Equity Profile

CRC

California Resources Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production$4.7B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

California Resources Corporation (CRC) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas exploration and production in California. With a market cap of $5 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the state's energy landscape, especially as discussions around energy independence and sustainability continue to grow.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Not available

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's operational performance and market demand for its products.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CRC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.48%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, CRC reported an EPS of $0.88, exceeding expectations by 5.77%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.39% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for CRC's upcoming earnings are uncertain due to a lack of analyst estimates and management guidance. Investors will be keenly watching for any surprises.

Bull Case

If CRC can continue its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports disappointing production levels, it could lead to a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

What are the production levels for the quarter?

Production levels directly affect revenue and profitability, making it a key focus for investors looking to understand operational efficiency.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating CRC's ability to maintain production levels despite market challenges, which could lead to a positive surprise.

Supporting Evidence

Historical performance shows CRC has a 63% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating market anticipation of volatility.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently uncertain about CRC's ability to maintain profitability and production levels, making these thresholds critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would indicate potential operational challenges and could lead to a negative market reaction.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.8%

Historical Avg

±3.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 3.8%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.8% while CRC has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

49.4%

Calls (600)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (400)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.6% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CRC beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.06%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.68%, reflecting investor disappointment in operational performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Insights into cost management and pricing strategies in the current market.
3Commentary on future guidance and market outlook.
4Details on any new projects or investments in the pipeline.
5Responses to questions about regulatory impacts on operations.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Not available

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's operational performance and market demand for its products.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CRC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.48%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, CRC reported an EPS of $0.88, exceeding expectations by 5.77%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.39% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for CRC's upcoming earnings are uncertain due to a lack of analyst estimates and management guidance. Investors will be keenly watching for any surprises.

Bull Case

If CRC can continue its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports disappointing production levels, it could lead to a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

What are the production levels for the quarter?

Production levels directly affect revenue and profitability, making it a key focus for investors looking to understand operational efficiency.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating CRC's ability to maintain production levels despite market challenges, which could lead to a positive surprise.

Supporting Evidence

Historical performance shows CRC has a 63% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating market anticipation of volatility.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently uncertain about CRC's ability to maintain profitability and production levels, making these thresholds critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would indicate potential operational challenges and could lead to a negative market reaction.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.8%

Historical Avg

±3.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 3.8%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.8% while CRC has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

49.4%

Calls (600)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (400)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CRC beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.06%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.68%, reflecting investor disappointment in operational performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Insights into cost management and pricing strategies in the current market.
3Commentary on future guidance and market outlook.
4Details on any new projects or investments in the pipeline.
5Responses to questions about regulatory impacts on operations.