Equity Profile

CLF

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.

MaterialsSteel$5.5B

Jul20Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, primarily serving the automotive and construction industries....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and a negative EPS this quarter could indicate ongoing challenges.

$-0.20

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into demand for steel products and the overall health of the business.

$5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, primarily serving the automotive and construction industries. As a key player in the materials sector, the company's performance is closely tied to trends in manufacturing and infrastructure spending.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Cleveland-Cliffs reported an EPS of $-0.40, which was better than analysts' expectations of $-0.44, resulting in a slight stock decline of 2.11% the following day. The company continues to navigate a challenging market environment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Cleveland-Cliffs' upcoming earnings, expecting a slight improvement in EPS compared to the previous quarter. However, the company has faced significant headwinds in recent quarters.

Bull Case

If Cleveland-Cliffs can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate a rebound in demand for steel, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports worse-than-expected results, it could signal deeper issues in the steel market, leading to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.20

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and a negative EPS this quarter could indicate ongoing challenges.

Revenue

$5.2B

Revenue figures will provide insight into demand for steel products and the overall health of the business.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Cleveland-Cliffs achieve an EPS better than the consensus estimate of $-0.20?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improving profitability and a potential turnaround in the company's fortunes.

What revenue figures will the company report, and how do they compare to the consensus of $5.2B?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand in the steel market and the company's overall health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for Cleveland-Cliffs to recover, as recent improvements in steel demand could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent EPS surprises indicate a potential for positive momentum.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

The steel market may be stabilizing, which could benefit Cleveland-Cliffs more than anticipated.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS significantly better than $-0.20, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Cleveland-Cliffs can stabilize its earnings and revenue amid ongoing industry challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Cleveland-Cliffs reports an EPS of $-0.14 or better, along with revenue exceeding $5.3B.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.27 and revenue below $5.1B would confirm bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.8%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A disappointing report could lead to a decline of around 2.02%, indicating continued struggles in the market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on steel demand trends and how they are impacting pricing.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into customer orders and backlog levels.
4Any guidance on future quarters and expected market conditions.
5Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could drive revenue.

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Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, primarily serving the automotive and construction industries....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and a negative EPS this quarter could indicate ongoing challenges.

$-0.20

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into demand for steel products and the overall health of the business.

$5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Cleveland-Cliffs can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate a rebound in demand for steel, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports worse-than-expected results, it could signal deeper issues in the steel market, leading to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.20

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and a negative EPS this quarter could indicate ongoing challenges.

Revenue

$5.2B

Revenue figures will provide insight into demand for steel products and the overall health of the business.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Cleveland-Cliffs achieve an EPS better than the consensus estimate of $-0.20?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improving profitability and a potential turnaround in the company's fortunes.

What revenue figures will the company report, and how do they compare to the consensus of $5.2B?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand in the steel market and the company's overall health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for Cleveland-Cliffs to recover, as recent improvements in steel demand could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent EPS surprises indicate a potential for positive momentum.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

The steel market may be stabilizing, which could benefit Cleveland-Cliffs more than anticipated.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS significantly better than $-0.20, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Cleveland-Cliffs can stabilize its earnings and revenue amid ongoing industry challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Cleveland-Cliffs reports an EPS of $-0.14 or better, along with revenue exceeding $5.3B.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.27 and revenue below $5.1B would confirm bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.8%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A disappointing report could lead to a decline of around 2.02%, indicating continued struggles in the market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on steel demand trends and how they are impacting pricing.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into customer orders and backlog levels.
4Any guidance on future quarters and expected market conditions.
5Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could drive revenue.