Energy·Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing·$2.7B
Calumet Inc (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, specifically in oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a significant role in the energy supply chain, which is crucial as global energy demands evolve.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well Calumet is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue Growth
Revenue growth is essential for understanding the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to industry trends.
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EPS Beat Streak
2Q
EPS Beat Rate
63%
Avg EPS Surprise
+39.80%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.96%
In Q4 2025, Calumet reported an EPS of -$0.43, which was better than the expected -$0.67, resulting in a positive surprise. However, the stock fell by 10.79% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.
Management Promises & Guidance
Overall expectations for Calumet's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. The market is likely watching for any signs of recovery in profitability and revenue growth.
Bull Case
If Calumet can show significant improvement in refining margins and a return to profitability, it could lead to a strong upward movement in the stock price.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company reports continued losses or weak revenue growth, investor confidence may wane, leading to a further decline in stock value.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
N/AEPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well Calumet is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth is essential for understanding the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to industry trends.
Refining Margins
N/ARefining margins indicate the profitability of Calumet's core operations, which is vital in the oil and gas industry.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What will the refining margins be for this quarter?
Refining margins are crucial for profitability in this sector, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.
Q2
Will Calumet return to profitability this quarter?
A return to profitability is essential for restoring investor confidence and could lead to a positive stock reaction.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Calumet to improve margins based on recent industry trends, which could lead to a surprise in profitability.
Supporting Evidence
The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that traders expect a larger reaction than historical averages suggest.
Calumet has a history of surprising the market with earnings, as seen in previous quarters.
Recent trends in oil prices may favor refining margins, which could positively impact earnings.
Key Risk
If refining margins exceed $10 per barrel, it could significantly alter the consensus view on profitability.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Calumet can stabilize its operations and return to profitability amidst fluctuating oil prices.
Bull Confirmed If
A return to positive EPS or refining margins exceeding $10 per barrel would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
Continued losses or refining margins below $5 per barrel would confirm the bear case.
Implied Move
±10.89%
Historical Avg
±6.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 11%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±10.9% while CLMT has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Calumet beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.3% on average.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
If Calumet misses expectations, history suggests an average decline of about 3.3%, which could further shake investor confidence.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
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