Equity Profile

ADC

Agree Realty Corporation

Real EstateRetail REITs$9.3B

Oct29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on acquiring and managing retail properties. With a market cap of $9 billion, it plays a significant role in the retail real estate sector, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and the evolving landscape of retail shopping.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Expected to be around $1.09.

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract tenants and maintain occupancy rates, which is vital for a REIT.

Not available this quarter.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.12%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Agree Realty reported an EPS of $1.04, falling short of the expected $1.09, leading to a slight decline in stock price the following day. This continues a trend of missing earnings expectations in recent quarters.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially given the company's recent history of missing earnings estimates. The market is looking for signs of improvement in occupancy and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If ADC can surprise with better-than-expected earnings and show improvement in occupancy rates, it could signal a recovery in the retail sector, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued misses on earnings and weak revenue growth could raise concerns about the company's ability to manage its properties effectively in a challenging retail environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Expected to be around $1.09.

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue Growth

Not available this quarter.

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract tenants and maintain occupancy rates, which is vital for a REIT.

Occupancy Rate

Not available this quarter.

A high occupancy rate indicates strong demand for the properties and effective management.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the occupancy rate be this quarter?

The occupancy rate is crucial for understanding the demand for ADC's properties and its revenue potential.

Will ADC provide any guidance on future revenue growth?

Guidance on revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's outlook and ability to navigate the retail landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for ADC to stabilize its occupancy rates, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings despite recent misses.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 3.54% move, but historical averages suggest the stock has moved less than this in previous quarters.

The recent trend of missed earnings could lead to lower expectations, allowing for a surprise upside.

The retail sector is showing signs of recovery, which could positively impact ADC's performance.

Key Risk

If occupancy rates exceed 95%, it could shift the narrative and lead to a positive reassessment of the company's prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ADC can turn around its recent performance and improve its occupancy rates amidst a challenging retail environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.09 or higher, along with a reported occupancy rate above 95%, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 and an occupancy rate below 90% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.54%

Historical Avg

±0.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.54%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±3.5% while ADC has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

14.2%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (3K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADC beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see an average move of +1.8%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

If ADC misses earnings again, history suggests a potential average decline of -0.12%, indicating continued investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on occupancy rates and tenant demand.
2Management's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters.
3Comments on how the company is managing its properties in the current retail environment.
4Insights into any new acquisitions or developments in the pipeline.
5Any commentary on the impact of economic conditions on retail performance.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Expected to be around $1.09.

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract tenants and maintain occupancy rates, which is vital for a REIT.

Not available this quarter.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.12%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ADC can surprise with better-than-expected earnings and show improvement in occupancy rates, it could signal a recovery in the retail sector, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued misses on earnings and weak revenue growth could raise concerns about the company's ability to manage its properties effectively in a challenging retail environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Expected to be around $1.09.

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue Growth

Not available this quarter.

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract tenants and maintain occupancy rates, which is vital for a REIT.

Occupancy Rate

Not available this quarter.

A high occupancy rate indicates strong demand for the properties and effective management.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the occupancy rate be this quarter?

The occupancy rate is crucial for understanding the demand for ADC's properties and its revenue potential.

Will ADC provide any guidance on future revenue growth?

Guidance on revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's outlook and ability to navigate the retail landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for ADC to stabilize its occupancy rates, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings despite recent misses.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 3.54% move, but historical averages suggest the stock has moved less than this in previous quarters.

The recent trend of missed earnings could lead to lower expectations, allowing for a surprise upside.

The retail sector is showing signs of recovery, which could positively impact ADC's performance.

Key Risk

If occupancy rates exceed 95%, it could shift the narrative and lead to a positive reassessment of the company's prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ADC can turn around its recent performance and improve its occupancy rates amidst a challenging retail environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.09 or higher, along with a reported occupancy rate above 95%, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 and an occupancy rate below 90% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.54%

Historical Avg

±0.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.54%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±3.5% while ADC has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

14.2%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (3K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADC beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see an average move of +1.8%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

If ADC misses earnings again, history suggests a potential average decline of -0.12%, indicating continued investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on occupancy rates and tenant demand.
2Management's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters.
3Comments on how the company is managing its properties in the current retail environment.
4Insights into any new acquisitions or developments in the pipeline.
5Any commentary on the impact of economic conditions on retail performance.