Equity Profile

BUSE

First Busey Corporation

FinancialsRegional Banks$2.3B

Apr22Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

First Busey Corporation is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services including loans, deposits, and wealth management. With a market cap of $2 billion, it plays an important role in the financial sector, particularly in supporting local businesses and communities.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid, which is crucial for bank profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BUSE Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-20.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.04%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, First Busey reported an EPS of $0.52, falling short of expectations by 9.09%. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.08% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the bank's history of beating EPS estimates 75% of the time. However, the recent EPS miss may raise concerns about future performance.

Bull Case

If First Busey can demonstrate strong loan growth and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could lead to a positive surprise and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued weakness in loan growth or a declining net interest margin, it may reinforce bearish sentiment and lead to a sell-off.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current loan growth rate compared to last quarter?

Loan growth is critical for revenue generation, and any decline could signal weakening demand.

How has the net interest margin changed this quarter?

A stable or improving net interest margin is essential for maintaining profitability in a competitive banking environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for loan growth due to recent economic conditions, which could lead to a positive surprise this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The historical EPS beat rate of 75% suggests the company has a strong track record of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, suggesting traders are anticipating volatility that could favor the upside.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds 5%, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus will be on how well First Busey can navigate the current economic environment and maintain its growth trajectory.

Bull Confirmed If

Loan growth of 5% or better compared to the previous quarter, indicating strong demand for credit.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in net interest margin below 3%, suggesting pressure on profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.45%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.4% while BUSE has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

21.4%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$20,062.50

750 sh

1 insider

Net

$20,062.50

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If First Busey beats expectations, history suggests a potential average stock increase of +0.79%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down as investors assess future risks.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests an average decline of +1.77%, which could lead to increased bearish sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth figures and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Details on net interest margin and any factors affecting it this quarter.
3Management's outlook on economic conditions and their impact on future performance.
4Insights into customer demand for banking services and products.
5Any commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid, which is crucial for bank profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BUSE Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-20.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.04%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, First Busey reported an EPS of $0.52, falling short of expectations by 9.09%. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.08% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If First Busey can demonstrate strong loan growth and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could lead to a positive surprise and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued weakness in loan growth or a declining net interest margin, it may reinforce bearish sentiment and lead to a sell-off.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current loan growth rate compared to last quarter?

Loan growth is critical for revenue generation, and any decline could signal weakening demand.

How has the net interest margin changed this quarter?

A stable or improving net interest margin is essential for maintaining profitability in a competitive banking environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for loan growth due to recent economic conditions, which could lead to a positive surprise this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The historical EPS beat rate of 75% suggests the company has a strong track record of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, suggesting traders are anticipating volatility that could favor the upside.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds 5%, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus will be on how well First Busey can navigate the current economic environment and maintain its growth trajectory.

Bull Confirmed If

Loan growth of 5% or better compared to the previous quarter, indicating strong demand for credit.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in net interest margin below 3%, suggesting pressure on profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.45%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.4% while BUSE has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

21.4%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$20,062.50

750 sh

1 insider

Net

$20,062.50

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If First Busey beats expectations, history suggests a potential average stock increase of +0.79%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down as investors assess future risks.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests an average decline of +1.77%, which could lead to increased bearish sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth figures and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Details on net interest margin and any factors affecting it this quarter.
3Management's outlook on economic conditions and their impact on future performance.
4Insights into customer demand for banking services and products.
5Any commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.