Equity Profile

COST

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Consumer StaplesConsumer Staples Merchandise Retail$410.9B

Sep24Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is a leading retailer known for its membership-based warehouse clubs. Operating in the consumer staples sector, Costco offers a wide range of products from groceries to electronics, making it a key player in consumer spending trends.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a crucial indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well Costco managed costs and sales during the quarter.

N/A

Membership Growth

Membership growth is vital for Costco's business model, as it drives sales and customer loyalty.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COST Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.30%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Costco reported an EPS of $4.93, slightly beating estimates. However, the stock reacted negatively the following day, indicating some investor caution.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining strong membership growth.
Commitment to managing costs effectively amidst inflation.
Plans to expand product offerings in key categories.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Costco's upcoming earnings, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns remain about inflation and consumer spending.

Bull Case

If Costco continues its trend of strong membership growth and manages to improve same-store sales, it could see significant upside in its stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if inflation pressures lead to weaker sales or if membership growth stalls, the stock could face downward pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the membership growth rate for this quarter?

Membership growth is critical for Costco's revenue and profitability, and any slowdown could raise concerns.

How did same-store sales perform compared to last year?

Same-store sales growth is a key indicator of customer demand and overall business health, which investors will closely monitor.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Costco's ability to attract new members despite economic pressures, as its value proposition remains strong.

Supporting Evidence

Costco's historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests resilience in performance.

The company's focus on cost management may mitigate inflation impacts more effectively than expected.

Recent consumer trends indicate a shift towards value-oriented shopping, which could benefit Costco.

Key Risk

If membership growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Costco navigates inflation and maintains customer loyalty.

Bull Confirmed If

Membership growth of 10% or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth below 3% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.27%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.27%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.3% while COST has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

24.4%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (2.9M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Costco beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.15% on the next trading day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest the details.

Miss

Should Costco miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.02%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on membership growth and retention rates.
2Details on same-store sales performance and any regional variations.
3Management's commentary on cost management strategies amidst inflation.
4Insights into product categories driving sales growth.
5Any changes in pricing strategy or promotional activities.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a crucial indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well Costco managed costs and sales during the quarter.

N/A

Membership Growth

Membership growth is vital for Costco's business model, as it drives sales and customer loyalty.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COST Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.30%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Costco reported an EPS of $4.93, slightly beating estimates. However, the stock reacted negatively the following day, indicating some investor caution.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining strong membership growth.
Commitment to managing costs effectively amidst inflation.
Plans to expand product offerings in key categories.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Costco's upcoming earnings, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns remain about inflation and consumer spending.

Bull Case

If Costco continues its trend of strong membership growth and manages to improve same-store sales, it could see significant upside in its stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if inflation pressures lead to weaker sales or if membership growth stalls, the stock could face downward pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the membership growth rate for this quarter?

Membership growth is critical for Costco's revenue and profitability, and any slowdown could raise concerns.

How did same-store sales perform compared to last year?

Same-store sales growth is a key indicator of customer demand and overall business health, which investors will closely monitor.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Costco's ability to attract new members despite economic pressures, as its value proposition remains strong.

Supporting Evidence

Costco's historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests resilience in performance.

The company's focus on cost management may mitigate inflation impacts more effectively than expected.

Recent consumer trends indicate a shift towards value-oriented shopping, which could benefit Costco.

Key Risk

If membership growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Costco navigates inflation and maintains customer loyalty.

Bull Confirmed If

Membership growth of 10% or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth below 3% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.27%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.27%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.3% while COST has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

24.4%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (2.9M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Costco beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.15% on the next trading day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest the details.

Miss

Should Costco miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.02%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on membership growth and retention rates.
2Details on same-store sales performance and any regional variations.
3Management's commentary on cost management strategies amidst inflation.
4Insights into product categories driving sales growth.
5Any changes in pricing strategy or promotional activities.