Equity Profile

ARWR

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$10.4B

May7Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ2-2026After Close4:01 PM EDT

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Beats on EPS, Stock Down 1.5%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.93	$-1.15	+20.85%
Revenue	—	$67M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Beats on EPS, Stock Down 1.5%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.93	$-1.15	+20.85%
Revenue	—	$67M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals reported a narrower loss than expected, which is a positive sign for investors. However, the stock fell by 1.5%, indicating that investors may have been looking for stronger revenue performance or additional insights from management. The lack of guidance and commentary may have contributed to the stock's decline.

Company Snapshot

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing medicines to treat serious diseases by using its proprietary RNA interference technology....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$-1.15

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$67M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing medicines to treat serious diseases by using its proprietary RNA interference technology. With a market cap of $11 billion, Arrowhead is positioned in the healthcare sector, where innovation and advancements in drug development are crucial for addressing unmet medical needs.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+322.88%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.59%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Arrowhead reported an EPS of $0.22, which was significantly below the expected $0.60, leading to a stock decline of 5.02% the following day. The revenue details were not disclosed, leaving investors uncertain about the company's performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Arrowhead's upcoming earnings, with expectations of a continued focus on revenue growth despite recent misses. The consensus estimates suggest a challenging quarter ahead, but there is potential for surprises.

Bull Case

If Arrowhead can exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal strong demand for its products and a turnaround in performance, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its growth trajectory and management's ability to execute on its strategy, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-1.15

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$67M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Arrowhead's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $-1.15?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved operational efficiency and market acceptance of its products, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What revenue figures will Arrowhead report, and how do they compare to the $67M consensus?

Revenue performance is critical to understanding the company's market position and growth potential, especially after recent misses.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street is overly focused on recent earnings misses and may underestimate the potential for a rebound in revenue and EPS this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 7.8% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility, which could indicate a potential surprise.

Insider selling activity, while concerning, does not necessarily reflect the company's long-term potential, especially if upcoming products show promise.

Key Risk

If Arrowhead's revenue exceeds $75M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Arrowhead can recover from its recent earnings disappointments and regain investor trust.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-1.10 or better, along with revenue exceeding $75M, would validate the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-1.50 and revenue below $30M would confirm the bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.8%

Historical Avg

±3.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 7.8%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while ARWR has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

55.4%

Calls (45K)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (16K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 5 (100%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 5 of 5 (100%) reversed within 5 days — this setup typically fades. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.8%, with a raw directional average of +3.0% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Arrowhead beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 7.21%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss again, history suggests a decline of about 0.52%, raising concerns about its growth strategy.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or clinical trial results.
2Management's commentary on revenue drivers and market demand.
3Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
4Details on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth.
5Guidance on future earnings expectations and strategic initiatives.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing medicines to treat serious diseases by using its proprietary RNA interference technology....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$-1.15

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$67M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+322.88%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.59%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Arrowhead can exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal strong demand for its products and a turnaround in performance, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its growth trajectory and management's ability to execute on its strategy, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-1.15

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$67M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Arrowhead's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $-1.15?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved operational efficiency and market acceptance of its products, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What revenue figures will Arrowhead report, and how do they compare to the $67M consensus?

Revenue performance is critical to understanding the company's market position and growth potential, especially after recent misses.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street is overly focused on recent earnings misses and may underestimate the potential for a rebound in revenue and EPS this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 7.8% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility, which could indicate a potential surprise.

Insider selling activity, while concerning, does not necessarily reflect the company's long-term potential, especially if upcoming products show promise.

Key Risk

If Arrowhead's revenue exceeds $75M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Arrowhead can recover from its recent earnings disappointments and regain investor trust.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-1.10 or better, along with revenue exceeding $75M, would validate the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-1.50 and revenue below $30M would confirm the bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.8%

Historical Avg

±3.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 7.8%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while ARWR has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

55.4%

Calls (45K)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (16K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 5 (100%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Arrowhead beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 7.21%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss again, history suggests a decline of about 0.52%, raising concerns about its growth strategy.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or clinical trial results.
2Management's commentary on revenue drivers and market demand.
3Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
4Details on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth.
5Guidance on future earnings expectations and strategic initiatives.