Equity Profile

CLF

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.

MaterialsSteel$7.7B

Jul20Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, primarily serving the automotive and construction industries....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue

Revenue figures will indicate how well the company is performing in a challenging steel market.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will show how effectively the company is managing costs amid fluctuating steel prices.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, primarily serving the automotive and construction industries. As a key player in the materials sector, its performance is closely tied to trends in infrastructure spending and manufacturing demand.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Cleveland-Cliffs reported an EPS of -$0.40, beating estimates by 9.5%. Despite the positive surprise, the stock fell 2.11% the following day, reflecting ongoing concerns about revenue and market conditions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Cleveland-Cliffs are mixed, with investors watching for signs of recovery in steel demand and pricing stability.

Bull Case

If the company can demonstrate improved production efficiency and better-than-expected demand, it could lead to a strong rebound in stock performance.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued losses and weak demand, it could further erode investor confidence and lead to a significant stock decline.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected steel production volume for the upcoming quarter?

This figure will be crucial in assessing the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

How does management view pricing trends in the steel market?

Management's insights on pricing will help investors gauge potential revenue growth and profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in steel demand, especially given recent infrastructure spending trends that could benefit Cleveland-Cliffs.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing in an 18.16% move, suggesting heightened expectations for volatility that may not materialize.

The company's recent EPS surprises indicate potential for better-than-expected performance, despite ongoing losses.

Key Risk

If production volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the company's recovery potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production efficiency and market demand for steel, which are critical for profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A production volume increase of 10% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A continued EPS loss greater than -$0.50 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.6% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

History suggests that if Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, the stock could rise by an average of 0.8%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience minimal movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 2.02%, reflecting ongoing concerns about profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production efficiency improvements.
2Insights into steel pricing trends and market demand.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth.
4Details on cost management strategies.
5Comments on the impact of infrastructure spending on demand.

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Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, primarily serving the automotive and construction industries....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue

Revenue figures will indicate how well the company is performing in a challenging steel market.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will show how effectively the company is managing costs amid fluctuating steel prices.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Cleveland-Cliffs are mixed, with investors watching for signs of recovery in steel demand and pricing stability.

Bull Case

If the company can demonstrate improved production efficiency and better-than-expected demand, it could lead to a strong rebound in stock performance.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued losses and weak demand, it could further erode investor confidence and lead to a significant stock decline.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected steel production volume for the upcoming quarter?

This figure will be crucial in assessing the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

How does management view pricing trends in the steel market?

Management's insights on pricing will help investors gauge potential revenue growth and profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in steel demand, especially given recent infrastructure spending trends that could benefit Cleveland-Cliffs.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing in an 18.16% move, suggesting heightened expectations for volatility that may not materialize.

The company's recent EPS surprises indicate potential for better-than-expected performance, despite ongoing losses.

Key Risk

If production volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the company's recovery potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production efficiency and market demand for steel, which are critical for profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A production volume increase of 10% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A continued EPS loss greater than -$0.50 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

History suggests that if Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, the stock could rise by an average of 0.8%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience minimal movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 2.02%, reflecting ongoing concerns about profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production efficiency improvements.
2Insights into steel pricing trends and market demand.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth.
4Details on cost management strategies.
5Comments on the impact of infrastructure spending on demand.