Equity Profile

ARQT

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$3.4B

May6Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:00 PM EDT

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Misses on EPS, Stock Up 3.20%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.09	$-0.06	-429.41%
Revenue	—	$104M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Misses on EPS, Stock Up 3.20%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.09	$-0.06	-429.41%
Revenue	—	$104M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Arcutis Biotherapeutics reported a larger-than-expected loss per share, missing consensus estimates. Despite this, the stock rose by 3.20%, indicating that investors may have reacted positively to other aspects of the report or broader market conditions. However, the lack of revenue figures and management commentary leaves uncertainty about the company's performance and future direction.

Company Snapshot

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative treatments for skin diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$-0.06

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$104M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative treatments for skin diseases. Operating in the health care sector, its work is significant as it addresses unmet medical needs in dermatology, which can impact millions of patients.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+19.67%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Arcutis reported an EPS of $0.13, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.11% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to focus on innovative dermatological treatments.
Maintain strong sales growth in existing product lines.
Expand research and development efforts for new therapies.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a loss of $0.06 per share on revenues of $104 million for Q1 2026. Given the company's recent performance, there is cautious optimism about meeting these targets.

Bull Case

If Arcutis can exceed revenue expectations and show a path to profitability, it could lead to a significant stock price increase, especially given its recent earnings surprises.

Bear Case

If the company fails to meet revenue expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, particularly given the high implied volatility.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.06

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$104M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Arcutis achieve revenue of at least $104 million this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this revenue target is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and validating the company's growth strategy.

What is the outlook for profitability in the coming quarters?

Investors will closely watch for any guidance on profitability, as it will impact future stock performance and investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Arcutis' ability to leverage recent product launches, leading to stronger-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance.

Recent insider buying suggests confidence in the company's future prospects.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, reflecting uncertainty that could swing in favor of positive results.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $106 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will either reinforce the bullish sentiment from recent earnings surprises or highlight ongoing challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving revenue of $106 million or more would confirm strong demand for Arcutis' products.

Bear Confirmed If

Falling short of $103 million in revenue would raise concerns about the company's growth trajectory.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±22.84%

Historical Avg

±5.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating uncertainty about the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±22.8% while ARQT has averaged ±5.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.6%

30d HV

50.3%

Calls (5K)P/C Ratio: 0.04Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.3%, with a raw directional average of +2.1% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Arcutis beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.58%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line result may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await further commentary on future growth prospects.

Miss

A miss could result in a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop in stock price, particularly if revenue falls below expectations.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their market reception.
2Guidance on future profitability and cost management strategies.
3Insights into sales growth trends in key markets.
4Management's perspective on competitive pressures in the dermatology space.
5Details on ongoing research and development initiatives.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

May4

GRABReported

Grab Holdings Limited

RecapView

May4

GBDCReported

Company Snapshot

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative treatments for skin diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$-0.06

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$104M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+19.67%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Arcutis reported an EPS of $0.13, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.11% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to focus on innovative dermatological treatments.
Maintain strong sales growth in existing product lines.
Expand research and development efforts for new therapies.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a loss of $0.06 per share on revenues of $104 million for Q1 2026. Given the company's recent performance, there is cautious optimism about meeting these targets.

Bull Case

If Arcutis can exceed revenue expectations and show a path to profitability, it could lead to a significant stock price increase, especially given its recent earnings surprises.

Bear Case

If the company fails to meet revenue expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, particularly given the high implied volatility.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.06

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$104M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Arcutis achieve revenue of at least $104 million this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this revenue target is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and validating the company's growth strategy.

What is the outlook for profitability in the coming quarters?

Investors will closely watch for any guidance on profitability, as it will impact future stock performance and investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Arcutis' ability to leverage recent product launches, leading to stronger-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance.

Recent insider buying suggests confidence in the company's future prospects.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, reflecting uncertainty that could swing in favor of positive results.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $106 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will either reinforce the bullish sentiment from recent earnings surprises or highlight ongoing challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving revenue of $106 million or more would confirm strong demand for Arcutis' products.

Bear Confirmed If

Falling short of $103 million in revenue would raise concerns about the company's growth trajectory.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±22.84%

Historical Avg

±5.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating uncertainty about the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±22.8% while ARQT has averaged ±5.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.6%

30d HV

50.3%

Calls (5K)P/C Ratio: 0.04Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.3%, with a raw directional average of +2.1% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Arcutis beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.58%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line result may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await further commentary on future growth prospects.

Miss

A miss could result in a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop in stock price, particularly if revenue falls below expectations.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their market reception.
2Guidance on future profitability and cost management strategies.
3Insights into sales growth trends in key markets.
4Management's perspective on competitive pressures in the dermatology space.
5Details on ongoing research and development initiatives.