Equity Profile

ARLP

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.

EnergyCoal & Consumable Fuels$3.2B

Jul27Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) is a leading coal producer in the United States, primarily focused on the extraction and sale of coal for electricity generation and industrial use....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding the company's market position and demand for its coal products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARLP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) is a leading coal producer in the United States, primarily focused on the extraction and sale of coal for electricity generation and industrial use. As a player in the energy sector, ARLP's performance is influenced by trends in energy demand, regulatory changes, and the shift towards renewable energy sources.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-24.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ARLP reported an EPS of $0.07, which was significantly below the expected $0.27, resulting in a 74% negative surprise. Following the announcement, the stock saw a modest increase of 2.21% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about ARLP's upcoming earnings report, especially after a disappointing Q1. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If ARLP can demonstrate improved cost management and higher coal demand, it could lead to a significant rebound in EPS and revenue, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to show growth in production or sales, it may face further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss in the previous quarter, the market will closely scrutinize EPS to assess the company's recovery and management effectiveness.

How has coal production volume changed compared to last quarter?

Changes in production volume will indicate the company's ability to meet market demand and could influence future revenue projections.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in coal demand, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 13.6% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

ARLP's recent production adjustments may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates, suggesting potential upside.

Key Risk

If coal demand shows unexpected strength, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ARLP can turn around its recent performance and meet or exceed expectations after a series of misses.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's operational efficiency.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.6%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.6% while ARLP has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

25.3%

Calls (135K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (34K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 17 of 29 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARLP beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.89%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.27%, reinforcing concerns about the company's ability to recover.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCVirginia FoxxRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal production volume and how it compares to previous quarters.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into market demand for coal and any shifts in customer contracts.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and production targets.
5Responses to questions regarding regulatory impacts on coal production.

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More Earnings This Week

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Company Snapshot

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) is a leading coal producer in the United States, primarily focused on the extraction and sale of coal for electricity generation and industrial use....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding the company's market position and demand for its coal products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARLP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-24.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about ARLP's upcoming earnings report, especially after a disappointing Q1. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If ARLP can demonstrate improved cost management and higher coal demand, it could lead to a significant rebound in EPS and revenue, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to show growth in production or sales, it may face further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss in the previous quarter, the market will closely scrutinize EPS to assess the company's recovery and management effectiveness.

How has coal production volume changed compared to last quarter?

Changes in production volume will indicate the company's ability to meet market demand and could influence future revenue projections.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in coal demand, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 13.6% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

ARLP's recent production adjustments may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates, suggesting potential upside.

Key Risk

If coal demand shows unexpected strength, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ARLP can turn around its recent performance and meet or exceed expectations after a series of misses.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's operational efficiency.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.6%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.6% while ARLP has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

25.3%

Calls (135K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (34K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARLP beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.89%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.27%, reinforcing concerns about the company's ability to recover.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCVirginia FoxxRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal production volume and how it compares to previous quarters.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into market demand for coal and any shifts in customer contracts.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and production targets.
5Responses to questions regarding regulatory impacts on coal production.