Equity Profile

DAWN

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology

May5Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with cancer....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

-$0.17

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$54M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DAWN Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with cancer. Operating in the health care sector, the company aims to address unmet medical needs through its targeted treatments, which is particularly relevant as the demand for effective cancer therapies continues to grow.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-8.39%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Day One reported an EPS of -$1.04, significantly missing analyst expectations of -$0.17. The stock experienced a modest increase of 2.74% the following day despite the disappointing earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Day One to report a loss of $0.17 per share on revenues of $54 million for Q1-2026. The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, which could create a positive sentiment if it occurs again.

Bull Case

If Day One can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal improved market acceptance of its therapies, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about its product pipeline and overall viability, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-$0.17

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$54M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of -$0.17?

A beat on EPS could signal operational improvements and stronger demand for its therapies, which would be crucial for investor confidence.

What are the revenue figures compared to the expected $54 million?

Revenue performance will indicate market acceptance of Day One's products and could impact future growth projections.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Day One to achieve a significant turnaround in its financial performance, given its history of beating EPS estimates.

Supporting Evidence

Day One has a 75% EPS beat rate in recent quarters, suggesting a stronger operational performance than expected.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors may be anticipating a more significant change in sentiment.

The company has shown resilience in its revenue growth despite recent misses, which could indicate a rebound.

Key Risk

If the company reports better-than-expected revenue growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for Day One to turn around its recent performance, and these thresholds will be critical in determining the sentiment post-earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS better than -$0.17 and revenue exceeding $54 million would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -$0.28 or revenue below $48 million would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.3%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move of around 12.3%, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±12.3% while DAWN has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

2.5%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Day One beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a positive outlook for the company's growth.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline in stock price, reflecting ongoing concerns about its product pipeline.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the progress of ongoing clinical trials.
2Any commentary on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance product development.
3Insights into market demand for their therapies and any feedback from healthcare providers.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and profitability.
5Details on cost management strategies and their impact on future earnings.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with cancer....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

-$0.17

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$54M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DAWN Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-8.39%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Day One can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal improved market acceptance of its therapies, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about its product pipeline and overall viability, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-$0.17

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$54M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of -$0.17?

A beat on EPS could signal operational improvements and stronger demand for its therapies, which would be crucial for investor confidence.

What are the revenue figures compared to the expected $54 million?

Revenue performance will indicate market acceptance of Day One's products and could impact future growth projections.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Day One to achieve a significant turnaround in its financial performance, given its history of beating EPS estimates.

Supporting Evidence

Day One has a 75% EPS beat rate in recent quarters, suggesting a stronger operational performance than expected.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors may be anticipating a more significant change in sentiment.

The company has shown resilience in its revenue growth despite recent misses, which could indicate a rebound.

Key Risk

If the company reports better-than-expected revenue growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for Day One to turn around its recent performance, and these thresholds will be critical in determining the sentiment post-earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS better than -$0.17 and revenue exceeding $54 million would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -$0.28 or revenue below $48 million would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.3%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move of around 12.3%, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±12.3% while DAWN has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

2.5%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Day One beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a positive outlook for the company's growth.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline in stock price, reflecting ongoing concerns about its product pipeline.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the progress of ongoing clinical trials.
2Any commentary on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance product development.
3Insights into market demand for their therapies and any feedback from healthcare providers.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and profitability.
5Details on cost management strategies and their impact on future earnings.