quarter.

Bull Case

If Alcoa can exceed the EPS estimate of $2.20, it may signal strong operational efficiency and demand for aluminum, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the aluminum market and impact investor confidence.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.20

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Alcoa is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

$3.9B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for aluminum products, which is vital for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Alcoa's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.20?

A beat on EPS would indicate improved profitability and could positively influence investor sentiment.

What is the outlook for revenue growth given the current demand for aluminum?

Understanding revenue growth will help gauge the company's ability to capitalize on market opportunities and manage costs.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a strong recovery in aluminum prices, driven by increased infrastructure spending and demand in the automotive sector.

Supporting Evidence

Alcoa's historical EPS beat rate of 75% suggests a strong likelihood of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, reflecting uncertainty that could favor a positive surprise.

Recent trends in aluminum demand indicate a rebound that may not be fully captured in analyst forecasts.

Key Risk

If aluminum prices rise significantly, it could lead to a much stronger revenue performance than currently anticipated.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Alcoa can recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate solid growth in a challenging market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.00 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.3%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of around 18.3%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.3% while AA has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

52.1%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (375K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alcoa beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.8%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see limited movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.1%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance in the aluminum market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on aluminum pricing trends and how they may impact future revenue.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into demand from key sectors like automotive and construction.
4Guidance on expected production levels and capacity utilization for the upcoming quarters.
5Any potential impacts from global economic conditions on aluminum demand.