Equity Profile

AGO

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

FinancialsProperty & Casualty Insurance$3.7B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) operates in the financial sector, specifically in property and casualty insurance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to expand its business and attract new clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AGO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) operates in the financial sector, specifically in property and casualty insurance. The company provides credit protection and financial guarantees, which are essential for investors and municipalities looking to secure their financial obligations. With a market cap of $4 billion, AGO plays a significant role in the insurance landscape, particularly as economic conditions fluctuate.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+26.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.18%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Assured Guaranty reported an EPS of $2.50, significantly beating estimates by 66.67%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.51% the following day, reflecting investor confidence in the company's performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for AGO are mixed, with investors keenly watching for any signs of sustained profitability and growth. The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, which could lead to positive market reactions.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on continued strong EPS growth and effective management of claims, potentially leading to higher stock prices. If the company can maintain its recent performance, it may attract more investors.

Bear Case

The pessimistic view suggests that any signs of declining revenue or increased claims could lead to a negative reaction in the stock price. Investors may be wary of potential economic downturns affecting the insurance sector.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a strong performance could boost investor confidence and stock price.

How has the claims ratio changed compared to previous quarters?

Changes in the claims ratio can indicate the company's risk exposure and management effectiveness, impacting future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate AGO's ability to manage claims effectively, leading to better-than-expected profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

AGO has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

Recent trends in the insurance sector show improved risk management practices that could benefit AGO.

Key Risk

If the claims ratio remains stable or improves, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as investors weigh the company's ability to sustain profitability amid potential economic challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

EPS growth of 20% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An increase in the claims ratio above 70% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.73%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.7% while AGO has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

37.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.24Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AGO beats expectations, history suggests a stock increase of around 0.75%, confirming the company's strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with history suggesting an average drop of around 0.78%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the claims ratio and how it compares to historical averages.
2Management's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters.
3Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could drive future revenue.
4Insights into the company's risk management strategies and how they are adapting to market conditions.

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Company Snapshot

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) operates in the financial sector, specifically in property and casualty insurance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to expand its business and attract new clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AGO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+26.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.18%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

Bear Case

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a strong performance could boost investor confidence and stock price.

How has the claims ratio changed compared to previous quarters?

Changes in the claims ratio can indicate the company's risk exposure and management effectiveness, impacting future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate AGO's ability to manage claims effectively, leading to better-than-expected profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

AGO has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

Recent trends in the insurance sector show improved risk management practices that could benefit AGO.

Key Risk

If the claims ratio remains stable or improves, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as investors weigh the company's ability to sustain profitability amid potential economic challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

EPS growth of 20% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An increase in the claims ratio above 70% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.73%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.7% while AGO has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

37.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.24Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AGO beats expectations, history suggests a stock increase of around 0.75%, confirming the company's strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with history suggesting an average drop of around 0.78%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the claims ratio and how it compares to historical averages.
2Management's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters.
3Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could drive future revenue.
4Insights into the company's risk management strategies and how they are adapting to market conditions.