Equity Profile

CRC

California Resources Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production$5.2B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

California Resources Corporation (CRC) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas exploration and production. With a market cap of $5 billion, CRC plays a significant role in California's energy landscape, especially as the state navigates its energy transition and regulatory environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well CRC has managed costs and revenues in the current quarter.

Expected to be around $0.88.

Production Levels

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making it crucial to understand how CRC is performing in a competitive market.

Not available.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CRC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.48%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, CRC reported an EPS of $0.88, surpassing expectations by 5.77%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.39% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management emphasized a focus on cost management and operational efficiency.
They committed to maintaining production levels amid fluctuating oil prices.
They highlighted plans to invest in sustainable practices.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect CRC to continue its trend of beating EPS estimates, driven by stable oil prices and efficient operations.

Bull Case

If CRC can report higher production levels and maintain strong oil prices, it could lead to significant revenue growth and further stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if oil prices decline or production levels fall short, it could lead to disappointing earnings and a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $0.88.

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well CRC has managed costs and revenues in the current quarter.

Production Levels

Not available.

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making it crucial to understand how CRC is performing in a competitive market.

Oil Prices

Not available.

Oil prices significantly influence revenue for oil and gas companies, and any fluctuations can affect CRC's earnings.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the specific production levels for Q2 2026?

Production levels will directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical figure for investors.

How does management plan to navigate potential fluctuations in oil prices?

Understanding management's strategy regarding oil price volatility is essential for assessing future earnings stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of CRC's cost management initiatives, which could lead to better-than-expected margins despite volatile oil prices.

Supporting Evidence

Management has previously demonstrated strong cost control, which could offset any price declines.

The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, suggesting a lack of confidence in a significant earnings surprise.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production levels and oil price stability, which are crucial for CRC's profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 100,000 barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If production levels fall below 90,000 barrels per day, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.8%

Historical Avg

±3.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.8%, indicating some uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.8% while CRC has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

49.4%

Calls (600)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (400)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CRC beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.06%, confirming the company's operational strength.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report could lead to muted stock movement as investors await clearer guidance from management.

Miss

If CRC misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.68%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's commentary on oil price forecasts and their impact on future earnings.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into any new projects or investments in sustainable practices.
5Responses to questions about regulatory changes affecting the energy sector.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well CRC has managed costs and revenues in the current quarter.

Expected to be around $0.88.

Production Levels

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making it crucial to understand how CRC is performing in a competitive market.

Not available.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CRC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.48%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, CRC reported an EPS of $0.88, surpassing expectations by 5.77%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.39% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management emphasized a focus on cost management and operational efficiency.
They committed to maintaining production levels amid fluctuating oil prices.
They highlighted plans to invest in sustainable practices.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect CRC to continue its trend of beating EPS estimates, driven by stable oil prices and efficient operations.

Bull Case

If CRC can report higher production levels and maintain strong oil prices, it could lead to significant revenue growth and further stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if oil prices decline or production levels fall short, it could lead to disappointing earnings and a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $0.88.

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well CRC has managed costs and revenues in the current quarter.

Production Levels

Not available.

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making it crucial to understand how CRC is performing in a competitive market.

Oil Prices

Not available.

Oil prices significantly influence revenue for oil and gas companies, and any fluctuations can affect CRC's earnings.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the specific production levels for Q2 2026?

Production levels will directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical figure for investors.

How does management plan to navigate potential fluctuations in oil prices?

Understanding management's strategy regarding oil price volatility is essential for assessing future earnings stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of CRC's cost management initiatives, which could lead to better-than-expected margins despite volatile oil prices.

Supporting Evidence

Management has previously demonstrated strong cost control, which could offset any price declines.

The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, suggesting a lack of confidence in a significant earnings surprise.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production levels and oil price stability, which are crucial for CRC's profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 100,000 barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If production levels fall below 90,000 barrels per day, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.8%

Historical Avg

±3.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.8%, indicating some uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.8% while CRC has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

49.4%

Calls (600)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (400)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CRC beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.06%, confirming the company's operational strength.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report could lead to muted stock movement as investors await clearer guidance from management.

Miss

If CRC misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.68%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's commentary on oil price forecasts and their impact on future earnings.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into any new projects or investments in sustainable practices.
5Responses to questions about regulatory changes affecting the energy sector.