Equity Profile

ALRM

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Information TechnologyApplication Software$2.7B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is a technology company that provides cloud-based services for security systems and smart home solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales, which is crucial for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALRM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is a technology company that provides cloud-based services for security systems and smart home solutions. As a player in the information technology sector, it is positioned to benefit from trends in home automation and security, which are increasingly important to consumers.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+56.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Alarm.com reported an EPS of $0.65, significantly beating expectations by 39%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.43% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing product features and customer service.
Commitment to expanding market reach and customer acquisition.
Plans to invest in technology to improve security solutions.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, but revenue details remain unclear. Investors are keen to see if this trend continues.

Bull Case

If Alarm.com maintains its strong EPS performance and shows robust revenue growth, it could signal a strong competitive position in the market, attracting more investors.

Bear Case

Concerns about customer retention and market saturation could dampen enthusiasm, especially if revenue growth does not meet expectations.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a strong performance could reinforce investor confidence.

How is customer retention trending?

Customer retention is vital for sustained revenue growth, and any decline could raise red flags for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Alarm.com's ability to innovate and retain customers, potentially leading to stronger-than-expected performance.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting strong operational performance.

Recent trends in home automation indicate a growing market that Alarm.com is well-positioned to capture.

Options pricing suggests significant movement, indicating that traders may expect a surprise.

Key Risk

If customer retention rates improve significantly, it could lead to higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the company's ability to maintain profitability while growing its customer base.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would support the bear case, suggesting potential issues with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.23%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.2% while ALRM has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

43.2%

Calls (100)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (0)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alarm.com beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.43%, confirming its strong market position.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of 1.81% in such scenarios.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new product features and their impact on customer acquisition.
2Insights into customer retention strategies and their effectiveness.
3Any commentary on market competition and how Alarm.com plans to differentiate itself.
4Details on revenue growth and projections for the upcoming quarters.
5Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting consumer spending.

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Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is a technology company that provides cloud-based services for security systems and smart home solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales, which is crucial for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALRM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+56.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Alarm.com reported an EPS of $0.65, significantly beating expectations by 39%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.43% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing product features and customer service.
Commitment to expanding market reach and customer acquisition.
Plans to invest in technology to improve security solutions.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, but revenue details remain unclear. Investors are keen to see if this trend continues.

Bull Case

If Alarm.com maintains its strong EPS performance and shows robust revenue growth, it could signal a strong competitive position in the market, attracting more investors.

Bear Case

Concerns about customer retention and market saturation could dampen enthusiasm, especially if revenue growth does not meet expectations.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a strong performance could reinforce investor confidence.

How is customer retention trending?

Customer retention is vital for sustained revenue growth, and any decline could raise red flags for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Alarm.com's ability to innovate and retain customers, potentially leading to stronger-than-expected performance.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting strong operational performance.

Recent trends in home automation indicate a growing market that Alarm.com is well-positioned to capture.

Options pricing suggests significant movement, indicating that traders may expect a surprise.

Key Risk

If customer retention rates improve significantly, it could lead to higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the company's ability to maintain profitability while growing its customer base.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would support the bear case, suggesting potential issues with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.23%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.2% while ALRM has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

43.2%

Calls (100)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (0)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alarm.com beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.43%, confirming its strong market position.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of 1.81% in such scenarios.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new product features and their impact on customer acquisition.
2Insights into customer retention strategies and their effectiveness.
3Any commentary on market competition and how Alarm.com plans to differentiate itself.
4Details on revenue growth and projections for the upcoming quarters.
5Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting consumer spending.