Equity Profile

BMA

Banco Macro S.A.

FinancialsDiversified Banks$5.8B

Aug26Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2024After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a leading financial institution in Argentina, providing a wide range of banking services including retail and corporate banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely watch.

$2170.18

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth potential.

$1193.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BMA Q1-2024 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a leading financial institution in Argentina, providing a wide range of banking services including retail and corporate banking. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a crucial role in the financial sector, especially as consumer spending and economic conditions fluctuate in the region.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+65.50%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.00%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2023, Banco Macro reported an impressive EPS of $8.89, significantly beating estimates. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Banco Macro to report strong earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2170.18. The market is keenly observing how the bank navigates the current economic landscape.

Bull Case

If Banco Macro exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and growth, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank misses EPS estimates, it may raise concerns about its ability to manage costs and maintain profitability in a challenging environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2170.18

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely watch.

Revenue

$1193.6B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Banco Macro's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2170.18?

A beat on EPS would indicate strong financial health and could lead to a positive market reaction.

What insights can management provide about revenue growth in the current economic climate?

Understanding revenue trends is crucial for assessing the bank's performance and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Banco Macro's ability to manage costs effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings despite economic pressures.

Supporting Evidence

Historically, Banco Macro has a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating strong performance potential.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent economic indicators in Argentina may not fully reflect the bank's operational resilience.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $2200, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it reflects the bank's ability to adapt to economic challenges and maintain profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2200 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2000 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the bank's financial stability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.49%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.5% while BMA has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

60.1%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (49K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Banco Macro beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.26%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about -2.75%, indicating market concerns over the bank's financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any guidance on revenue growth in the current economic environment.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into customer demand trends and loan growth.
4Management's outlook on the macroeconomic landscape in Argentina.
5Any updates on regulatory changes affecting the banking sector.

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Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a leading financial institution in Argentina, providing a wide range of banking services including retail and corporate banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely watch.

$2170.18

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth potential.

$1193.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BMA Q1-2024 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+65.50%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.00%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2023, Banco Macro reported an impressive EPS of $8.89, significantly beating estimates. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Banco Macro to report strong earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2170.18. The market is keenly observing how the bank navigates the current economic landscape.

Bull Case

If Banco Macro exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and growth, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank misses EPS estimates, it may raise concerns about its ability to manage costs and maintain profitability in a challenging environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2170.18

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely watch.

Revenue

$1193.6B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Banco Macro's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2170.18?

A beat on EPS would indicate strong financial health and could lead to a positive market reaction.

What insights can management provide about revenue growth in the current economic climate?

Understanding revenue trends is crucial for assessing the bank's performance and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Banco Macro's ability to manage costs effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings despite economic pressures.

Supporting Evidence

Historically, Banco Macro has a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating strong performance potential.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent economic indicators in Argentina may not fully reflect the bank's operational resilience.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $2200, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it reflects the bank's ability to adapt to economic challenges and maintain profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2200 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2000 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the bank's financial stability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.49%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.5% while BMA has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

60.1%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (49K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Banco Macro beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.26%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about -2.75%, indicating market concerns over the bank's financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any guidance on revenue growth in the current economic environment.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into customer demand trends and loan growth.
4Management's outlook on the macroeconomic landscape in Argentina.
5Any updates on regulatory changes affecting the banking sector.