Equity Profile

ADPT

ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLO

Health CareLife Sciences Tools & Services$2.7B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) operates in the health care sector, focusing on life sciences tools and services. The company is known for its innovative approaches to understanding the immune system and developing diagnostic solutions, which are increasingly important in personalized medicine and disease management.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and is crucial for assessing future performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADPT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+37.94%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.91%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Adaptive Biotechnologies reported an EPS of -$0.13, beating estimates by 16.13%. However, the stock declined by nearly 5% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Adaptive Biotechnologies are uncertain as there are no analyst estimates available. The stock's recent performance suggests investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report.

Bull Case

If the company continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and potentially lead to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to provide clear guidance or shows signs of declining revenue, it could lead to further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be critical in shaping investor sentiment and expectations.

What guidance will management provide for revenue growth moving forward?

Clear guidance on revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Adaptive Biotechnologies to continue its trend of positive EPS surprises, given its recent history of beating estimates.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently surprised on EPS, with a 100% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options are pricing a significant move of 37.62%, indicating that the market expects volatility, which could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in significantly better than expected, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Adaptive Biotechnologies can maintain its trend of beating EPS estimates while providing solid revenue guidance.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS surprise of greater than $0.00 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of less than -$0.20 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±37.62%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±37.6% while ADPT has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

53.6%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.31Puts (400)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$10.8M

767,781 sh

4 insiders

Net

$10.8M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 41 open-market trades

President and COORUBINSTEIN JULIE
$8.5M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADPT beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +3.96%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but lack clear guidance, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting investor caution.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day decline of around -4.97%, indicating significant downside risk.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or advancements in diagnostic technologies.
2Management's commentary on market demand for their services and products.
3Insights into partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth prospects.
4Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
5Any changes in competitive landscape or regulatory challenges.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and is crucial for assessing future performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADPT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+37.94%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.91%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and potentially lead to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to provide clear guidance or shows signs of declining revenue, it could lead to further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be critical in shaping investor sentiment and expectations.

What guidance will management provide for revenue growth moving forward?

Clear guidance on revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Adaptive Biotechnologies to continue its trend of positive EPS surprises, given its recent history of beating estimates.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently surprised on EPS, with a 100% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options are pricing a significant move of 37.62%, indicating that the market expects volatility, which could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in significantly better than expected, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Adaptive Biotechnologies can maintain its trend of beating EPS estimates while providing solid revenue guidance.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS surprise of greater than $0.00 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of less than -$0.20 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±37.62%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±37.6% while ADPT has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

53.6%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.31Puts (400)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$10.8M

767,781 sh

4 insiders

Net

$10.8M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 41 open-market trades

President and COORUBINSTEIN JULIE
$8.5M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADPT beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +3.96%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but lack clear guidance, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting investor caution.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day decline of around -4.97%, indicating significant downside risk.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or advancements in diagnostic technologies.
2Management's commentary on market demand for their services and products.
3Insights into partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth prospects.
4Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
5Any changes in competitive landscape or regulatory challenges.