Equity Profile

COP

ConocoPhillips

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production$149.6B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

ConocoPhillips (COP) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas exploration and production. With a market cap of $150 billion, it plays a crucial role in meeting global energy demands, especially as the world navigates the transition to more sustainable energy sources.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company has managed costs and revenue.

$1.75

Production Volume

Understanding production levels helps gauge operational efficiency and market supply dynamics.

1.5 million barrels per day

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, beating estimates by 3.07%. However, the stock fell by 1.93% the next day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing production efficiency.
Commitment to maintaining strong cash flow.
Plans to invest in renewable energy projects.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect ConocoPhillips to report solid earnings driven by stable oil prices and production levels. However, there are concerns about rising operational costs and market volatility.

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong production growth, it could signal robust operational health and attract more investor interest.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected production or rising costs, it may lead to a negative reaction from the market.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.75

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company has managed costs and revenue.

Production Volume

1.5 million barrels per day

Understanding production levels helps gauge operational efficiency and market supply dynamics.

Capital Expenditures

$1.2 billion

Capital spending reflects the company's commitment to growth and investment in future projects.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported production volume for Q2 2026?

Production levels are critical for assessing the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

How are rising operational costs impacting profit margins?

Understanding cost dynamics will help investors gauge the sustainability of earnings in a fluctuating market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of operational efficiencies that ConocoPhillips has implemented, which could lead to better-than-expected production results.

Supporting Evidence

Recent investments in technology may enhance production capacity beyond current estimates.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect surprises in either direction.

The company's historical ability to manage costs effectively may not be fully reflected in current forecasts.

Key Risk

If production volume comes in below 1.4 million barrels per day, it could undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production efficiency and cost management in a volatile energy market.

Bull Confirmed If

Production volume exceeding 1.5 million barrels per day would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

Any production below 1.4 million barrels per day could signal operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.5% while COP has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats EPS expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.62%.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings or production could lead to a decline of about 1.83%, as seen in past reactions.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on production volume and any changes in operational strategy.
2Insights into how rising costs are being managed.
3Updates on capital expenditures and future investment plans.
4Any commentary on market conditions and pricing outlook.
5Discussion on renewable energy initiatives and their impact on overall strategy.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company has managed costs and revenue.

$1.75

Production Volume

Understanding production levels helps gauge operational efficiency and market supply dynamics.

1.5 million barrels per day

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, beating estimates by 3.07%. However, the stock fell by 1.93% the next day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing production efficiency.
Commitment to maintaining strong cash flow.
Plans to invest in renewable energy projects.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect ConocoPhillips to report solid earnings driven by stable oil prices and production levels. However, there are concerns about rising operational costs and market volatility.

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong production growth, it could signal robust operational health and attract more investor interest.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected production or rising costs, it may lead to a negative reaction from the market.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.75

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company has managed costs and revenue.

Production Volume

1.5 million barrels per day

Understanding production levels helps gauge operational efficiency and market supply dynamics.

Capital Expenditures

$1.2 billion

Capital spending reflects the company's commitment to growth and investment in future projects.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported production volume for Q2 2026?

Production levels are critical for assessing the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

How are rising operational costs impacting profit margins?

Understanding cost dynamics will help investors gauge the sustainability of earnings in a fluctuating market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of operational efficiencies that ConocoPhillips has implemented, which could lead to better-than-expected production results.

Supporting Evidence

Recent investments in technology may enhance production capacity beyond current estimates.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect surprises in either direction.

The company's historical ability to manage costs effectively may not be fully reflected in current forecasts.

Key Risk

If production volume comes in below 1.4 million barrels per day, it could undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production efficiency and cost management in a volatile energy market.

Bull Confirmed If

Production volume exceeding 1.5 million barrels per day would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

Any production below 1.4 million barrels per day could signal operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.5% while COP has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats EPS expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.62%.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings or production could lead to a decline of about 1.83%, as seen in past reactions.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on production volume and any changes in operational strategy.
2Insights into how rising costs are being managed.
3Updates on capital expenditures and future investment plans.
4Any commentary on market conditions and pricing outlook.
5Discussion on renewable energy initiatives and their impact on overall strategy.