Equity Profile

CG

The Carlyle Group Inc.

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$15.7B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM is a key indicator of the firm's ability to attract and retain investors, impacting revenue generation.

N/A

Management Fees

Management fees directly contribute to revenue, and any changes can indicate shifts in investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $16 billion, it plays a significant role in managing investments across various sectors, which is crucial for understanding trends in financial markets.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.37, significantly missing estimates of $0.91. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.96% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of Carlyle's Q2 earnings, especially after a series of earnings misses. The focus will be on management's ability to stabilize performance and regain investor confidence.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can show improved AUM and a rebound in performance fees, it may signal a turnaround, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Continued underperformance in earnings and AUM could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant drop in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current level of Assets Under Management (AUM) and how does it compare to previous quarters?

AUM is a critical metric that indicates the firm's market position and ability to generate revenue.

How have performance fees changed this quarter compared to the last?

Changes in performance fees will provide insight into the firm's investment success and overall profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in AUM and performance fees, which could lead to a surprise positive reaction.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 19.04% move, indicating significant uncertainty that could lead to a larger reaction.

Carlyle's historical performance shows a tendency to stabilize after a series of misses, suggesting potential for recovery.

The current market sentiment may be overly pessimistic given the firm's long-term investment strategies.

Key Risk

If AUM shows unexpected growth or performance fees exceed expectations, it could shift market sentiment dramatically.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Carlyle's ability to stabilize its AUM and improve performance fees after a series of earnings misses.

Bull Confirmed If

AUM growth of 5% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in AUM or performance fees below expectations would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.04%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.67%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

If Carlyle misses again, history suggests a potential drop of around 2.55%, further damaging investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the firm's strategy to increase Assets Under Management (AUM).
2Details on changes in performance fees and their drivers this quarter.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and investor sentiment.
4Insights into new investment opportunities or sectors of focus.
5Any commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.

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Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM is a key indicator of the firm's ability to attract and retain investors, impacting revenue generation.

N/A

Management Fees

Management fees directly contribute to revenue, and any changes can indicate shifts in investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.37, significantly missing estimates of $0.91. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.96% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of Carlyle's Q2 earnings, especially after a series of earnings misses. The focus will be on management's ability to stabilize performance and regain investor confidence.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can show improved AUM and a rebound in performance fees, it may signal a turnaround, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Continued underperformance in earnings and AUM could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant drop in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current level of Assets Under Management (AUM) and how does it compare to previous quarters?

AUM is a critical metric that indicates the firm's market position and ability to generate revenue.

How have performance fees changed this quarter compared to the last?

Changes in performance fees will provide insight into the firm's investment success and overall profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in AUM and performance fees, which could lead to a surprise positive reaction.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 19.04% move, indicating significant uncertainty that could lead to a larger reaction.

Carlyle's historical performance shows a tendency to stabilize after a series of misses, suggesting potential for recovery.

The current market sentiment may be overly pessimistic given the firm's long-term investment strategies.

Key Risk

If AUM shows unexpected growth or performance fees exceed expectations, it could shift market sentiment dramatically.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Carlyle's ability to stabilize its AUM and improve performance fees after a series of earnings misses.

Bull Confirmed If

AUM growth of 5% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in AUM or performance fees below expectations would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.04%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.67%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

If Carlyle misses again, history suggests a potential drop of around 2.55%, further damaging investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the firm's strategy to increase Assets Under Management (AUM).
2Details on changes in performance fees and their drivers this quarter.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and investor sentiment.
4Insights into new investment opportunities or sectors of focus.
5Any commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.