Equity Profile

AUGO

AURA MINERALS INC

MaterialsGold$5.0B

May6Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) is a gold mining company focused on the exploration and production of gold and other precious metals....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$2.18

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for gold.

$525M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AUGO Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) is a gold mining company focused on the exploration and production of gold and other precious metals. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a significant role in the materials sector, particularly as gold remains a key asset in times of economic uncertainty.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 1Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-92.78%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.13%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2025, Aura Minerals reported an EPS of $0.07, significantly missing the expected $0.97, which led to a 4.13% drop in stock price the following day. Revenue figures were not disclosed, indicating potential volatility in their financial reporting.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Aura Minerals' upcoming earnings, expecting a return to profitability with a consensus EPS of $2.18. However, the significant miss last quarter raises concerns about the company's ability to meet these expectations.

Bull Case

If Aura can successfully report strong earnings and revenue growth, it may restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, another earnings miss could further erode trust in management and lead to a negative stock performance, especially given the recent history of disappointing results.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.18

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$525M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for gold.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $2.18?

This figure is critical as it reflects the company's profitability and could significantly influence investor sentiment.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to the expected $525 million?

Revenue performance will provide insights into market demand and operational efficiency, which are vital for future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be overly optimistic given the recent earnings miss, suggesting that the expected EPS of $2.18 could be too high.

Supporting Evidence

The last quarter's EPS was significantly below expectations, indicating potential ongoing issues.

The options market's implied move of 19.49% reflects high uncertainty, which may not align with the consensus optimism.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $500 million, it could signal deeper operational challenges than the market anticipates.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is crucial for assessing whether Aura can rebound from its previous disappointing performance and regain market confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS of $2.18 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and boost investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS significantly below $2.18 could indicate ongoing operational challenges and lead to a further decline in stock price.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.49%

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Detail

30d HV

93.3%

Calls (15K)P/C Ratio: 0.20Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss setup in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 26 (42%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 11 of 26 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

26.37%

of float

Insider

47.55%

of float

Holders

198

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Capital World Investors
1,620,102 sh · $146.3M
1.93%
Flat

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Aura beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise significantly, potentially confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh management's commentary against the backdrop of previous misses.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history indicates a potential decline in stock price, reflecting continued investor skepticism.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Insights into gold market trends and pricing impacts.
3Management's commentary on cost management and future guidance.
4Details on any new projects or exploration activities.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding the previous quarter's performance.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

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May4

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Company Snapshot

Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) is a gold mining company focused on the exploration and production of gold and other precious metals....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$2.18

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for gold.

$525M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AUGO Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 1Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-92.78%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.13%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Aura can successfully report strong earnings and revenue growth, it may restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, another earnings miss could further erode trust in management and lead to a negative stock performance, especially given the recent history of disappointing results.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.18

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$525M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for gold.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $2.18?

This figure is critical as it reflects the company's profitability and could significantly influence investor sentiment.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to the expected $525 million?

Revenue performance will provide insights into market demand and operational efficiency, which are vital for future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be overly optimistic given the recent earnings miss, suggesting that the expected EPS of $2.18 could be too high.

Supporting Evidence

The last quarter's EPS was significantly below expectations, indicating potential ongoing issues.

The options market's implied move of 19.49% reflects high uncertainty, which may not align with the consensus optimism.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $500 million, it could signal deeper operational challenges than the market anticipates.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is crucial for assessing whether Aura can rebound from its previous disappointing performance and regain market confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS of $2.18 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and boost investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS significantly below $2.18 could indicate ongoing operational challenges and lead to a further decline in stock price.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.49%

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Detail

30d HV

93.3%

Calls (15K)P/C Ratio: 0.20Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss setup in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 26 (42%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

26.37%

of float

Insider

47.55%

of float

Holders

198

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Capital World Investors
1,620,102 sh · $146.3M
1.93%
Flat

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Aura beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise significantly, potentially confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh management's commentary against the backdrop of previous misses.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history indicates a potential decline in stock price, reflecting continued investor skepticism.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Insights into gold market trends and pricing impacts.
3Management's commentary on cost management and future guidance.
4Details on any new projects or exploration activities.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding the previous quarter's performance.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime