Equity Profile

COST

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Consumer StaplesConsumer Staples Merchandise Retail$426.4B

May28Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ3-2026After Close4:15 PM EDT

Costco Misses on Revenue, Stock Down 0.85%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$4.93	$4.95	-0.31%
Revenue	N/A	$68.9B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Costco Misses on Revenue, Stock Down 0.85%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$4.93	$4.95	-0.31%
Revenue	N/A	$68.9B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Costco's earnings report showed a slight miss on EPS expectations, while revenue figures were not disclosed. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.85%. Investors may be concerned about the lack of revenue information and any potential implications for future performance.

Company Snapshot

Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a chain of membership-only warehouse clubs, providing a wide range of products at discounted prices. As a leader in the consumer staples sector, Costco's performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and inflationary pressures, making it a significant player in the retail industry.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

$4.95

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and is crucial for assessing growth.

$68.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.30%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Costco reported an EPS of $4.58, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.40% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to focus on expanding membership base.
Maintain competitive pricing to attract more customers.
Invest in supply chain improvements to enhance efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Costco to report solid earnings, driven by strong consumer demand and effective cost management. However, there are concerns about potential inflationary impacts on margins.

Bull Case

If Costco can exceed EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it may signal robust consumer spending and effective management strategies.

Bear Case

If the company misses earnings expectations or provides cautious guidance due to rising costs, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$4.95

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$68.9B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and is crucial for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed $4.95, and what factors contributed to this performance?

A strong EPS performance could indicate effective cost management and strong consumer demand, which are critical for investor confidence.

How is Costco managing inflationary pressures on its margins?

Understanding the company's strategy in handling rising costs will be crucial for assessing future profitability and stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Costco's ability to maintain margins despite inflation, as the company's strong membership model provides pricing power.

Supporting Evidence

Costco's membership model ensures a steady revenue stream, which can buffer against inflation.

The company's historical performance shows resilience in challenging economic conditions.

Recent consumer trends indicate a shift towards value shopping, which favors Costco's business model.

Key Risk

If inflation impacts margins more than expected, it could challenge the current optimistic outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Costco navigates inflation and maintains its competitive pricing strategy.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.10 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.80 would raise concerns about margin pressures and consumer spending.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.0%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3%, indicating uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.0% while COST has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

21.3%

Calls (2.4M)P/C Ratio: 1.63Puts (3.8M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Costco beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.09% on the next trading day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

If Costco misses earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 2.02%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on membership growth and retention rates.
2Details on cost management strategies in response to inflation.
3Insights into consumer spending trends observed during the quarter.
4Any commentary on supply chain improvements and their impact on operations.
5Guidance on future revenue expectations and potential challenges.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

$4.95

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and is crucial for assessing growth.

$68.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.30%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Costco reported an EPS of $4.58, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.40% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to focus on expanding membership base.
Maintain competitive pricing to attract more customers.
Invest in supply chain improvements to enhance efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Costco to report solid earnings, driven by strong consumer demand and effective cost management. However, there are concerns about potential inflationary impacts on margins.

Bull Case

If Costco can exceed EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it may signal robust consumer spending and effective management strategies.

Bear Case

If the company misses earnings expectations or provides cautious guidance due to rising costs, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$4.95

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$68.9B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and is crucial for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed $4.95, and what factors contributed to this performance?

A strong EPS performance could indicate effective cost management and strong consumer demand, which are critical for investor confidence.

How is Costco managing inflationary pressures on its margins?

Understanding the company's strategy in handling rising costs will be crucial for assessing future profitability and stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Costco's ability to maintain margins despite inflation, as the company's strong membership model provides pricing power.

Supporting Evidence

Costco's membership model ensures a steady revenue stream, which can buffer against inflation.

The company's historical performance shows resilience in challenging economic conditions.

Recent consumer trends indicate a shift towards value shopping, which favors Costco's business model.

Key Risk

If inflation impacts margins more than expected, it could challenge the current optimistic outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Costco navigates inflation and maintains its competitive pricing strategy.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.10 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.80 would raise concerns about margin pressures and consumer spending.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.0%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3%, indicating uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.0% while COST has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

21.3%

Calls (2.4M)P/C Ratio: 1.63Puts (3.8M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Costco beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.09% on the next trading day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

If Costco misses earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 2.02%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on membership growth and retention rates.
2Details on cost management strategies in response to inflation.
3Insights into consumer spending trends observed during the quarter.
4Any commentary on supply chain improvements and their impact on operations.
5Guidance on future revenue expectations and potential challenges.