Equity Profile

ASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Information TechnologySemiconductor Materials & Equipment$632.8B

Jul15Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

ASML Holding N.V. is a leading supplier of photolithography equipment used in the semiconductor manufacturing process....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a primary indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and capture market share in a competitive industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ASML Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

ASML Holding N.V. is a leading supplier of photolithography equipment used in the semiconductor manufacturing process. As a key player in the Information Technology sector, ASML's technology is crucial for producing advanced chips that power everything from smartphones to AI applications.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+9.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-5.86%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ASML reported an EPS of $8.43, surpassing expectations by 9.27%. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.41% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for ASML's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its strong performance amid market volatility.

Bull Case

The bullish view hinges on ASML continuing to deliver strong EPS growth and demonstrating robust demand for its advanced semiconductor equipment.

Bear Case

On the other hand, a bearish outlook could emerge if the company fails to meet expectations for revenue growth or if there are signs of weakening demand in the semiconductor market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical indicator of profitability, and a significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How does ASML plan to address potential supply chain challenges?

Given the ongoing global supply chain issues, insights into ASML's strategies could affect its operational efficiency and future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate ASML's resilience in the face of supply chain challenges, as its advanced technology continues to be in high demand despite market fluctuations.

Supporting Evidence

ASML has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations that may not align with actual performance.

Recent insider buying signals confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

Key Risk

If ASML's EPS comes in below $7.50, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around ASML's ability to sustain its growth trajectory in a challenging semiconductor market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $9.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $7.50 would support the bear case, suggesting potential weaknesses in demand or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.11%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 15%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while ASML has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

47.4%

Calls (264K)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (555K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ASML beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 7.31%, confirming strong demand and operational success.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of about 4.29%, reflecting disappointment in performance and potential market concerns.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand for advanced lithography systems.
2Insights into supply chain management and its impact on production.
3Guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
4Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could influence growth.
5Management's outlook on the semiconductor market for the remainder of the year.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

ASML Holding N.V. is a leading supplier of photolithography equipment used in the semiconductor manufacturing process....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a primary indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and capture market share in a competitive industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ASML Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+9.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-5.86%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ASML reported an EPS of $8.43, surpassing expectations by 9.27%. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.41% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for ASML's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its strong performance amid market volatility.

Bull Case

The bullish view hinges on ASML continuing to deliver strong EPS growth and demonstrating robust demand for its advanced semiconductor equipment.

Bear Case

On the other hand, a bearish outlook could emerge if the company fails to meet expectations for revenue growth or if there are signs of weakening demand in the semiconductor market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical indicator of profitability, and a significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How does ASML plan to address potential supply chain challenges?

Given the ongoing global supply chain issues, insights into ASML's strategies could affect its operational efficiency and future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate ASML's resilience in the face of supply chain challenges, as its advanced technology continues to be in high demand despite market fluctuations.

Supporting Evidence

ASML has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations that may not align with actual performance.

Recent insider buying signals confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

Key Risk

If ASML's EPS comes in below $7.50, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around ASML's ability to sustain its growth trajectory in a challenging semiconductor market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $9.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $7.50 would support the bear case, suggesting potential weaknesses in demand or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.11%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 15%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while ASML has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

47.4%

Calls (264K)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (555K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ASML beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 7.31%, confirming strong demand and operational success.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of about 4.29%, reflecting disappointment in performance and potential market concerns.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand for advanced lithography systems.
2Insights into supply chain management and its impact on production.
3Guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
4Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could influence growth.
5Management's outlook on the semiconductor market for the remainder of the year.