Equity Profile

BMA

Banco Macro S.A.

FinancialsDiversified Banks$5.4B

Aug26Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2024After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a major player in the financial sector, focusing on diversified banking services in Argentina....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$2170.18

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth potential.

$1193.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BMA Q1-2024 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a major player in the financial sector, focusing on diversified banking services in Argentina. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a crucial role in providing banking solutions to individuals and businesses, which is particularly important in a fluctuating economic environment.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+65.50%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.00%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2023, Banco Macro reported an impressive EPS of $8.89, significantly exceeding estimates. This strong performance led to a slight increase in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about Banco Macro's upcoming earnings, with expectations for strong EPS and revenue growth. However, there are concerns about potential volatility in the financial sector.

Bull Case

If Banco Macro can meet or exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal robust financial health and attract more investors, potentially driving the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may lead to a decline in investor confidence and a drop in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$2170.18

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$1193.6B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2170.18?

A strong EPS performance could reinforce investor confidence and support a positive stock reaction.

What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?

Management's outlook on revenue can significantly influence investor sentiment and expectations for the coming quarters.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Banco Macro's ability to leverage recent economic trends for growth, especially given its strong performance last quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect more volatility than the consensus anticipates.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $2003.90, it could undermine the positive sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will set the tone for investor sentiment and expectations moving forward.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS above $2170.18 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2003.90 would validate the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.73%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect considerable volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.5% while BMA has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

60.1%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (49K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 26 (42%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 11 of 26 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Banco Macro beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around +2.26%, confirming a strong growth narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about -2.75%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and credit quality.
2Management's commentary on macroeconomic conditions affecting the banking sector.
3Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
4Future guidance on revenue and profit margins.
5Any strategic initiatives aimed at expanding market share.

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Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a major player in the financial sector, focusing on diversified banking services in Argentina....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$2170.18

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth potential.

$1193.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BMA Q1-2024 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+65.50%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.00%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2023, Banco Macro reported an impressive EPS of $8.89, significantly exceeding estimates. This strong performance led to a slight increase in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Banco Macro can meet or exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal robust financial health and attract more investors, potentially driving the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may lead to a decline in investor confidence and a drop in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$2170.18

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$1193.6B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2170.18?

A strong EPS performance could reinforce investor confidence and support a positive stock reaction.

What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?

Management's outlook on revenue can significantly influence investor sentiment and expectations for the coming quarters.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Banco Macro's ability to leverage recent economic trends for growth, especially given its strong performance last quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect more volatility than the consensus anticipates.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $2003.90, it could undermine the positive sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will set the tone for investor sentiment and expectations moving forward.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS above $2170.18 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2003.90 would validate the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.73%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect considerable volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.5% while BMA has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

60.1%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (49K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 26 (42%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Banco Macro beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around +2.26%, confirming a strong growth narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about -2.75%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and credit quality.
2Management's commentary on macroeconomic conditions affecting the banking sector.
3Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
4Future guidance on revenue and profit margins.
5Any strategic initiatives aimed at expanding market share.