Equity Profile

COST

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Consumer StaplesConsumer Staples Merchandise Retail$431.0B

Sep24Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is a leading retailer known for its membership-based warehouse club model, offering a wide range of products from groceries to electronics. As a major player in the consumer staples sector, Costco's performance is closely tied to consumer spending patterns and economic conditions, making it a key indicator for retail trends.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing and reflects consumer demand.

Expected to show solid growth, reflecting strong customer loyalty.

Membership Growth

An increase in membership can drive sales and profitability, as it indicates a growing customer base.

Expected to continue its upward trend, supporting revenue growth.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COST Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.30%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3 2026, Costco reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $4.93, slightly beating expectations. Despite the positive surprise, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding product offerings to enhance customer experience.
Commitment to maintaining low prices to attract more members.
Plans to invest in e-commerce capabilities to compete with online retailers.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Costco to report strong earnings driven by robust consumer demand and effective cost management. However, concerns about inflation and economic conditions could impact results.

Bull Case

If Costco demonstrates strong same-store sales growth and effective management of costs, it could lead to a significant positive reaction in the stock.

Bear Case

Conversely, if inflation pressures lead to squeezed margins or weaker-than-expected sales, the stock could see a notable decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

Expected to show solid growth, reflecting strong customer loyalty.

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing and reflects consumer demand.

Membership Growth

Expected to continue its upward trend, supporting revenue growth.

An increase in membership can drive sales and profitability, as it indicates a growing customer base.

Gross Margin

Expected to remain stable or improve slightly.

Gross margin is crucial for understanding profitability, especially in a competitive retail environment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected same-store sales growth rate for Q4-2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing consumer demand and overall business health.

How is Costco managing inflationary pressures on its gross margins?

Investors will closely watch for insights on cost management strategies that could impact profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Costco's ability to manage inflation and maintain customer loyalty, which could lead to stronger-than-expected sales.

Supporting Evidence

Costco has historically shown resilience in tough economic conditions, maintaining strong membership growth.

Options pricing suggests a larger potential move than what historical performance indicates, signaling market uncertainty.

Recent insider buying activity may indicate confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 7%, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around Costco's ability to sustain growth amid economic pressures and inflation.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 7% or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Gross margins declining below 13% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.27%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.27%, indicating some uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.3% while COST has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

24.4%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (2.9M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 28 (32%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 19 of 28 (68%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Costco beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.15% the next day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future growth prospects.

Miss

If Costco misses earnings expectations, the stock could drop by approximately 2.02%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·1 sell

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$17,003.00–$80,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on membership growth and retention rates.
2Details on how inflation is impacting pricing strategies.
3Insights into e-commerce sales performance and future plans.
4Any commentary on supply chain challenges and cost management.
5Expectations for the upcoming holiday season sales.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing and reflects consumer demand.

Expected to show solid growth, reflecting strong customer loyalty.

Membership Growth

An increase in membership can drive sales and profitability, as it indicates a growing customer base.

Expected to continue its upward trend, supporting revenue growth.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COST Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.30%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3 2026, Costco reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $4.93, slightly beating expectations. Despite the positive surprise, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding product offerings to enhance customer experience.
Commitment to maintaining low prices to attract more members.
Plans to invest in e-commerce capabilities to compete with online retailers.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Costco demonstrates strong same-store sales growth and effective management of costs, it could lead to a significant positive reaction in the stock.

Bear Case

Conversely, if inflation pressures lead to squeezed margins or weaker-than-expected sales, the stock could see a notable decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

Expected to show solid growth, reflecting strong customer loyalty.

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing and reflects consumer demand.

Membership Growth

Expected to continue its upward trend, supporting revenue growth.

An increase in membership can drive sales and profitability, as it indicates a growing customer base.

Gross Margin

Expected to remain stable or improve slightly.

Gross margin is crucial for understanding profitability, especially in a competitive retail environment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected same-store sales growth rate for Q4-2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing consumer demand and overall business health.

How is Costco managing inflationary pressures on its gross margins?

Investors will closely watch for insights on cost management strategies that could impact profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Costco's ability to manage inflation and maintain customer loyalty, which could lead to stronger-than-expected sales.

Supporting Evidence

Costco has historically shown resilience in tough economic conditions, maintaining strong membership growth.

Options pricing suggests a larger potential move than what historical performance indicates, signaling market uncertainty.

Recent insider buying activity may indicate confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 7%, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around Costco's ability to sustain growth amid economic pressures and inflation.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 7% or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Gross margins declining below 13% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.27%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.27%, indicating some uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.3% while COST has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

24.4%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (2.9M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 28 (32%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Costco beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.15% the next day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future growth prospects.

Miss

If Costco misses earnings expectations, the stock could drop by approximately 2.02%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·1 sell

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$17,003.00–$80,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on membership growth and retention rates.
2Details on how inflation is impacting pricing strategies.
3Insights into e-commerce sales performance and future plans.
4Any commentary on supply chain challenges and cost management.
5Expectations for the upcoming holiday season sales.