Equity Profile

CLMT

Calumet, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$3.1B

May8Fri

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

Calumet, Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Down 3.61%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-3.64	$-0.63	-538.60%
Revenue	N/A	$953M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Calumet, Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Down 3.61%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-3.64	$-0.63	-538.60%
Revenue	N/A	$953M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

Calumet, Inc. reported a significant loss in EPS, far worse than analysts had expected, which likely contributed to the stock's decline of 3.61%. The lack of revenue figures and management commentary adds uncertainty about the company's current performance and future outlook. Investors may be concerned about the implications of such a large EPS miss.

Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability. This quarter, analysts expect a loss of $-0.63, which will be closely scrutinized for signs of improvement or deterioration.

$-0.63

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand. A consensus revenue of $953 million will help gauge operational efficiency.

$953M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, particularly as global energy demands evolve.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.37%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.19%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Calumet reported an EPS of $-0.43, which was better than the expected $-0.67, resulting in a positive surprise. However, the stock fell by 10.79% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Calumet to report a loss this quarter, with a focus on whether the company can narrow its losses compared to previous quarters. The market is particularly sensitive to any signs of revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Calumet can exceed the EPS estimate and show stronger revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss than expected or shows declining revenue, it may lead to further stock declines as investor confidence wanes.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.63

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability. This quarter, analysts expect a loss of $-0.63, which will be closely scrutinized for signs of improvement or deterioration.

Revenue

$953M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand. A consensus revenue of $953 million will help gauge operational efficiency.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Calumet's EPS improve from the expected $-0.63?

A smaller loss or a surprise profit could indicate operational improvements and boost investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth this quarter?

Revenue performance will be critical to assess the company's market position and ability to recover from previous losses.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Calumet's potential for a turnaround, as recent operational changes could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Calumet has a history of surprising the market, with a 63% EPS beat rate in the last eight quarters.

The implied move of 8.84% suggests traders are anticipating volatility, which could indicate underlying confidence in a potential positive surprise.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than $-0.63, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers on whether Calumet can stabilize its earnings and grow revenue amidst challenging market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS improvement to better than $-0.63, coupled with revenue exceeding $953 million, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A larger loss than $-0.63 and revenue below $851 million would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.84%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 8.84%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.8% while CLMT has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

51.3%

Calls (458K)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (56K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Calumet beats expectations, history suggests the stock may react positively, potentially leading to a 3.1% increase based on past performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to a muted response as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss its targets, history indicates a potential decline of around 3.3%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiency improvements.
2Details on revenue performance and market demand trends.
3Management's commentary on future guidance and market conditions.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
5Any developments in regulatory or environmental factors affecting operations.

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Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability. This quarter, analysts expect a loss of $-0.63, which will be closely scrutinized for signs of improvement or deterioration.

$-0.63

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand. A consensus revenue of $953 million will help gauge operational efficiency.

$953M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.37%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.19%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Calumet can exceed the EPS estimate and show stronger revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss than expected or shows declining revenue, it may lead to further stock declines as investor confidence wanes.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.63

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability. This quarter, analysts expect a loss of $-0.63, which will be closely scrutinized for signs of improvement or deterioration.

Revenue

$953M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand. A consensus revenue of $953 million will help gauge operational efficiency.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Calumet's EPS improve from the expected $-0.63?

A smaller loss or a surprise profit could indicate operational improvements and boost investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth this quarter?

Revenue performance will be critical to assess the company's market position and ability to recover from previous losses.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Calumet's potential for a turnaround, as recent operational changes could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Calumet has a history of surprising the market, with a 63% EPS beat rate in the last eight quarters.

The implied move of 8.84% suggests traders are anticipating volatility, which could indicate underlying confidence in a potential positive surprise.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than $-0.63, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers on whether Calumet can stabilize its earnings and grow revenue amidst challenging market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS improvement to better than $-0.63, coupled with revenue exceeding $953 million, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A larger loss than $-0.63 and revenue below $851 million would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.84%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 8.84%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.8% while CLMT has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

51.3%

Calls (458K)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (56K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Calumet beats expectations, history suggests the stock may react positively, potentially leading to a 3.1% increase based on past performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to a muted response as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss its targets, history indicates a potential decline of around 3.3%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiency improvements.
2Details on revenue performance and market demand trends.
3Management's commentary on future guidance and market conditions.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
5Any developments in regulatory or environmental factors affecting operations.