Equity Profile

COP

ConocoPhillips

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production$137.7B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

ConocoPhillips (COP) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas exploration and production. As one of the largest independent oil companies, its performance is closely tied to global energy demand and oil prices, making it a key company to watch in the energy market.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well ConocoPhillips managed costs and revenues in a fluctuating market.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for oil and gas.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, beating expectations by 3.07%. However, the stock declined by 1.93% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about ConocoPhillips' upcoming earnings, especially given the recent EPS beat. However, concerns about oil price volatility and production challenges could temper enthusiasm.

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips reports strong production numbers and maintains or increases its EPS, it could signal robust operational health and market resilience, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected production or a decline in EPS, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate market challenges, resulting in a negative stock response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the production levels be for Q2-2026?

Production levels will directly impact revenue and profitability, making it a key focus for investors.

How does management view the current oil price environment?

Management's perspective on oil prices will influence future guidance and investor sentiment regarding the company's strategy.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the impact of operational efficiencies and cost management on ConocoPhillips' profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, which could continue this quarter.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility that may not materialize.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 1.6 million barrels per day, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the company's resilience.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the debate centers around production efficiency and the company's ability to adapt to fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 1.6 million barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels falling below 1.4 million barrels per day would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.21%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move around the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty or anticipation.

Options are pricing a 9.46% move, while the stock has averaged only a 2.21% move historically, suggesting a rich setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.6% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.62%, confirming a strong operational outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

In a cautious scenario where results meet expectations but management provides conservative guidance, the stock may react neutrally.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.83%, raising concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on production levels and any changes in operational strategy.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and market conditions.
3Any commentary on cost management initiatives and their impact on margins.
4Insights into future capital expenditures and investment plans.
5Discussion of any regulatory or geopolitical factors affecting operations.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well ConocoPhillips managed costs and revenues in a fluctuating market.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for oil and gas.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, beating expectations by 3.07%. However, the stock declined by 1.93% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips reports strong production numbers and maintains or increases its EPS, it could signal robust operational health and market resilience, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected production or a decline in EPS, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate market challenges, resulting in a negative stock response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the production levels be for Q2-2026?

Production levels will directly impact revenue and profitability, making it a key focus for investors.

How does management view the current oil price environment?

Management's perspective on oil prices will influence future guidance and investor sentiment regarding the company's strategy.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the impact of operational efficiencies and cost management on ConocoPhillips' profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, which could continue this quarter.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility that may not materialize.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 1.6 million barrels per day, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the company's resilience.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the debate centers around production efficiency and the company's ability to adapt to fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 1.6 million barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels falling below 1.4 million barrels per day would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.21%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move around the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty or anticipation.

Options are pricing a 9.46% move, while the stock has averaged only a 2.21% move historically, suggesting a rich setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.62%, confirming a strong operational outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

In a cautious scenario where results meet expectations but management provides conservative guidance, the stock may react neutrally.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.83%, raising concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on production levels and any changes in operational strategy.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and market conditions.
3Any commentary on cost management initiatives and their impact on margins.
4Insights into future capital expenditures and investment plans.
5Discussion of any regulatory or geopolitical factors affecting operations.