Equity Profile

ARWR

ARROWHEAD PHARMACEUT

Health CareBiotechnology$10.3B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative medicines to treat diseases caused by genetic mutations. With a market cap of $10 billion, it plays a significant role in the healthcare sector, particularly in the development of RNA-targeted therapies, which are gaining attention for their potential to address various serious conditions.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well Arrowhead is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how well Arrowhead is expanding its market presence and whether its products are gaining traction.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARWR Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+322.88%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.59%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Arrowhead reported an EPS of -$0.93, which was better than the expected -$1.18, resulting in a 20.85% surprise. However, the stock fell by 1.50% the following day, reflecting investor caution despite the positive surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Arrowhead's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its momentum after a surprising performance last quarter.

Bull Case

If Arrowhead can report a smaller loss than expected or even a profit, it could signal that its therapies are gaining traction, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss or disappointing revenue growth, it may raise concerns about its future viability and lead to a negative reaction in the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS figure for this quarter?

Given the company's recent performance, a smaller loss or a profit could significantly boost investor confidence.

How is revenue growth trending for Arrowhead's key therapies?

Understanding revenue trends will provide insight into the company's market position and future prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Arrowhead's potential for revenue growth due to its innovative therapies, which could lead to a surprise in earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 21.53% move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with conservative earnings expectations.

Recent insider selling could indicate a lack of confidence in the company's short-term performance, contrasting with the bullish sentiment in the options market.

Key Risk

If Arrowhead's revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Arrowhead's ability to manage costs and generate revenue, especially after mixed results in previous quarters.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS loss of less than $0.80 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $1.00 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.53%

Historical Avg

±3.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while ARWR has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

50.9%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.16Puts (5K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.7M

23,095 sh

2 insiders

Net

$1.7M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 4 open-market trades

Chief Financial OfficerApel Daniel Joseph
$934,285.13

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Arrowhead beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2.86% on the day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience minimal movement as investors await further commentary.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.17%, which could raise concerns about its future.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the progress of key therapies in the pipeline.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on EPS.
3Insights into market demand for Arrowhead's products.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and profitability.
5Responses to any investor concerns raised in previous earnings calls.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well Arrowhead is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how well Arrowhead is expanding its market presence and whether its products are gaining traction.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARWR Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+322.88%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.59%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Arrowhead can report a smaller loss than expected or even a profit, it could signal that its therapies are gaining traction, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss or disappointing revenue growth, it may raise concerns about its future viability and lead to a negative reaction in the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS figure for this quarter?

Given the company's recent performance, a smaller loss or a profit could significantly boost investor confidence.

How is revenue growth trending for Arrowhead's key therapies?

Understanding revenue trends will provide insight into the company's market position and future prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Arrowhead's potential for revenue growth due to its innovative therapies, which could lead to a surprise in earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 21.53% move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with conservative earnings expectations.

Recent insider selling could indicate a lack of confidence in the company's short-term performance, contrasting with the bullish sentiment in the options market.

Key Risk

If Arrowhead's revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Arrowhead's ability to manage costs and generate revenue, especially after mixed results in previous quarters.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS loss of less than $0.80 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $1.00 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.53%

Historical Avg

±3.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while ARWR has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

50.9%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.16Puts (5K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.7M

23,095 sh

2 insiders

Net

$1.7M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 4 open-market trades

Chief Financial OfficerApel Daniel Joseph
$934,285.13

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Arrowhead beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2.86% on the day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience minimal movement as investors await further commentary.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.17%, which could raise concerns about its future.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the progress of key therapies in the pipeline.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on EPS.
3Insights into market demand for Arrowhead's products.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and profitability.
5Responses to any investor concerns raised in previous earnings calls.