Equity Profile

ALRM

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Information TechnologyApplication Software$2.2B

May7Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:05 PM EDT

Alarm.com Beats on EPS, Stock Up 3.43%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.65	$0.60	+39.19%
Revenue	N/A	$251M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Alarm.com Beats on EPS, Stock Up 3.43%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.65	$0.60	+39.19%
Revenue	N/A	$251M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Alarm.com reported a strong earnings per share that exceeded expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction of 3.43%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may view the EPS beat as a sign of operational strength, but the lack of revenue data could raise questions about future growth.

Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is a technology company that provides cloud-based services for security and automation systems....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

$0.60

Revenue

Revenue growth is essential for understanding the company's market demand and overall business health.

$251M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is a technology company that provides cloud-based services for security and automation systems. As a key player in the information technology sector, it focuses on smart home and business solutions, which are increasingly relevant as consumer interest in home security and automation grows.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+56.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Alarm.com reported an EPS of $0.72, significantly exceeding expectations. However, the stock reacted slightly negatively, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued investment in product development to enhance service offerings.
Focus on expanding customer base and market penetration.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Alarm.com to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.60 and revenue of $251 million. The company has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, which may lead to positive sentiment.

Bull Case

If Alarm.com continues its trend of exceeding earnings expectations, it could see a significant stock price increase, driven by investor confidence in its growth strategy.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet even the lowered expectations, it could face a sharp decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.60

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

Revenue

$251M

Revenue growth is essential for understanding the company's market demand and overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.60?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance history and could boost investor confidence.

What are the management's comments on revenue growth and market expansion?

Insights into revenue growth and market strategy will be crucial for understanding future performance and investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Alarm.com's ability to capitalize on the growing demand for smart home solutions, which could lead to stronger revenue growth than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS surprises indicate a consistent ability to outperform expectations.

Options pricing suggests a higher volatility than what has been realized in past quarters, indicating potential for significant movement.

Recent trends in consumer spending on home automation could drive unexpected revenue growth.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds the expected $251 million, it could challenge the current consensus outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory against potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.65 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.56 would support the bear case, suggesting potential issues in revenue generation.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.39%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.39%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±3.4% while ALRM has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

36.2%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 0.16Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alarm.com beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.03%, confirming strong operational momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors await further guidance, reflecting cautious sentiment.

Miss

If the company misses earnings expectations, the stock could drop, potentially reflecting a decline of around 1.41% based on historical patterns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on customer acquisition strategies and their effectiveness.
2Insights into product development timelines and new features.
3Management's outlook on market trends in home automation.
4Details on operational efficiencies and cost management efforts.
5Comments on competitive pressures and how the company plans to address them.

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Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is a technology company that provides cloud-based services for security and automation systems....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

$0.60

Revenue

Revenue growth is essential for understanding the company's market demand and overall business health.

$251M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+56.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued investment in product development to enhance service offerings.
Focus on expanding customer base and market penetration.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Alarm.com continues its trend of exceeding earnings expectations, it could see a significant stock price increase, driven by investor confidence in its growth strategy.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet even the lowered expectations, it could face a sharp decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.60

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

Revenue

$251M

Revenue growth is essential for understanding the company's market demand and overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.60?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance history and could boost investor confidence.

What are the management's comments on revenue growth and market expansion?

Insights into revenue growth and market strategy will be crucial for understanding future performance and investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Alarm.com's ability to capitalize on the growing demand for smart home solutions, which could lead to stronger revenue growth than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS surprises indicate a consistent ability to outperform expectations.

Options pricing suggests a higher volatility than what has been realized in past quarters, indicating potential for significant movement.

Recent trends in consumer spending on home automation could drive unexpected revenue growth.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds the expected $251 million, it could challenge the current consensus outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory against potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.65 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.56 would support the bear case, suggesting potential issues in revenue generation.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.39%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.39%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±3.4% while ALRM has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

36.2%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 0.16Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alarm.com beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.03%, confirming strong operational momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors await further guidance, reflecting cautious sentiment.

Miss

If the company misses earnings expectations, the stock could drop, potentially reflecting a decline of around 1.41% based on historical patterns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on customer acquisition strategies and their effectiveness.
2Insights into product development timelines and new features.
3Management's outlook on market trends in home automation.
4Details on operational efficiencies and cost management efforts.
5Comments on competitive pressures and how the company plans to address them.