Equity Profile

ADPT

ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLO

Health CareLife Sciences Tools & Services$2.7B

May5Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:05 PM EDT

Adaptive Biotechnologies Beats on EPS, Stock Down 4.97%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.13	$-0.16	+16.13%
Revenue	N/A	$61M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Adaptive Biotechnologies Beats on EPS, Stock Down 4.97%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.13	$-0.16	+16.13%
Revenue	N/A	$61M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a smaller-than-expected loss per share, which is a positive surprise for investors. However, the stock fell nearly 5% in reaction, likely due to the lack of revenue information and guidance. Investors may be concerned about the company's future performance without clear direction or updates from management.

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

$-0.16

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

$61M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation is a health care company focused on using its proprietary technology to analyze the immune system. This is important as it plays a role in developing diagnostics and therapeutics for various diseases, including cancer and autoimmune disorders. With a market cap of $2 billion, the company operates in the life sciences tools and services sector, which is increasingly relevant in today's health landscape.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+37.94%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.91%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Adaptive Biotechnologies reported an EPS of $-0.09, which was significantly better than the expected $-0.19. However, revenue details were not disclosed, and the stock fell 4.80% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Adaptive Biotechnologies to report a loss of $0.16 per share on revenues of $61 million. Investors will be closely watching for any surprises in these figures, especially given the company's recent performance.

Bull Case

If the company beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal improving operational efficiency and market demand for its products.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses on both EPS and revenue, it could raise concerns about its financial health and growth prospects, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.16

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

$61M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.16?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's ability to manage costs effectively and could boost investor confidence.

What revenue growth can we expect relative to the consensus of $61 million?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's market position and future prospects, especially in a competitive industry.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the company's ability to leverage its technology for new product offerings, which could drive higher revenue than expected.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting potential for another surprise.

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility that may not align with current consensus views.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $64 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Adaptive Biotechnologies can sustain its previous performance and capitalize on its growth opportunities.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of better than $-0.15 and revenue exceeding $64 million would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.20 and revenue below $55 million would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±35.96%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±22.4% while ADPT has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.6%

30d HV

74.6%

Calls (300)P/C Ratio: 1.67Puts (500)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$10.8M

767,781 sh

4 insiders

Net

$10.8M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 41 open-market trades

President and COORUBINSTEIN JULIE
$8.5M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If the company beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.81% on average, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a drop, with historical patterns indicating a potential decline of around 2.41%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or partnerships that could drive revenue.
2Insights into cost management strategies and how they are impacting EPS.
3Details on customer demand trends and market expansion efforts.
4Management's outlook on future quarters and any guidance provided.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive positioning in the life sciences sector.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

$-0.16

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

$61M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+37.94%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.91%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal improving operational efficiency and market demand for its products.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses on both EPS and revenue, it could raise concerns about its financial health and growth prospects, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.16

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

$61M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.16?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's ability to manage costs effectively and could boost investor confidence.

What revenue growth can we expect relative to the consensus of $61 million?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's market position and future prospects, especially in a competitive industry.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the company's ability to leverage its technology for new product offerings, which could drive higher revenue than expected.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting potential for another surprise.

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility that may not align with current consensus views.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $64 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Adaptive Biotechnologies can sustain its previous performance and capitalize on its growth opportunities.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of better than $-0.15 and revenue exceeding $64 million would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.20 and revenue below $55 million would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±35.96%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±22.4% while ADPT has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.6%

30d HV

74.6%

Calls (300)P/C Ratio: 1.67Puts (500)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$10.8M

767,781 sh

4 insiders

Net

$10.8M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 41 open-market trades

President and COORUBINSTEIN JULIE
$8.5M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If the company beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.81% on average, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a drop, with historical patterns indicating a potential decline of around 2.41%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or partnerships that could drive revenue.
2Insights into cost management strategies and how they are impacting EPS.
3Details on customer demand trends and market expansion efforts.
4Management's outlook on future quarters and any guidance provided.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive positioning in the life sciences sector.