Equity Profile

FAST

Fastenal Company

IndustrialsTrading Companies & Distributors$58.9B

Jul13Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Fastenal Company is a leading distributor of industrial and construction supplies, operating in the industrials sector. With a market cap of $59 billion, it plays a crucial role in the supply chain, particularly as businesses focus on efficiency and cost management in a fluctuating economy.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps assess the company's financial health.

$0.33

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

$2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FAST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Fastenal reported an EPS of $0.30, matching analyst expectations. However, the stock fell by 6.85% the next day, indicating market disappointment despite meeting estimates.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Fastenal's upcoming earnings, expecting it to meet or slightly exceed EPS and revenue estimates.

Bull Case

If Fastenal can demonstrate strong demand and effective cost management, it may exceed expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected growth or faces supply chain challenges, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.33

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps assess the company's financial health.

Revenue

$2.3B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Fastenal's revenue exceed the $2.3 billion consensus estimate?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing demand and operational efficiency, which will heavily influence market sentiment.

Can the company maintain or improve its EPS of $0.33?

EPS is a direct measure of profitability, and any deviation from expectations could significantly impact stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the resilience of Fastenal's supply chain management, which could drive better-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical performance shows a tendency to rebound from minor misses.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that investors are bracing for unexpected results.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $2.4 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Fastenal's ability to sustain growth amidst economic uncertainties and supply chain pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.34 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $2.4 billion, would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.32 or revenue under $2.3 billion would suggest ongoing challenges in demand or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.65%

Historical Avg

±5.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.7% while FAST has averaged ±5.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.8%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.42Puts (13K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Fastenal beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.1%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further guidance on future performance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about -2.09%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain improvements or challenges.
2Details on customer demand trends across different sectors.
3Management's outlook on pricing strategies and cost control.
4Insights into new product lines or services being introduced.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting business operations.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps assess the company's financial health.

$0.33

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

$2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FAST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Fastenal reported an EPS of $0.30, matching analyst expectations. However, the stock fell by 6.85% the next day, indicating market disappointment despite meeting estimates.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Fastenal's upcoming earnings, expecting it to meet or slightly exceed EPS and revenue estimates.

Bull Case

If Fastenal can demonstrate strong demand and effective cost management, it may exceed expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected growth or faces supply chain challenges, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.33

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps assess the company's financial health.

Revenue

$2.3B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Fastenal's revenue exceed the $2.3 billion consensus estimate?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing demand and operational efficiency, which will heavily influence market sentiment.

Can the company maintain or improve its EPS of $0.33?

EPS is a direct measure of profitability, and any deviation from expectations could significantly impact stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the resilience of Fastenal's supply chain management, which could drive better-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical performance shows a tendency to rebound from minor misses.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that investors are bracing for unexpected results.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $2.4 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Fastenal's ability to sustain growth amidst economic uncertainties and supply chain pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.34 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $2.4 billion, would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.32 or revenue under $2.3 billion would suggest ongoing challenges in demand or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.65%

Historical Avg

±5.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.7% while FAST has averaged ±5.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.8%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.42Puts (13K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Fastenal beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.1%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further guidance on future performance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about -2.09%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain improvements or challenges.
2Details on customer demand trends across different sectors.
3Management's outlook on pricing strategies and cost control.
4Insights into new product lines or services being introduced.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting business operations.