Equity Profile

CRESY

Cresud Sociedad AnÃ³nima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria

Consumer StaplesAgricultural Products & Services$844.7M

Sep8Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2009After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Cresud Sociedad Anónima is a key player in the agricultural products and services sector, focusing on farming and real estate activities. With a market cap of $1 billion, the company plays a significant role in the consumer staples market, particularly in the context of global food supply and agricultural trends.

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing how well Cresud is expanding its business and capturing market share in the agricultural sector.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CRESY Q2-2009 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 3Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

+0.00%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.09%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Cresud reported an EPS of $0.00, which was in line with expectations, but the stock saw a decline of 8.91% the following day. The company did not provide specific revenue figures, leaving investors without clear guidance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Cresud are uncertain due to a lack of analyst estimates and management guidance. Investors are keenly watching for any signs of recovery or growth in the agricultural sector.

Bull Case

If Cresud can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it could signal a turnaround in performance, attracting more investor interest.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show any growth or continues to report flat earnings, it may lead to further declines in stock price and investor confidence.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for this quarter?

Given the previous quarters' flat EPS, any positive figure could signal a recovery, while another $0.00 could raise concerns.

How has revenue changed compared to last year?

Understanding revenue trends is essential for assessing the company's growth potential and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Cresud's potential for recovery, especially if it can leverage favorable agricultural conditions.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting traders expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Insider buying activity indicates confidence from management, which could signal a turnaround not reflected in current market sentiment.

Key Risk

If Cresud reports an EPS above $0.00, it could challenge the prevailing negative sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether Cresud can turn around its performance in a challenging agricultural market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS greater than $0.00 would confirm the bull case and suggest a positive shift in performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.00 or lower would reinforce the bear case and indicate ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±43.66%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±43.7% while CRESY has averaged ±3.8% over the last 3 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

35.2%

Calls (24K)P/C Ratio: 3.81Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 18 of 27 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$200,170.10

17,833 sh

1 insider

Sold

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Net

$200,170.10

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cresud beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential average move of +4.68%, confirming a bullish outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of -8.91% following disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on revenue growth compared to the previous year.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operating margins.
3Insights into market conditions affecting agricultural products.
4Details on any new initiatives or strategies being implemented.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding future growth prospects.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing how well Cresud is expanding its business and capturing market share in the agricultural sector.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CRESY Q2-2009 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 3Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

+0.00%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.09%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Cresud are uncertain due to a lack of analyst estimates and management guidance. Investors are keenly watching for any signs of recovery or growth in the agricultural sector.

Bull Case

If Cresud can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it could signal a turnaround in performance, attracting more investor interest.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show any growth or continues to report flat earnings, it may lead to further declines in stock price and investor confidence.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for this quarter?

Given the previous quarters' flat EPS, any positive figure could signal a recovery, while another $0.00 could raise concerns.

How has revenue changed compared to last year?

Understanding revenue trends is essential for assessing the company's growth potential and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Cresud's potential for recovery, especially if it can leverage favorable agricultural conditions.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting traders expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Insider buying activity indicates confidence from management, which could signal a turnaround not reflected in current market sentiment.

Key Risk

If Cresud reports an EPS above $0.00, it could challenge the prevailing negative sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether Cresud can turn around its performance in a challenging agricultural market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS greater than $0.00 would confirm the bull case and suggest a positive shift in performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.00 or lower would reinforce the bear case and indicate ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±43.66%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±43.7% while CRESY has averaged ±3.8% over the last 3 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

35.2%

Calls (24K)P/C Ratio: 3.81Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$200,170.10

17,833 sh

1 insider

Sold

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Net

$200,170.10

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cresud beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential average move of +4.68%, confirming a bullish outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of -8.91% following disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on revenue growth compared to the previous year.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operating margins.
3Insights into market conditions affecting agricultural products.
4Details on any new initiatives or strategies being implemented.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding future growth prospects.