Equity Profile

BXMT

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$3.1B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Misses on EPS, Stock Down 5.2%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.21	$0.35	-38.24%
Revenue	N/A	$92M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Misses on EPS, Stock Down 5.2%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.21	$0.35	-38.24%
Revenue	N/A	$92M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Defensive

Overall, management expressed concern about the current economic environment affecting performance. They highlighted efforts to navigate these challenges while maintaining asset quality.

Management acknowledged the challenging market conditions impacting earnings.

They emphasized a focus on maintaining portfolio quality despite lower returns.

What It Means

The earnings report indicates that Blackstone Mortgage Trust faced significant challenges this quarter, leading to a notable miss on EPS. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 5.2%, likely due to investor concerns about the company's ability to generate expected earnings in a tough market. Without guidance, investors may remain cautious about future performance.

Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in mortgage loans secured by commercial properties....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge how well BXMT is managing its mortgage investments.

0.35

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insights into the overall performance of BXMT's mortgage portfolio and its ability to generate income from its investments.

92M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in mortgage loans secured by commercial properties. As part of the financial sector, BXMT plays a crucial role in providing financing solutions in a fluctuating real estate market, which is particularly relevant given current economic conditions and interest rate trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+64.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, BXMT reported an EPS of $0.64, significantly exceeding expectations of $0.20, which marked a strong performance. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.04% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on high-quality mortgage loans.
Commitment to maintaining strong capital management practices.
Plans to explore new investment opportunities in commercial real estate.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect BXMT to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.35. The company has a history of beating earnings expectations, which could lead to positive market reactions.

Bull Case

If BXMT can maintain or exceed its previous EPS performance, it may signal strong management and a healthy mortgage portfolio, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet the consensus EPS or shows signs of weakening in its mortgage investments, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.35

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge how well BXMT is managing its mortgage investments.

Revenue

92M

Revenue figures will provide insights into the overall performance of BXMT's mortgage portfolio and its ability to generate income from its investments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will BXMT's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.35?

A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence in the company's management and its mortgage portfolio's performance.

What insights will BXMT provide regarding its revenue generation from mortgage investments?

Understanding revenue trends will be crucial for assessing the company's future growth potential and stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate BXMT's ability to generate revenue from its mortgage portfolio, given its recent strong performance and strategic focus on high-quality loans.

Supporting Evidence

BXMT has consistently beaten EPS expectations, suggesting stronger operational performance than anticipated.

The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, indicating that traders may not fully appreciate the potential for a significant upside.

Key Risk

If BXMT reports an EPS significantly above $0.35, it could shift market sentiment and challenge the current consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be pivotal in determining whether BXMT can sustain its recent momentum or if it will face challenges in a changing economic landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.45 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.20 would raise concerns about the company's mortgage portfolio and management effectiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.64%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 3.64%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.1% while BXMT has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.6%

Calls (8K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (43K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.4%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If BXMT beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 1.1% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

Should BXMT miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 1.5%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the performance of BXMT's mortgage portfolio and loan quality.
2Management's commentary on future investment strategies and market conditions.
3Insights into revenue generation and any changes in interest rates affecting the business.
4Details on capital management strategies and their impact on future earnings.
5Any guidance on expected trends in the commercial real estate market.

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Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in mortgage loans secured by commercial properties....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge how well BXMT is managing its mortgage investments.

0.35

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insights into the overall performance of BXMT's mortgage portfolio and its ability to generate income from its investments.

92M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+64.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, BXMT reported an EPS of $0.64, significantly exceeding expectations of $0.20, which marked a strong performance. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.04% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on high-quality mortgage loans.
Commitment to maintaining strong capital management practices.
Plans to explore new investment opportunities in commercial real estate.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect BXMT to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.35. The company has a history of beating earnings expectations, which could lead to positive market reactions.

Bull Case

If BXMT can maintain or exceed its previous EPS performance, it may signal strong management and a healthy mortgage portfolio, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet the consensus EPS or shows signs of weakening in its mortgage investments, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.35

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge how well BXMT is managing its mortgage investments.

Revenue

92M

Revenue figures will provide insights into the overall performance of BXMT's mortgage portfolio and its ability to generate income from its investments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will BXMT's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.35?

A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence in the company's management and its mortgage portfolio's performance.

What insights will BXMT provide regarding its revenue generation from mortgage investments?

Understanding revenue trends will be crucial for assessing the company's future growth potential and stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate BXMT's ability to generate revenue from its mortgage portfolio, given its recent strong performance and strategic focus on high-quality loans.

Supporting Evidence

BXMT has consistently beaten EPS expectations, suggesting stronger operational performance than anticipated.

The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, indicating that traders may not fully appreciate the potential for a significant upside.

Key Risk

If BXMT reports an EPS significantly above $0.35, it could shift market sentiment and challenge the current consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be pivotal in determining whether BXMT can sustain its recent momentum or if it will face challenges in a changing economic landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.45 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.20 would raise concerns about the company's mortgage portfolio and management effectiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.64%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 3.64%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.1% while BXMT has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.6%

Calls (8K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (43K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.4%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If BXMT beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 1.1% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

Should BXMT miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 1.5%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the performance of BXMT's mortgage portfolio and loan quality.
2Management's commentary on future investment strategies and market conditions.
3Insights into revenue generation and any changes in interest rates affecting the business.
4Details on capital management strategies and their impact on future earnings.
5Any guidance on expected trends in the commercial real estate market.