Equity Profile

CLF

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.

MaterialsSteel$7.7B

Jul20Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, operating in the materials sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share will indicate the company's profitability and how it compares to analyst expectations.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for steel products.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, operating in the materials sector. The company plays a crucial role in the steel supply chain, which is essential for various industries including construction and automotive.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Cleveland-Cliffs reported an EPS of -$0.40, which was better than the expected -$0.44, resulting in a 9.5% surprise. However, the stock fell by 2.11% the next day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially given the company's recent performance and lack of guidance. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Cleveland-Cliffs can report a smaller loss than expected or even a profit, it could signal a turnaround in demand for steel, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports larger losses or disappointing revenue, it could reinforce concerns about the steel market and lead to further declines in the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS figure be this quarter?

The EPS result will be crucial in determining if the company is moving towards profitability or continuing to struggle, impacting investor sentiment.

How does management view demand for steel in the upcoming quarters?

Management's outlook on steel demand will provide insight into future revenue potential and overall market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Cleveland-Cliffs to outperform expectations due to recent improvements in operational efficiency.

Supporting Evidence

Cleveland-Cliffs has historically surprised on the upside 50% of the time, indicating potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant news.

Recent steel price trends indicate a possible rebound in demand that the Street may not fully appreciate.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in better than expected, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Cleveland-Cliffs can stabilize its earnings amidst fluctuating steel prices and demand.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS loss of less than $0.30 would indicate stronger-than-expected demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $0.50 would confirm ongoing struggles in the steel market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.80%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.02%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance and market conditions.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on steel pricing trends and how they affect margins.
2Management's commentary on operational improvements and cost management.
3Insights into demand forecasts for the steel industry in the coming quarters.
4Any changes in production capacity or supply chain issues.
5Details on strategic initiatives or partnerships that could drive future growth.

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Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, operating in the materials sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share will indicate the company's profitability and how it compares to analyst expectations.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for steel products.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Cleveland-Cliffs can report a smaller loss than expected or even a profit, it could signal a turnaround in demand for steel, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports larger losses or disappointing revenue, it could reinforce concerns about the steel market and lead to further declines in the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS figure be this quarter?

The EPS result will be crucial in determining if the company is moving towards profitability or continuing to struggle, impacting investor sentiment.

How does management view demand for steel in the upcoming quarters?

Management's outlook on steel demand will provide insight into future revenue potential and overall market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Cleveland-Cliffs to outperform expectations due to recent improvements in operational efficiency.

Supporting Evidence

Cleveland-Cliffs has historically surprised on the upside 50% of the time, indicating potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant news.

Recent steel price trends indicate a possible rebound in demand that the Street may not fully appreciate.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in better than expected, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Cleveland-Cliffs can stabilize its earnings amidst fluctuating steel prices and demand.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS loss of less than $0.30 would indicate stronger-than-expected demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $0.50 would confirm ongoing struggles in the steel market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.80%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.02%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance and market conditions.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on steel pricing trends and how they affect margins.
2Management's commentary on operational improvements and cost management.
3Insights into demand forecasts for the steel industry in the coming quarters.
4Any changes in production capacity or supply chain issues.
5Details on strategic initiatives or partnerships that could drive future growth.