Equity Profile

COST

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Consumer StaplesConsumer Staples Merchandise Retail$426.4B

Sep24Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates a chain of membership-only warehouse clubs, offering a wide range of products from groceries to electronics. As a major player in the consumer staples sector, Costco benefits from steady consumer demand and a loyal customer base, making it a key indicator of retail health.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing, which is crucial for understanding customer demand and loyalty.

5.5%

Membership Growth

An increase in membership can drive sales and profitability, reflecting customer satisfaction and brand strength.

1.5 million new members

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COST Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.30%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3 2026, Costco reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $4.93, slightly exceeding expectations. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding product offerings to attract more customers.
Commitment to maintaining competitive pricing to drive sales.
Plans to enhance online shopping experience.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Costco to continue its trend of steady growth, driven by strong membership and sales performance. However, concerns about inflation and consumer spending may temper expectations.

Bull Case

If Costco can report strong same-store sales and membership growth, it could signal robust consumer demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports weaker-than-expected sales or membership growth, it may raise concerns about consumer spending and competition, potentially leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

5.5%

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing, which is crucial for understanding customer demand and loyalty.

Membership Growth

1.5 million new members

An increase in membership can drive sales and profitability, reflecting customer satisfaction and brand strength.

Gross Margin

11.2%

Gross margin is vital for assessing profitability, especially in a low-margin retail environment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the reported same-store sales growth for Q4-2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing how well Costco is retaining and attracting customers in a competitive retail environment.

How many new memberships were added in the last quarter?

Membership growth is a key driver of Costco's revenue and profitability, and any significant changes could impact future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

Despite potential concerns about inflation, Costco's unique membership model and strong brand loyalty may allow it to outperform expectations this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows Costco has consistently beaten EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating investor uncertainty that could swing positively.

Recent trends in consumer spending show resilience in essential goods, which benefits Costco.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth comes in below 4%, it could challenge the narrative of strong consumer demand.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Costco's ability to maintain growth in a challenging economic environment, with inflation and changing consumer habits at play.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 6% or better would confirm strong consumer demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth below 4% would raise concerns about consumer spending and competitive pressures.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.27%

Historical Avg

±1.06%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.27% following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing a larger move compared to the stock's historical average, suggesting heightened expectations for volatility.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

24.4%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (2.9M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Costco beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.15% on average, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 2.02%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on same-store sales growth and how it compares to previous quarters.
2Insights into membership growth and retention strategies.
3Any commentary on inflation's impact on pricing and consumer behavior.
4Updates on online sales performance and its contribution to overall revenue.
5Management's outlook for the upcoming holiday season and its expected impact on sales.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing, which is crucial for understanding customer demand and loyalty.

5.5%

Membership Growth

An increase in membership can drive sales and profitability, reflecting customer satisfaction and brand strength.

1.5 million new members

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COST Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.30%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding product offerings to attract more customers.
Commitment to maintaining competitive pricing to drive sales.
Plans to enhance online shopping experience.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Costco can report strong same-store sales and membership growth, it could signal robust consumer demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports weaker-than-expected sales or membership growth, it may raise concerns about consumer spending and competition, potentially leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

5.5%

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing, which is crucial for understanding customer demand and loyalty.

Membership Growth

1.5 million new members

An increase in membership can drive sales and profitability, reflecting customer satisfaction and brand strength.

Gross Margin

11.2%

Gross margin is vital for assessing profitability, especially in a low-margin retail environment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the reported same-store sales growth for Q4-2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing how well Costco is retaining and attracting customers in a competitive retail environment.

How many new memberships were added in the last quarter?

Membership growth is a key driver of Costco's revenue and profitability, and any significant changes could impact future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

Despite potential concerns about inflation, Costco's unique membership model and strong brand loyalty may allow it to outperform expectations this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows Costco has consistently beaten EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating investor uncertainty that could swing positively.

Recent trends in consumer spending show resilience in essential goods, which benefits Costco.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth comes in below 4%, it could challenge the narrative of strong consumer demand.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Costco's ability to maintain growth in a challenging economic environment, with inflation and changing consumer habits at play.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 6% or better would confirm strong consumer demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth below 4% would raise concerns about consumer spending and competitive pressures.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.27%

Historical Avg

±1.06%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.27% following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing a larger move compared to the stock's historical average, suggesting heightened expectations for volatility.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

24.4%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (2.9M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Costco beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.15% on average, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 2.02%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on same-store sales growth and how it compares to previous quarters.
2Insights into membership growth and retention strategies.
3Any commentary on inflation's impact on pricing and consumer behavior.
4Updates on online sales performance and its contribution to overall revenue.
5Management's outlook for the upcoming holiday season and its expected impact on sales.