Equity Profile

AWR

American States Water Company

UtilitiesWater Utilities$3.3B

Nov6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EST

Company Snapshot

American States Water Company (AWR) operates in the utilities sector, specifically focusing on water utilities. As a provider of essential water services, its performance is closely tied to consumer demand and regulatory factors, making it a critical player in the infrastructure landscape.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate whether the company is expanding its customer base and improving its service offerings.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AWR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.52%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, American States Water reported an EPS of $0.76, slightly missing the estimate of $0.77. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.47% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for American States Water are mixed, with no analyst estimates available for this quarter. Investors will be keen to see if the company can improve upon its recent earnings performance.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on the potential for improved operational efficiency and customer growth, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Bear Case

Conversely, concerns about regulatory pressures and rising operational costs may lead to disappointing results, further impacting investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the EPS figure for Q2-2026?

This number will be crucial in determining whether the company can recover from recent misses and meet investor expectations.

How is the company addressing rising operational costs?

Understanding management's strategy for cost control will be vital for assessing future profitability and stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of operational improvements that could lead to better-than-expected earnings this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company's history of beating EPS estimates 57% of the time suggests potential for a positive surprise.

Options pricing indicates a larger-than-average expected move, reflecting uncertainty that could favor a positive outcome.

The recent trend of operational efficiency improvements may not be fully reflected in current market expectations.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.80, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it follows a trend of mixed earnings surprises, and the market will be watching closely for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant EPS beat, ideally above $0.80, would confirm the bull case and suggest improved operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.61%

Historical Avg

±0.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of approximately 4.61%, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while AWR has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

21.9%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 9.18Puts (14K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

82.84%

of float

Insider

0.82%

of float

Holders

501

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Blackrock Inc.
6,969,137 sh · $553.4M
17.78%
2.1%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AWR beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest positive reaction, potentially around a 0.91% increase.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted response as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 0.07% following earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
2Details on customer growth and retention rates.
3Management's outlook on regulatory changes affecting the water utility sector.
4Insights into capital expenditure plans for infrastructure improvements.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures and market positioning.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate whether the company is expanding its customer base and improving its service offerings.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AWR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.52%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, American States Water reported an EPS of $0.76, slightly missing the estimate of $0.77. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.47% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on the potential for improved operational efficiency and customer growth, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Bear Case

Conversely, concerns about regulatory pressures and rising operational costs may lead to disappointing results, further impacting investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the EPS figure for Q2-2026?

This number will be crucial in determining whether the company can recover from recent misses and meet investor expectations.

How is the company addressing rising operational costs?

Understanding management's strategy for cost control will be vital for assessing future profitability and stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of operational improvements that could lead to better-than-expected earnings this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company's history of beating EPS estimates 57% of the time suggests potential for a positive surprise.

Options pricing indicates a larger-than-average expected move, reflecting uncertainty that could favor a positive outcome.

The recent trend of operational efficiency improvements may not be fully reflected in current market expectations.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.80, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it follows a trend of mixed earnings surprises, and the market will be watching closely for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant EPS beat, ideally above $0.80, would confirm the bull case and suggest improved operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.61%

Historical Avg

±0.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of approximately 4.61%, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while AWR has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

21.9%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 9.18Puts (14K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

82.84%

of float

Insider

0.82%

of float

Holders

501

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Blackrock Inc.
6,969,137 sh · $553.4M
17.78%
2.1%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AWR beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest positive reaction, potentially around a 0.91% increase.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted response as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 0.07% following earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
2Details on customer growth and retention rates.
3Management's outlook on regulatory changes affecting the water utility sector.
4Insights into capital expenditure plans for infrastructure improvements.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures and market positioning.