Equity Profile

APO

Apollo Global Management, Inc.

FinancialsDiversified Financial Services$68.5B

Aug13Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close1:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) is a leading global alternative investment manager specializing in private equity, credit, and real estate....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Apollo is managing its investments and expenses.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the scale of Apollo's operations and its ability to generate fees, which is vital for revenue growth.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

APO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) is a leading global alternative investment manager specializing in private equity, credit, and real estate. With a market cap of $69 billion, the company plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in diversified financial services, which is essential for investors seeking exposure to alternative assets.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.37%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Apollo reported an EPS of $1.94, exceeding expectations by 5.04%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 0.59% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed ahead of the earnings report, with a focus on how Apollo's investments are performing amid market fluctuations.

Bull Case

If Apollo continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational management and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports disappointing investment performance, it could lead to a significant sell-off, especially given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and a strong performance could boost investor confidence.

How much has AUM changed compared to last quarter?

Changes in AUM can directly impact revenue and reflect investor sentiment towards Apollo's management.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Apollo's ability to leverage its investment strategies effectively, leading to better-than-expected performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Apollo has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting potential for a larger reaction.

Recent market conditions have favored alternative investments, which could benefit Apollo's portfolio.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the outlook for revenue and profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will set the tone for investor sentiment and expectations for the rest of the year.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.85 would raise concerns about profitability and management effectiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.7%

Historical Avg

±3.5%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move of 2.7%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility but not a dramatic shift in stock price.

Options are pricing ±2.7% while APO has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

30.8%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 1.03Puts (93K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Apollo beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +1.48%, confirming strong operational management.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day drop of -7.45%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the performance of specific investment segments, particularly private equity and credit.
2Insights into changes in AUM and what factors are driving those changes.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and how they plan to navigate potential challenges.
4Details on any new investment strategies or funds being launched.
5Comments on investor sentiment and demand for alternative investments.

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Company Snapshot

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) is a leading global alternative investment manager specializing in private equity, credit, and real estate....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Apollo is managing its investments and expenses.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the scale of Apollo's operations and its ability to generate fees, which is vital for revenue growth.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

APO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.37%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Apollo reported an EPS of $1.94, exceeding expectations by 5.04%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 0.59% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed ahead of the earnings report, with a focus on how Apollo's investments are performing amid market fluctuations.

Bull Case

If Apollo continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational management and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports disappointing investment performance, it could lead to a significant sell-off, especially given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and a strong performance could boost investor confidence.

How much has AUM changed compared to last quarter?

Changes in AUM can directly impact revenue and reflect investor sentiment towards Apollo's management.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Apollo's ability to leverage its investment strategies effectively, leading to better-than-expected performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Apollo has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting potential for a larger reaction.

Recent market conditions have favored alternative investments, which could benefit Apollo's portfolio.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the outlook for revenue and profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will set the tone for investor sentiment and expectations for the rest of the year.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.85 would raise concerns about profitability and management effectiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.7%

Historical Avg

±3.5%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move of 2.7%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility but not a dramatic shift in stock price.

Options are pricing ±2.7% while APO has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

30.8%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 1.03Puts (93K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Apollo beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +1.48%, confirming strong operational management.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day drop of -7.45%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the performance of specific investment segments, particularly private equity and credit.
2Insights into changes in AUM and what factors are driving those changes.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and how they plan to navigate potential challenges.
4Details on any new investment strategies or funds being launched.
5Comments on investor sentiment and demand for alternative investments.