Equity Profile

BTU

Peabody Energy Corporation

EnergyCoal & Consumable Fuels$3.4B

May5Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:46 AM EDT

Peabody Energy Misses on EPS, Stock Down 5.73%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.27	$0.10	-2600.00%
Revenue	—	$967M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Peabody Energy Misses on EPS, Stock Down 5.73%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.27	$0.10	-2600.00%
Revenue	—	$967M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Peabody Energy's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, with the company reporting a loss instead of the expected profit. This disappointing performance likely contributed to the stock's decline of 5.73% in reaction to the news. Investors may be concerned about the company's financial health given the lack of revenue data and guidance.

Company Snapshot

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is a leading coal producer in the energy sector, focusing on the extraction and sale of coal for electricity generation and steel production. As the world transitions to cleaner energy sources, Peabody's role in the coal industry remains significant, especially in regions where coal is still a primary energy source.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$0.10

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for coal.

$967M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-594.29%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Peabody reported an EPS of $0.09, slightly below expectations, resulting in a stock decline of 2.20% the following day. The company has faced challenges in meeting analyst estimates consistently.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a modest recovery in earnings with a consensus EPS of $0.10 for Q1-2026, indicating cautious optimism. Revenue expectations are set at $967 million, reflecting steady demand.

Bull Case

If Peabody can exceed the EPS estimate, it may signal improved operational efficiency and stronger market demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate market challenges, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.10

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$967M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for coal.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Peabody's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.10?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and operational improvements, which the market is keen to see after recent misses.

What are the revenue figures compared to the $967 million consensus?

Revenue performance is critical to understanding market demand and the company's sales trajectory, especially in a fluctuating energy market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in coal demand, especially in regions where coal remains a primary energy source.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

Despite recent misses, Peabody's operational adjustments could lead to improved margins and profitability.

The coal market may be stabilizing, which could positively impact Peabody's revenue and earnings.

Key Risk

If Peabody reports an EPS above $0.12, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Peabody can recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate stronger financial health.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.12 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating better-than-expected profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.21%

Historical Avg

±5.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.6% while BTU has averaged ±5.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.0%

30d HV

64.5%

Calls (900K)P/C Ratio: 0.37Puts (337K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Peabody beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.91%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.05%, reinforcing concerns about the company's ability to meet market challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal demand trends in key markets.
2Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into pricing power and market conditions for coal.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue growth.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent performance and strategic initiatives.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$0.10

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for coal.

$967M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-594.29%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a modest recovery in earnings with a consensus EPS of $0.10 for Q1-2026, indicating cautious optimism. Revenue expectations are set at $967 million, reflecting steady demand.

Bull Case

If Peabody can exceed the EPS estimate, it may signal improved operational efficiency and stronger market demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate market challenges, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.10

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$967M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for coal.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Peabody's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.10?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and operational improvements, which the market is keen to see after recent misses.

What are the revenue figures compared to the $967 million consensus?

Revenue performance is critical to understanding market demand and the company's sales trajectory, especially in a fluctuating energy market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in coal demand, especially in regions where coal remains a primary energy source.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

Despite recent misses, Peabody's operational adjustments could lead to improved margins and profitability.

The coal market may be stabilizing, which could positively impact Peabody's revenue and earnings.

Key Risk

If Peabody reports an EPS above $0.12, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Peabody can recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate stronger financial health.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.12 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating better-than-expected profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.21%

Historical Avg

±5.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.6% while BTU has averaged ±5.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.0%

30d HV

64.5%

Calls (900K)P/C Ratio: 0.37Puts (337K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Peabody beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.91%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.05%, reinforcing concerns about the company's ability to meet market challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal demand trends in key markets.
2Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into pricing power and market conditions for coal.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue growth.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent performance and strategic initiatives.