Equity Profile

CG

The Carlyle Group Inc.

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$15.9B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the total market value of the investments managed by Carlyle, indicating growth and investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $16 billion, it plays a significant role in managing investments across various sectors, which is essential for investors looking for exposure to diverse asset classes.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an EPS of -$0.37, significantly missing expectations of $0.91. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.96% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Commitment to improving investment strategies.
Focus on increasing assets under management.
Plans to enhance operational efficiencies.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the upcoming earnings report, especially after the significant EPS miss last quarter. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and growth.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can demonstrate a rebound in EPS and growth in AUM, it could restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Continued underperformance in earnings and a lack of growth in AUM could further dampen investor sentiment and lead to a significant drop in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss last quarter, the market will closely watch for any signs of recovery in profitability.

How much growth in Assets Under Management can Carlyle report?

A positive trend in AUM is critical for future revenue growth and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be overly pessimistic about Carlyle's ability to rebound, given its recent strategic shifts and market conditions.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent trends in the asset management sector show signs of recovery that could benefit Carlyle.

The company has committed to improving operational efficiencies, which may not be fully reflected in current expectations.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly shift the market's perception of Carlyle's recovery potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around Carlyle's ability to recover from recent earnings misses and grow its AUM.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below -$0.20 would confirm the bear case and suggest ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.04%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.67%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.55%, further eroding investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the company's strategy to increase assets under management.
2Any commentary on market conditions affecting investment performance.
3Details on cost management initiatives and their impact on profitability.
4Insights into client sentiment and demand for investment products.
5Management's outlook on future earnings and growth prospects.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Aug3

ONBMO

ON Semiconductor Corporation

PreviewView

Aug3

LBMO

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the total market value of the investments managed by Carlyle, indicating growth and investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an EPS of -$0.37, significantly missing expectations of $0.91. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.96% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Commitment to improving investment strategies.
Focus on increasing assets under management.
Plans to enhance operational efficiencies.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the upcoming earnings report, especially after the significant EPS miss last quarter. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and growth.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can demonstrate a rebound in EPS and growth in AUM, it could restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Continued underperformance in earnings and a lack of growth in AUM could further dampen investor sentiment and lead to a significant drop in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss last quarter, the market will closely watch for any signs of recovery in profitability.

How much growth in Assets Under Management can Carlyle report?

A positive trend in AUM is critical for future revenue growth and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be overly pessimistic about Carlyle's ability to rebound, given its recent strategic shifts and market conditions.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent trends in the asset management sector show signs of recovery that could benefit Carlyle.

The company has committed to improving operational efficiencies, which may not be fully reflected in current expectations.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly shift the market's perception of Carlyle's recovery potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around Carlyle's ability to recover from recent earnings misses and grow its AUM.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below -$0.20 would confirm the bear case and suggest ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.04%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.67%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.55%, further eroding investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the company's strategy to increase assets under management.
2Any commentary on market conditions affecting investment performance.
3Details on cost management initiatives and their impact on profitability.
4Insights into client sentiment and demand for investment products.
5Management's outlook on future earnings and growth prospects.