Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) is a leading producer and marketer of coal in the United States, primarily serving the energy sector....
EPS (Earnings Per Share)
EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue
Revenue figures will provide insights into the company's sales performance and market demand for coal.
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EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
25%
Avg EPS Surprise
-24.32%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.02%
In Q1 2026, ARLP reported an EPS of $0.07, significantly missing expectations of $0.27. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.21% the following day despite the disappointing earnings.
Management Promises & Guidance
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of ARLP's Q2 2026 earnings, especially after a significant earnings miss last quarter. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and production.
Bull Case
If ARLP can show a rebound in EPS and production volume, it could signal a strong recovery in demand for coal, boosting investor confidence.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or weak production numbers, it could raise concerns about its competitiveness and long-term viability in a transitioning energy market.
EPS (Earnings Per Share)
N/AEPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue
N/ARevenue figures will provide insights into the company's sales performance and market demand for coal.
Production Volume
N/AUnderstanding production levels helps gauge operational efficiency and market supply dynamics.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What is the expected EPS for Q2 2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Given the significant miss last quarter, the market will be closely watching for any signs of recovery in earnings.
Q2
What are the production volume expectations for the upcoming quarter?
Production levels will indicate the company's ability to meet market demand and could impact future revenue.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be overly pessimistic about ARLP's recovery potential, underestimating the resilience of coal demand in certain regions.
Supporting Evidence
The options market is pricing in a 15.15% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.
ARLP's recent stock performance suggests that investors are still willing to support the stock despite recent earnings misses.
Key Risk
If production volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly shift market sentiment in favor of ARLP.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating ARLP's ability to recover from recent earnings misses and maintain competitive production levels.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.05 would reinforce concerns about ongoing operational challenges.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±15.15%
Historical Avg
±2.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±15.2% while ARLP has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
26.9%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy
n=30Fade rate: 18 of 29 (62%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 18 of 29 (62%) reversed within 5 days — this setup typically fades. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If ARLP beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.89%, confirming a positive turnaround.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -1.27%, raising concerns about the company's future performance.
Preparation
House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
3 buys·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Feb 13, 2026 · disclosed Mar 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Nov 17, 2025 · disclosed Dec 1, 2025
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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SLB N.V.
Traded Nov 14, 2025 · disclosed Dec 1, 2025
$1,001.00–$15,000.00