Equity Profile

AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

Information TechnologyCommunications Equipment$9.0B

May7Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:10 PM EDT

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.07	$-0.05	+32.04%
Revenue	—	$155M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.07	$-0.05	+32.04%
Revenue	—	$155M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Applied Optoelectronics reported a wider loss per share than expected, which may raise concerns among investors. However, the stock reaction remained unchanged at 0.00%, indicating that investors may have anticipated the results. The lack of revenue data and guidance leaves uncertainty about the company's future performance.

Company Snapshot

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is a technology company that specializes in manufacturing optical networking products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$-0.05

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

$155M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is a technology company that specializes in manufacturing optical networking products. As demand for high-speed internet and data transmission continues to grow, AAOI plays a crucial role in providing the necessary equipment for telecommunications and data centers.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+38.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, AAOI reported an EPS of $-0.01, significantly beating expectations of $-0.16. However, the stock dropped by 7.62% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the positive surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about AAOI's upcoming earnings, with expectations of a slight loss but improved revenue compared to previous quarters.

Bull Case

If AAOI can beat the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in demand for its products, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given recent insider selling.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.05

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$155M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AAOI's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $155M?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand for AAOI's products and could influence investor sentiment.

Can AAOI achieve a better EPS than the consensus estimate of $-0.05?

A stronger-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which are vital for recovery.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate AAOI's potential for a turnaround as recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

AAOI has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Recent insider selling may not reflect a lack of confidence in the company's future, as it could be part of individual financial strategies.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate a surprise in either direction.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $159M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it reflects the company's ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on demand.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving revenue growth above $155M with an EPS better than $-0.05 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Failing to meet the revenue estimate and reporting an EPS worse than $-0.08 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.96%

Historical Avg

±7.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.5% while AAOI has averaged ±7.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

3.3%

30d HV

137.0%

Calls (1.6M)P/C Ratio: 1.46Puts (4.5M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAOI beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.51%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 3.87%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends for optical networking products.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into customer orders and backlog status.
4Any guidance on future revenue expectations or market conditions.
5Details on competitive positioning and market share.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is a technology company that specializes in manufacturing optical networking products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$-0.05

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

$155M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+38.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about AAOI's upcoming earnings, with expectations of a slight loss but improved revenue compared to previous quarters.

Bull Case

If AAOI can beat the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in demand for its products, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given recent insider selling.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.05

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$155M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AAOI's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $155M?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand for AAOI's products and could influence investor sentiment.

Can AAOI achieve a better EPS than the consensus estimate of $-0.05?

A stronger-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which are vital for recovery.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate AAOI's potential for a turnaround as recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

AAOI has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Recent insider selling may not reflect a lack of confidence in the company's future, as it could be part of individual financial strategies.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate a surprise in either direction.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $159M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it reflects the company's ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on demand.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving revenue growth above $155M with an EPS better than $-0.05 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Failing to meet the revenue estimate and reporting an EPS worse than $-0.08 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.96%

Historical Avg

±7.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.5% while AAOI has averaged ±7.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

3.3%

30d HV

137.0%

Calls (1.6M)P/C Ratio: 1.46Puts (4.5M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAOI beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.51%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 3.87%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends for optical networking products.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into customer orders and backlog status.
4Any guidance on future revenue expectations or market conditions.
5Details on competitive positioning and market share.