Equity Profile

CLF

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.

MaterialsSteel$6.9B

Jul20Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading steel producer in North America, focusing on iron ore and steelmaking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is crucial for assessing profitability and market expectations.

$-0.20

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand.

$5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading steel producer in North America, focusing on iron ore and steelmaking. As a key player in the materials sector, its performance is closely tied to trends in construction and manufacturing, making it an important indicator of economic health.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs reported an EPS of $-0.40, outperforming expectations by 9.5%. The stock reacted negatively, declining 2.11% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Cleveland-Cliffs to report a loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.20. Revenue expectations are set at $5.2 billion, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing market challenges.

Bull Case

If the company can exceed EPS expectations and show signs of revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in demand for steel, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again, it could raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges and market demand, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.20

Earnings per share (EPS) is crucial for assessing profitability and market expectations.

Revenue

$5.2B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.20?

A positive surprise in EPS could indicate stronger operational performance and boost investor sentiment.

What is the revenue outlook given the consensus of $5.2 billion?

Revenue performance is critical to understanding demand trends and the company's market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a revenue rebound, as recent industry trends suggest stronger demand for steel than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Cleveland-Cliffs has historically surprised on the upside in earnings, with a 50% beat rate.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for volatility.

Recent trends in construction and manufacturing suggest a recovery in steel demand that could positively impact revenue.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $5.3 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for recovery against ongoing challenges in the steel industry.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-0.14 or better would confirm the bull case, suggesting improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of $-0.27 or worse would confirm the bear case, indicating deeper operational issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.8%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors assess management's commentary on future guidance.

Miss

A miss could result in a decline of approximately 2.02%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on steel demand from key sectors like construction and automotive.
2Management's commentary on cost control measures and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into pricing strategies for steel products in the current market environment.
4Any guidance on future production levels and capacity utilization.
5Updates on any potential mergers or acquisitions that could impact growth.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading steel producer in North America, focusing on iron ore and steelmaking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is crucial for assessing profitability and market expectations.

$-0.20

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand.

$5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs reported an EPS of $-0.40, outperforming expectations by 9.5%. The stock reacted negatively, declining 2.11% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company can exceed EPS expectations and show signs of revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in demand for steel, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again, it could raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges and market demand, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.20

Earnings per share (EPS) is crucial for assessing profitability and market expectations.

Revenue

$5.2B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.20?

A positive surprise in EPS could indicate stronger operational performance and boost investor sentiment.

What is the revenue outlook given the consensus of $5.2 billion?

Revenue performance is critical to understanding demand trends and the company's market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a revenue rebound, as recent industry trends suggest stronger demand for steel than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Cleveland-Cliffs has historically surprised on the upside in earnings, with a 50% beat rate.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for volatility.

Recent trends in construction and manufacturing suggest a recovery in steel demand that could positively impact revenue.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $5.3 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for recovery against ongoing challenges in the steel industry.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-0.14 or better would confirm the bull case, suggesting improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of $-0.27 or worse would confirm the bear case, indicating deeper operational issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.8%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors assess management's commentary on future guidance.

Miss

A miss could result in a decline of approximately 2.02%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on steel demand from key sectors like construction and automotive.
2Management's commentary on cost control measures and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into pricing strategies for steel products in the current market environment.
4Any guidance on future production levels and capacity utilization.
5Updates on any potential mergers or acquisitions that could impact growth.