Equity Profile

CMI

Cummins Inc.

IndustrialsConstruction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment$89.2B

May5Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:30 AM EDT

Cummins Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 2.76%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$4.71	$5.62	-15.92%
Revenue	—	$8.3B	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Cummins Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 2.76%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$4.71	$5.62	-15.92%
Revenue	—	$8.3B	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Cummins Inc. reported earnings that fell short of expectations, particularly in EPS. Despite this miss, the stock rose by 2.76%, indicating that investors may have reacted positively to other aspects of the report or broader market conditions. The lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the company's performance and outlook.

Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a global leader in manufacturing engines and power generation equipment, primarily serving the construction and heavy transportation sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Cummins is managing costs and generating income.

$5.62

Revenue

Total revenue reflects overall business performance and demand for Cummins' products, which is critical for assessing growth.

$8.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a global leader in manufacturing engines and power generation equipment, primarily serving the construction and heavy transportation sectors. With a market cap of $91 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the industrial sector, which is influenced by trends in infrastructure spending and transportation demand.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Cummins reported an EPS of $4.27, falling short of the expected $5.20, leading to a significant drop in stock price. This miss raised concerns about the company's ability to meet market expectations.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Cummins' upcoming earnings report, expecting a rebound in EPS and revenue after a disappointing last quarter. The consensus estimates suggest a recovery in performance.

Bull Case

If Cummins can exceed EPS and revenue expectations, it may signal a strong recovery and renewed investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses estimates again, it could raise further doubts about its operational efficiency and market demand, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$5.62

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Cummins is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$8.3B

Total revenue reflects overall business performance and demand for Cummins' products, which is critical for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Cummins achieve an EPS of at least $5.62?

This figure is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to recover from previous misses and meet investor expectations.

What are the revenue figures for Q1-2026?

Revenue performance will indicate demand trends and overall business health, which are vital for future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a strong rebound in demand, especially given recent infrastructure spending trends.

Supporting Evidence

Cummins has historically shown resilience following earnings misses, often bouncing back strongly.

The current options pricing suggests a larger move than what has been realized in the past, indicating heightened volatility expectations.

Key Risk

If the company reports a significant increase in order backlog, it could shift the narrative towards a recovery.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of misses, and the market is keenly watching for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.62 or higher with revenue surpassing $8.3B would confirm strong operational recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.95 or revenue below $8.0B would confirm ongoing challenges in meeting market expectations.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.7%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating uncertainty about the results.

Options are pricing ±7.4% while CMI has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

38.1%

Calls (93K)P/C Ratio: 0.63Puts (58K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cummins beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.31%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

Should the company miss estimates again, history suggests a potential decline of around -0.32%, indicating deepening concerns.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-NJJosh GottheimerRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends in the construction and transportation sectors.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into order backlog and future guidance for the upcoming quarters.
4Discussion on any new product launches or technological advancements.
5Clarification on the impact of macroeconomic factors on business performance.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a global leader in manufacturing engines and power generation equipment, primarily serving the construction and heavy transportation sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Cummins is managing costs and generating income.

$5.62

Revenue

Total revenue reflects overall business performance and demand for Cummins' products, which is critical for assessing growth.

$8.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.45%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Cummins can exceed EPS and revenue expectations, it may signal a strong recovery and renewed investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses estimates again, it could raise further doubts about its operational efficiency and market demand, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$5.62

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Cummins is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$8.3B

Total revenue reflects overall business performance and demand for Cummins' products, which is critical for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Cummins achieve an EPS of at least $5.62?

This figure is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to recover from previous misses and meet investor expectations.

What are the revenue figures for Q1-2026?

Revenue performance will indicate demand trends and overall business health, which are vital for future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a strong rebound in demand, especially given recent infrastructure spending trends.

Supporting Evidence

Cummins has historically shown resilience following earnings misses, often bouncing back strongly.

The current options pricing suggests a larger move than what has been realized in the past, indicating heightened volatility expectations.

Key Risk

If the company reports a significant increase in order backlog, it could shift the narrative towards a recovery.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of misses, and the market is keenly watching for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.62 or higher with revenue surpassing $8.3B would confirm strong operational recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.95 or revenue below $8.0B would confirm ongoing challenges in meeting market expectations.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.7%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating uncertainty about the results.

Options are pricing ±7.4% while CMI has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

38.1%

Calls (93K)P/C Ratio: 0.63Puts (58K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cummins beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.31%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

Should the company miss estimates again, history suggests a potential decline of around -0.32%, indicating deepening concerns.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-NJJosh GottheimerRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends in the construction and transportation sectors.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into order backlog and future guidance for the upcoming quarters.
4Discussion on any new product launches or technological advancements.
5Clarification on the impact of macroeconomic factors on business performance.