Equity Profile

ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Consumer StaplesAgricultural Products & Services$38.6B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is a leading player in the agricultural products and services sector, focusing on processing and distributing food and feed ingredients. As a major player in consumer staples, ADM is crucial in the global food supply chain, impacting everything from food prices to agricultural sustainability.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$1.44

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$23.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+42.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ADM reported an EPS of $0.71, exceeding expectations by 8.07%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.83% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about ADM's upcoming earnings, expecting solid performance in both EPS and revenue. The consensus estimates reflect a stable demand for agricultural products.

Bull Case

If ADM can exceed the EPS estimate of $1.44, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its EPS target, it may raise concerns about rising costs or declining demand, which could negatively impact the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.44

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$23.1B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ADM's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.44?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong cost management and operational efficiency, which is critical for investor confidence.

What are the revenue figures relative to the $23.1B consensus?

Revenue performance will provide insights into market demand and the company's ability to navigate pricing pressures in the agricultural sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate ADM's ability to manage costs effectively in a challenging agricultural environment, leading to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Historically, ADM has a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating a strong track record of exceeding expectations.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders anticipate significant news.

Recent trends in agricultural pricing may not be fully reflected in the consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If ADM's revenue comes in significantly above $23.1B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will reflect how well ADM is managing costs and responding to market dynamics.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.20 would raise concerns about profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.87%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.9% while ADM has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.7%

Calls (162K)P/C Ratio: 0.87Puts (85K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADM beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, potentially confirming a strong operational outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An inline result may lead to a muted response, with management commentary driving the stock's direction.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a more significant negative reaction, reflecting investor concerns about future growth.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies in light of rising agricultural prices.
2Insights into demand trends for key products in the agricultural sector.
3Management's outlook on supply chain challenges and their impact on operations.
4Comments on market conditions and pricing strategies for the upcoming quarters.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$1.44

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$23.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+42.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ADM reported an EPS of $0.71, exceeding expectations by 8.07%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.83% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about ADM's upcoming earnings, expecting solid performance in both EPS and revenue. The consensus estimates reflect a stable demand for agricultural products.

Bull Case

If ADM can exceed the EPS estimate of $1.44, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its EPS target, it may raise concerns about rising costs or declining demand, which could negatively impact the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.44

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$23.1B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ADM's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.44?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong cost management and operational efficiency, which is critical for investor confidence.

What are the revenue figures relative to the $23.1B consensus?

Revenue performance will provide insights into market demand and the company's ability to navigate pricing pressures in the agricultural sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate ADM's ability to manage costs effectively in a challenging agricultural environment, leading to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Historically, ADM has a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating a strong track record of exceeding expectations.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders anticipate significant news.

Recent trends in agricultural pricing may not be fully reflected in the consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If ADM's revenue comes in significantly above $23.1B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will reflect how well ADM is managing costs and responding to market dynamics.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.20 would raise concerns about profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.87%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.9% while ADM has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.7%

Calls (162K)P/C Ratio: 0.87Puts (85K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADM beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, potentially confirming a strong operational outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An inline result may lead to a muted response, with management commentary driving the stock's direction.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a more significant negative reaction, reflecting investor concerns about future growth.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies in light of rising agricultural prices.
2Insights into demand trends for key products in the agricultural sector.
3Management's outlook on supply chain challenges and their impact on operations.
4Comments on market conditions and pricing strategies for the upcoming quarters.