Equity Profile

CG

The Carlyle Group Inc.

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$18.3B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM is a key indicator of the company's growth and investor confidence, impacting revenue generation.

N/A

Management Fees

Management fees directly affect the company's revenue and profitability, making it a critical metric to watch this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $18 billion, it plays a crucial role in managing investments across various sectors, which can be influenced by trends in financial markets and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an EPS of -$0.37, significantly missing expectations of $0.91. This disappointing performance led to a 0.96% decline in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Carlyle's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially after a series of earnings misses. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in AUM and management fees.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can show improved investment performance and a rebound in AUM, it could restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued underperformance in earnings and AUM could lead to further declines in stock price, as investor sentiment remains fragile.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current level of Assets Under Management (AUM) and how does it compare to last quarter?

AUM is a critical metric that reflects investor confidence and can significantly impact revenue and future growth.

What is the outlook for management fees in the current market environment?

Management fees directly affect profitability, and any guidance on this front will be closely scrutinized by investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in AUM due to recent market volatility, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 19.04% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.

Carlyle has historically shown resilience in challenging markets, which may not be fully reflected in current expectations.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds 5%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Carlyle can stabilize and grow its AUM in a challenging market.

Bull Confirmed If

AUM growth of 5% or more compared to last quarter, indicating strong investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

AUM decline of 5% or more, which would signal ongoing challenges in attracting and retaining investments.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.04%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.55% based on historical patterns, further dampening investor sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the current level of Assets Under Management (AUM).
2Insights into management fees and their expected trajectory.
3Comments on investment performance and how it compares to industry benchmarks.
4Guidance on future capital inflows and investor sentiment.
5Any strategic changes in response to market conditions.

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Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM is a key indicator of the company's growth and investor confidence, impacting revenue generation.

N/A

Management Fees

Management fees directly affect the company's revenue and profitability, making it a critical metric to watch this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an EPS of -$0.37, significantly missing expectations of $0.91. This disappointing performance led to a 0.96% decline in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Carlyle's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially after a series of earnings misses. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in AUM and management fees.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can show improved investment performance and a rebound in AUM, it could restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued underperformance in earnings and AUM could lead to further declines in stock price, as investor sentiment remains fragile.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current level of Assets Under Management (AUM) and how does it compare to last quarter?

AUM is a critical metric that reflects investor confidence and can significantly impact revenue and future growth.

What is the outlook for management fees in the current market environment?

Management fees directly affect profitability, and any guidance on this front will be closely scrutinized by investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in AUM due to recent market volatility, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 19.04% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.

Carlyle has historically shown resilience in challenging markets, which may not be fully reflected in current expectations.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds 5%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Carlyle can stabilize and grow its AUM in a challenging market.

Bull Confirmed If

AUM growth of 5% or more compared to last quarter, indicating strong investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

AUM decline of 5% or more, which would signal ongoing challenges in attracting and retaining investments.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.04%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.55% based on historical patterns, further dampening investor sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the current level of Assets Under Management (AUM).
2Insights into management fees and their expected trajectory.
3Comments on investment performance and how it compares to industry benchmarks.
4Guidance on future capital inflows and investor sentiment.
5Any strategic changes in response to market conditions.