Equity Profile

ARES

Ares Management Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$28.3B

May1Fri

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:00 AM EDT

Ares Management Corporation Misses on EPS, Stock Up 1.36%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.46	$1.33	-65.20%
Revenue	N/A	$1.1B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Ares Management Corporation Misses on EPS, Stock Up 1.36%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.46	$1.33	-65.20%
Revenue	N/A	$1.1B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on the numerical results.

What It Means

Ares Management Corporation reported a significant miss on EPS, which is a concern for investors. Despite this, the stock saw a modest increase of 1.36% in reaction to the earnings report. The stock's rise may reflect investor optimism or a broader market trend, as the company did not provide additional context or guidance.

Company Snapshot

Ares Management Corporation is a leading global alternative investment manager specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $25 billion, Ares plays a significant role in the financial sector, focusing on private equity, credit, and real estate investments, which are crucial for capital flow in various markets.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ares is managing its investments.

$1.33

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall financial health and growth potential.

$1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Ares reported an EPS of $0.08, significantly missing expectations of $1.71, which led to an 11.19% drop in stock price the following day. This disappointing performance raised concerns about the company's ability to generate consistent earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic for Q1 2026, with expectations set for an EPS of $1.33 and stable revenue. However, the recent earnings miss has left some investors wary about the company's ability to meet these targets.

Bull Case

If Ares can exceed the EPS estimate, it may signal a turnaround in performance, boosting investor confidence and potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Ares fails to meet expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its investment strategy and management effectiveness, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.33

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ares is managing its investments.

Revenue

$1.1B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall financial health and growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ares achieve an EPS of at least $1.33?

This number is critical as it reflects the company's ability to recover from previous earnings misses and meet investor expectations.

What factors contributed to the significant EPS miss last quarter?

Understanding the reasons behind the last quarter's performance will help investors gauge the company's future prospects and management's effectiveness.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in Ares' earnings, as the company has historically shown resilience after earnings misses.

Supporting Evidence

Despite the recent miss, Ares has a track record of bouncing back, with 25% of past quarters exceeding EPS estimates.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors are anticipating a significant reaction.

The recent insider buying activity may signal confidence in the company's recovery prospects.

Key Risk

If Ares can provide clarity on the factors behind the last quarter's miss, it could shift investor sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it follows a significant earnings miss, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.33 or better would confirm a positive turnaround in Ares' earnings performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.19 would reinforce concerns about the company's operational challenges and investment strategies.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.32%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.3% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.1%

30d HV

42.1%

Calls (308K)P/C Ratio: 0.54Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 10 of 28 (36%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 18 of 28 (64%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.6%, with a raw directional average of -0.7% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares beats expectations, history suggests a potential average stock move of +3.46%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results come in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -3.91% based on historical patterns, further eroding investor confidence.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-ARJohn BoozmanSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on strategic initiatives that could drive revenue growth.
2Details on the company's investment performance in key sectors like private equity and real estate.
3Management's commentary on market conditions and how they are adapting their strategies.
4Insights into the company's risk management practices in the current economic environment.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ares is managing its investments.

$1.33

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall financial health and growth potential.

$1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ares can exceed the EPS estimate, it may signal a turnaround in performance, boosting investor confidence and potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Ares fails to meet expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its investment strategy and management effectiveness, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.33

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ares is managing its investments.

Revenue

$1.1B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall financial health and growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ares achieve an EPS of at least $1.33?

This number is critical as it reflects the company's ability to recover from previous earnings misses and meet investor expectations.

What factors contributed to the significant EPS miss last quarter?

Understanding the reasons behind the last quarter's performance will help investors gauge the company's future prospects and management's effectiveness.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in Ares' earnings, as the company has historically shown resilience after earnings misses.

Supporting Evidence

Despite the recent miss, Ares has a track record of bouncing back, with 25% of past quarters exceeding EPS estimates.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors are anticipating a significant reaction.

The recent insider buying activity may signal confidence in the company's recovery prospects.

Key Risk

If Ares can provide clarity on the factors behind the last quarter's miss, it could shift investor sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it follows a significant earnings miss, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.33 or better would confirm a positive turnaround in Ares' earnings performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.19 would reinforce concerns about the company's operational challenges and investment strategies.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.32%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.3% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.1%

30d HV

42.1%

Calls (308K)P/C Ratio: 0.54Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 10 of 28 (36%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares beats expectations, history suggests a potential average stock move of +3.46%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results come in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -3.91% based on historical patterns, further eroding investor confidence.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-ARJohn BoozmanSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on strategic initiatives that could drive revenue growth.
2Details on the company's investment performance in key sectors like private equity and real estate.
3Management's commentary on market conditions and how they are adapting their strategies.
4Insights into the company's risk management practices in the current economic environment.