Equity Profile

ARLP

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.

EnergyCoal & Consumable Fuels$3.2B

Jul27Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on coal and consumable fuels....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall sales performance and market demand for coal.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARLP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on coal and consumable fuels. As a significant player in the coal industry, its performance is closely tied to energy demand and regulatory changes affecting fossil fuels.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-24.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ARLP reported an EPS of $0.07, significantly missing estimates of $0.27, which led to a stock increase of 2.21% the following day. The company has struggled with earnings surprises, showing a mixed performance in recent quarters.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of ARLP's earnings report, particularly given the company's recent struggles with earnings misses. The market is watching for any signs of improvement in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

If ARLP can beat earnings expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand for coal, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, another earnings miss or weak revenue could further undermine confidence in the company's ability to navigate a challenging market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ARLP's EPS exceed the previous quarter's $0.07?

A significant improvement in EPS could indicate a turnaround in profitability and investor sentiment.

What is the outlook for coal demand and pricing in the upcoming quarters?

Understanding management's perspective on market conditions will be crucial for assessing future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be overly pessimistic about ARLP's recovery potential, given the recent volatility in coal prices and demand dynamics.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 13.58% move, indicating expectations for significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company has previously shown resilience after earnings misses, suggesting potential for a rebound.

Recent coal price trends may indicate a stabilization that could benefit ARLP.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.20, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether ARLP can recover from recent earnings misses and capitalize on any potential uptick in coal demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or higher would confirm a positive outlook for ARLP.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 would indicate continued struggles and could lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.58%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.6% while ARLP has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

25.3%

Calls (135K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (34K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 17 of 29 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARLP beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.89%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.27%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal pricing trends and demand forecasts.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into any new contracts or partnerships that could drive revenue.
4Discussion around regulatory impacts on coal production and sales.
5Future guidance on expected EPS and revenue growth.

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More Earnings This Week

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Company Snapshot

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on coal and consumable fuels....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall sales performance and market demand for coal.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARLP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-24.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ARLP can beat earnings expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand for coal, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, another earnings miss or weak revenue could further undermine confidence in the company's ability to navigate a challenging market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ARLP's EPS exceed the previous quarter's $0.07?

A significant improvement in EPS could indicate a turnaround in profitability and investor sentiment.

What is the outlook for coal demand and pricing in the upcoming quarters?

Understanding management's perspective on market conditions will be crucial for assessing future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be overly pessimistic about ARLP's recovery potential, given the recent volatility in coal prices and demand dynamics.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 13.58% move, indicating expectations for significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company has previously shown resilience after earnings misses, suggesting potential for a rebound.

Recent coal price trends may indicate a stabilization that could benefit ARLP.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.20, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether ARLP can recover from recent earnings misses and capitalize on any potential uptick in coal demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or higher would confirm a positive outlook for ARLP.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 would indicate continued struggles and could lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.58%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.6% while ARLP has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

25.3%

Calls (135K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (34K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARLP beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.89%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.27%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal pricing trends and demand forecasts.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into any new contracts or partnerships that could drive revenue.
4Discussion around regulatory impacts on coal production and sales.
5Future guidance on expected EPS and revenue growth.