Equity Profile

ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.

IndustrialsConstruction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment$10.2B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of automatic transmissions for commercial vehicles, particularly in the construction and heavy transportation sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

$2.59

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

$1.5B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALSN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of automatic transmissions for commercial vehicles, particularly in the construction and heavy transportation sectors. With a market cap of $10 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the industrial sector, benefiting from trends in infrastructure spending and the growing demand for efficient transportation solutions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-0.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.01%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Allison reported an EPS of $2.57, slightly beating estimates by 1.38%. However, the stock reacted negatively the following day, dropping 1.67%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Allison to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $2.59. The company has a history of beating earnings estimates, which could lead to positive market reactions.

Bull Case

If Allison can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal robust demand in the construction and transportation sectors, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about slowing demand and impact the stock negatively.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.59

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$1.5B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Allison's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.59?

A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

What insights can management provide on revenue growth and demand trends?

Understanding revenue drivers is crucial for assessing the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for Allison to outperform due to strong demand in the construction sector, which could lead to higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Allison has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate in the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $1.5 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is focused on whether Allison can maintain its earnings momentum amid fluctuating demand in the industrial sector.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.43 would indicate potential challenges in meeting market expectations.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.74%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.7% while ALSN has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

35.9%

Calls (300)P/C Ratio: 0.40Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Allison beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.4%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.16%, raising concerns about demand and profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on demand trends in the construction and transportation sectors.
2Insights into cost management and supply chain stability.
3Updates on new product launches or technological advancements.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue guidance.

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Company Snapshot

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of automatic transmissions for commercial vehicles, particularly in the construction and heavy transportation sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

$2.59

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

$1.5B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALSN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-0.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.01%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Allison reported an EPS of $2.57, slightly beating estimates by 1.38%. However, the stock reacted negatively the following day, dropping 1.67%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Allison to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $2.59. The company has a history of beating earnings estimates, which could lead to positive market reactions.

Bull Case

If Allison can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal robust demand in the construction and transportation sectors, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about slowing demand and impact the stock negatively.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.59

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$1.5B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Allison's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.59?

A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

What insights can management provide on revenue growth and demand trends?

Understanding revenue drivers is crucial for assessing the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for Allison to outperform due to strong demand in the construction sector, which could lead to higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Allison has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate in the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $1.5 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is focused on whether Allison can maintain its earnings momentum amid fluctuating demand in the industrial sector.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.43 would indicate potential challenges in meeting market expectations.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.74%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.7% while ALSN has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

35.9%

Calls (300)P/C Ratio: 0.40Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Allison beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.4%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.16%, raising concerns about demand and profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on demand trends in the construction and transportation sectors.
2Insights into cost management and supply chain stability.
3Updates on new product launches or technological advancements.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue guidance.