Equity Profile

COP

ConocoPhillips

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production$145.6B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

ConocoPhillips (COP) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas exploration and production. With a market cap of $139 billion, the company is significant in the global energy landscape, especially as demand for oil and gas continues amidst the transition to renewable energy sources.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its operations and capture market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, beating expectations by 3.07%. However, the stock declined by 1.93% the next day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about ConocoPhillips' upcoming earnings report, especially given its recent EPS beat. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty.

Bull Case

If the company continues to beat EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust operational performance and market confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production levels are lower than expected or if there are signs of rising costs, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the production levels be for Q2-2026?

Production levels are crucial for understanding the company's ability to meet demand and manage costs effectively.

How is the company addressing rising operational costs?

With fluctuating oil prices, insights into cost management strategies will be critical for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate ConocoPhillips' ability to manage costs effectively, leading to stronger-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 9.46% move, but the stock has averaged only 2.21% over the last 8 quarters.

The company's historical EPS beat rate of 63% suggests a higher likelihood of positive surprises.

Key Risk

If production levels come in below 1.2 million barrels per day, it could undermine the bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ConocoPhillips can maintain production efficiency amidst rising costs and fluctuating demand.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 1.5 million barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels below 1.2 million barrels per day would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.5% while COP has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.62%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.83%, reflecting investor disappointment in production or cost management.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·3 sells

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$33,005.00–$145,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Insights into cost management strategies in the current market environment.
3Guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
4Commentary on the impact of oil price fluctuations on profitability.
5Any strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing market share.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its operations and capture market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.78, beating expectations by 3.07%. However, the stock declined by 1.93% the next day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about ConocoPhillips' upcoming earnings report, especially given its recent EPS beat. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty.

Bull Case

If the company continues to beat EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust operational performance and market confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production levels are lower than expected or if there are signs of rising costs, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the production levels be for Q2-2026?

Production levels are crucial for understanding the company's ability to meet demand and manage costs effectively.

How is the company addressing rising operational costs?

With fluctuating oil prices, insights into cost management strategies will be critical for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate ConocoPhillips' ability to manage costs effectively, leading to stronger-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 9.46% move, but the stock has averaged only 2.21% over the last 8 quarters.

The company's historical EPS beat rate of 63% suggests a higher likelihood of positive surprises.

Key Risk

If production levels come in below 1.2 million barrels per day, it could undermine the bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ConocoPhillips can maintain production efficiency amidst rising costs and fluctuating demand.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 1.5 million barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels below 1.2 million barrels per day would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.46%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.5% while COP has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (1.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.32Puts (256K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.62%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.83%, reflecting investor disappointment in production or cost management.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·3 sells

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$33,005.00–$145,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Insights into cost management strategies in the current market environment.
3Guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
4Commentary on the impact of oil price fluctuations on profitability.
5Any strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing market share.