Equity Profile

BMA

Banco Macro S.A.

FinancialsDiversified Banks$5.1B

Aug26Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2024After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a leading bank in Argentina, providing a range of financial services including retail banking, corporate banking, and investment services....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of the bank's profitability and operational efficiency.

$2170.18

Revenue

Revenue figures help gauge the bank's overall growth and market demand for its services.

$1193.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BMA Q1-2024 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a leading bank in Argentina, providing a range of financial services including retail banking, corporate banking, and investment services. As a key player in the financial sector, its performance is closely tied to the country's economic health and consumer spending patterns.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+65.50%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.00%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Banco Macro reported an impressive EPS of $8.89, significantly exceeding estimates by 340%. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Banco Macro's upcoming earnings, expecting strong EPS driven by previous performance. However, concerns about revenue growth persist.

Bull Case

If the bank can sustain its earnings momentum and report strong revenue figures, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency, leading to positive market sentiment.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if revenue falls short of expectations or if economic conditions worsen, it could lead to a decline in investor confidence and stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2170.18

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of the bank's profitability and operational efficiency.

Revenue

$1193.6B

Revenue figures help gauge the bank's overall growth and market demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $2170.18?

A strong EPS figure would reinforce confidence in the bank's profitability and operational strength.

What will the revenue figure be, and how does it compare to the consensus of $1193.6B?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing the bank's growth trajectory and market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the bank's ability to leverage its strong customer base for revenue growth, especially in a recovering economy.

Supporting Evidence

The bank has a history of beating EPS estimates, suggesting operational resilience.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, reflecting uncertainty that could be mitigated by strong results.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $1193.6B, it could undermine the positive EPS narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the bank's ability to maintain profitability amidst economic pressures and competition.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2170.18 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $1193.6B, would confirm a strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS significantly below $2170.18 or revenue falling short of $1193.6B would indicate potential challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.49%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.5% while BMA has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

60.1%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (49K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Banco Macro beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.26%, confirming strong operational momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day drop of -2.75%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and credit quality.
2Management's outlook on economic conditions in Argentina.
3Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
4Insights into customer demand trends and competitive positioning.
5Any commentary on regulatory impacts on banking operations.

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Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a leading bank in Argentina, providing a range of financial services including retail banking, corporate banking, and investment services....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of the bank's profitability and operational efficiency.

$2170.18

Revenue

Revenue figures help gauge the bank's overall growth and market demand for its services.

$1193.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BMA Q1-2024 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+65.50%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.00%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Banco Macro's upcoming earnings, expecting strong EPS driven by previous performance. However, concerns about revenue growth persist.

Bull Case

If the bank can sustain its earnings momentum and report strong revenue figures, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency, leading to positive market sentiment.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if revenue falls short of expectations or if economic conditions worsen, it could lead to a decline in investor confidence and stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2170.18

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of the bank's profitability and operational efficiency.

Revenue

$1193.6B

Revenue figures help gauge the bank's overall growth and market demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $2170.18?

A strong EPS figure would reinforce confidence in the bank's profitability and operational strength.

What will the revenue figure be, and how does it compare to the consensus of $1193.6B?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing the bank's growth trajectory and market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the bank's ability to leverage its strong customer base for revenue growth, especially in a recovering economy.

Supporting Evidence

The bank has a history of beating EPS estimates, suggesting operational resilience.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, reflecting uncertainty that could be mitigated by strong results.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $1193.6B, it could undermine the positive EPS narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the bank's ability to maintain profitability amidst economic pressures and competition.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2170.18 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $1193.6B, would confirm a strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS significantly below $2170.18 or revenue falling short of $1193.6B would indicate potential challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.49%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.5% while BMA has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

60.1%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (49K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Banco Macro beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.26%, confirming strong operational momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day drop of -2.75%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and credit quality.
2Management's outlook on economic conditions in Argentina.
3Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
4Insights into customer demand trends and competitive positioning.
5Any commentary on regulatory impacts on banking operations.