Equity Profile

AFRM

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsTransaction & Payment Processing Services$21.3B

Aug27Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that provides point-of-sale financing and buy now, pay later solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely watch.

$0.30

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and sustain operations.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AFRM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that provides point-of-sale financing and buy now, pay later solutions. Operating in the financial sector, it plays a significant role in consumer spending by enabling customers to make purchases and pay over time, which has become increasingly popular in today's retail landscape.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+90.51%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.01%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Affirm reported an EPS of $0.30, significantly beating estimates by 79.64%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding partnerships with retailers.
Enhance customer experience through technology improvements.
Maintain strong growth in user adoption.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are anticipating strong earnings, especially given Affirm's recent history of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of revenue guidance raises questions about the sustainability of this growth.

Bull Case

If Affirm continues to show strong EPS growth and expands its customer base, it could solidify its position as a leader in the buy now, pay later market, driving stock prices higher.

Bear Case

Concerns about rising interest rates and consumer spending could impact Affirm's growth, leading to potential disappointments in revenue and overall performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.30

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely watch.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and sustain operations.

Customer Growth

N/A

The number of customers using Affirm's services can indicate market acceptance and future revenue potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q4-2026?

Given the company's strong history of EPS surprises, this figure will be critical in assessing ongoing profitability and market confidence.

How many new customers were added this quarter?

Customer growth is essential for future revenue potential, and any slowdown could raise concerns about market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on consumer spending, which could affect Affirm's growth more than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 29.33% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Affirm's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance, but revenue growth remains uncertain.

Insider selling could signal a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects.

Key Risk

If customer growth falls below expectations, it could lead to a reassessment of the company's future revenue potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Affirm can maintain its growth trajectory amid changing economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.35 or higher would confirm strong profitability and growth potential.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.25 would signal potential issues with profitability and growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±29.33%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±29.3% while AFRM has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

53.2%

Calls (1.2M)P/C Ratio: 0.43Puts (857K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$110,000.00

2,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$110,000.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Affirm beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2.71%, confirming strong market demand and operational success.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A disappointing EPS could lead to a drop of around 7.77%, reflecting investor concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on partnerships with major retailers.
2Details on customer acquisition strategies and growth metrics.
3Insights into how rising interest rates are affecting consumer behavior.
4Management's outlook on revenue growth for the next quarter.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the buy now, pay later space.

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Company Snapshot

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that provides point-of-sale financing and buy now, pay later solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely watch.

$0.30

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and sustain operations.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AFRM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+90.51%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.01%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Affirm reported an EPS of $0.30, significantly beating estimates by 79.64%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding partnerships with retailers.
Enhance customer experience through technology improvements.
Maintain strong growth in user adoption.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Affirm continues to show strong EPS growth and expands its customer base, it could solidify its position as a leader in the buy now, pay later market, driving stock prices higher.

Bear Case

Concerns about rising interest rates and consumer spending could impact Affirm's growth, leading to potential disappointments in revenue and overall performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.30

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely watch.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and sustain operations.

Customer Growth

N/A

The number of customers using Affirm's services can indicate market acceptance and future revenue potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q4-2026?

Given the company's strong history of EPS surprises, this figure will be critical in assessing ongoing profitability and market confidence.

How many new customers were added this quarter?

Customer growth is essential for future revenue potential, and any slowdown could raise concerns about market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on consumer spending, which could affect Affirm's growth more than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 29.33% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Affirm's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance, but revenue growth remains uncertain.

Insider selling could signal a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects.

Key Risk

If customer growth falls below expectations, it could lead to a reassessment of the company's future revenue potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Affirm can maintain its growth trajectory amid changing economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.35 or higher would confirm strong profitability and growth potential.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.25 would signal potential issues with profitability and growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±29.33%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±29.3% while AFRM has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

53.2%

Calls (1.2M)P/C Ratio: 0.43Puts (857K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$110,000.00

2,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$110,000.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Affirm beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2.71%, confirming strong market demand and operational success.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A disappointing EPS could lead to a drop of around 7.77%, reflecting investor concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on partnerships with major retailers.
2Details on customer acquisition strategies and growth metrics.
3Insights into how rising interest rates are affecting consumer behavior.
4Management's outlook on revenue growth for the next quarter.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the buy now, pay later space.