Equity Profile

FAST

Fastenal Company

IndustrialsTrading Companies & Distributors$53.6B

Jul13Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Fastenal Company is a leading distributor of industrial and construction supplies, operating in the Industrials sector. With a market cap of $51 billion, it plays a crucial role in supporting businesses with essential products, especially as industries recover and grow post-pandemic.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.30

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects demand for Fastenal's products and services, indicating overall business performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FAST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Fastenal reported an EPS of $0.30, matching analyst expectations, but the stock fell by 6.85% the following day. The company has shown mixed performance in recent quarters, with some earnings surprises leading to stock declines.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautious ahead of Fastenal's earnings report, given the company's recent performance and lack of guidance. The market is looking for signs of recovery and growth in revenue.

Bull Case

If Fastenal can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve its gross margins, it could signal a robust recovery in demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing revenue or lower margins, it may raise concerns about ongoing demand challenges, potentially leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.30

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth reflects demand for Fastenal's products and services, indicating overall business performance.

Gross Margin

N/A

Gross margin provides insight into the company's pricing power and cost management, which are critical for maintaining profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the revenue growth rate compared to last year?

Investors will closely watch this figure to gauge demand trends and the company's ability to capitalize on market opportunities.

How is Fastenal managing its gross margins in the current economic environment?

Understanding margin management will provide insights into the company's pricing strategy and cost control amid inflationary pressures.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate Fastenal's ability to leverage its extensive distribution network to capture market share in a recovering economy.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent stock declines, Fastenal's strong brand and customer relationships position it well for growth.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant market reactions.

The company's historical resilience in past downturns could suggest better-than-expected performance.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook and shift investor sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and consumer demand.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth of at least 10% year-over-year would confirm a strong recovery and positive market sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

Any revenue decline or stagnation would indicate ongoing demand issues and could lead to a negative market reaction.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.65%

Historical Avg

±5.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.7% while FAST has averaged ±5.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.8%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.42Puts (13K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Fastenal beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.1%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line result with cautious commentary may lead to muted stock movement, as investors await clearer signs of growth.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could drop by approximately 2.09%, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain improvements and their impact on product availability.
2Insights into customer demand trends across different sectors.
3Management's outlook on pricing strategies in response to inflation.
4Details on new product lines or services that could drive future growth.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the distribution market.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.30

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects demand for Fastenal's products and services, indicating overall business performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FAST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautious ahead of Fastenal's earnings report, given the company's recent performance and lack of guidance. The market is looking for signs of recovery and growth in revenue.

Bull Case

If Fastenal can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve its gross margins, it could signal a robust recovery in demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing revenue or lower margins, it may raise concerns about ongoing demand challenges, potentially leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.30

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth reflects demand for Fastenal's products and services, indicating overall business performance.

Gross Margin

N/A

Gross margin provides insight into the company's pricing power and cost management, which are critical for maintaining profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the revenue growth rate compared to last year?

Investors will closely watch this figure to gauge demand trends and the company's ability to capitalize on market opportunities.

How is Fastenal managing its gross margins in the current economic environment?

Understanding margin management will provide insights into the company's pricing strategy and cost control amid inflationary pressures.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate Fastenal's ability to leverage its extensive distribution network to capture market share in a recovering economy.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent stock declines, Fastenal's strong brand and customer relationships position it well for growth.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant market reactions.

The company's historical resilience in past downturns could suggest better-than-expected performance.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook and shift investor sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and consumer demand.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth of at least 10% year-over-year would confirm a strong recovery and positive market sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

Any revenue decline or stagnation would indicate ongoing demand issues and could lead to a negative market reaction.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.65%

Historical Avg

±5.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.7% while FAST has averaged ±5.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.8%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.42Puts (13K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Fastenal beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.1%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line result with cautious commentary may lead to muted stock movement, as investors await clearer signs of growth.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could drop by approximately 2.09%, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain improvements and their impact on product availability.
2Insights into customer demand trends across different sectors.
3Management's outlook on pricing strategies in response to inflation.
4Details on new product lines or services that could drive future growth.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the distribution market.