Equity Profile

AAP

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$3.3B

May21Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:30 AM EDT

Advance Auto Parts Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.03%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.77	$0.43	+95.43%
Revenue	N/A	$2.6B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Advance Auto Parts Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.03%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.77	$0.43	+95.43%
Revenue	N/A	$2.6B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Advance Auto Parts reported a strong earnings per share, significantly beating expectations, which led to a slight increase in the stock price. However, the lack of revenue data and guidance leaves some uncertainty about future performance. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS surprise but will likely look for more information in future reports.

Company Snapshot

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) is a leading retailer of automotive parts and accessories in the consumer discretionary sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

0.43

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for automotive parts.

2.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) is a leading retailer of automotive parts and accessories in the consumer discretionary sector. The company plays a crucial role in the automotive retail industry, catering to both professional installers and do-it-yourself customers, which is significant as vehicle maintenance and repair needs continue to grow.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+21.98%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.72%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Advance Auto Parts reported an EPS of $0.86, significantly beating estimates. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leading to mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving inventory management.
Enhance customer experience through digital initiatives.
Commit to cost-cutting measures to improve margins.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a modest performance from Advance Auto Parts this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $2.6 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of recovery in sales and profitability.

Bull Case

If the company can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate a turnaround in its performance, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing challenges in the automotive retail sector.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.43

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

2.6B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for automotive parts.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.43?

A strong EPS performance could indicate improved profitability and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's outlook and ability to navigate current market challenges.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a strong earnings surprise given the recent positive trends in automotive sales and the company's cost-cutting measures.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of exceeding EPS estimates, with a 63% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating a larger reaction than what consensus estimates imply.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS significantly above $0.50, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Advance Auto Parts can sustain its recent positive earnings surprises or if it will revert to disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and growth potential.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would suggest ongoing struggles and could lead to a significant sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.04%

Historical Avg

±15.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.0% while AAP has averaged ±15.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

2.0%

30d HV

53.3%

Calls (445K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (133K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 21 (33%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 14 of 21 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.4%, with a raw directional average of -3.0% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAP beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.85%, confirming a positive trend in performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 9.27%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over the company's future.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on inventory management improvements.
2Details on digital initiatives to enhance customer experience.
3Any commentary on cost-cutting measures and their impact on margins.
4Insights into market demand for automotive parts and accessories.
5Management's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters.

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Company Snapshot

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) is a leading retailer of automotive parts and accessories in the consumer discretionary sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

0.43

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for automotive parts.

2.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+21.98%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.72%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Advance Auto Parts reported an EPS of $0.86, significantly beating estimates. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leading to mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving inventory management.
Enhance customer experience through digital initiatives.
Commit to cost-cutting measures to improve margins.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate a turnaround in its performance, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing challenges in the automotive retail sector.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.43

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

2.6B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for automotive parts.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.43?

A strong EPS performance could indicate improved profitability and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's outlook and ability to navigate current market challenges.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a strong earnings surprise given the recent positive trends in automotive sales and the company's cost-cutting measures.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of exceeding EPS estimates, with a 63% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating a larger reaction than what consensus estimates imply.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS significantly above $0.50, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Advance Auto Parts can sustain its recent positive earnings surprises or if it will revert to disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and growth potential.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would suggest ongoing struggles and could lead to a significant sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.04%

Historical Avg

±15.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.0% while AAP has averaged ±15.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

2.0%

30d HV

53.3%

Calls (445K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (133K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 21 (33%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAP beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.85%, confirming a positive trend in performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 9.27%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over the company's future.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on inventory management improvements.
2Details on digital initiatives to enhance customer experience.
3Any commentary on cost-cutting measures and their impact on margins.
4Insights into market demand for automotive parts and accessories.
5Management's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters.