Equity Profile

DE

Deere & Company

IndustrialsAgricultural & Farm Machinery$157.5B

Aug20Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Deere & Company (DE) is a leading manufacturer of agricultural and farm machinery, known for its iconic green and yellow equipment. As a key player in the industrial sector, Deere's performance can be influenced by trends in agriculture, commodity prices, and global supply chain dynamics.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects demand for Deere's products and can signal overall health in the agricultural sector.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DE Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Deere reported an EPS of $6.55, exceeding expectations by 12.74%. However, the stock fell 5.19% the following day, indicating some investor disappointment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Deere's upcoming earnings, especially after a strong performance last quarter. However, the lack of analyst estimates raises uncertainty about what to expect.

Bull Case

If Deere continues to outperform expectations, particularly in EPS and revenue, it could signal strong demand in the agricultural sector, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, as seen in previous quarters.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $6.55?

Given the strong surprise last quarter, investors will be keen to see if this trend continues or if there is a decline.

How is demand for agricultural machinery trending in light of current commodity prices?

Understanding demand trends will provide insight into future revenue growth and overall market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Deere's ability to maintain strong earnings growth due to recent agricultural trends that suggest increased demand for machinery.

Supporting Evidence

Deere has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent commodity price trends suggest potential for increased agricultural spending.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $6.00, it could significantly undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Deere can sustain its recent earnings momentum amidst fluctuating agricultural demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $7.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $6.00 would confirm the bear case, suggesting declining profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.86%

Historical Avg

±6.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.9% while DE has averaged ±6.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.1%

Calls (239K)P/C Ratio: 0.70Puts (125K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +2.0% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Deere beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.72%, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see minimal movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -6.22%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$16,002.00–$65,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKMarkwayne MullinSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends for agricultural machinery in light of current commodity prices.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.
4Any commentary on international market performance and growth opportunities.
5Management's outlook on future revenue growth and guidance for the next quarter.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects demand for Deere's products and can signal overall health in the agricultural sector.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DE Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Deere reported an EPS of $6.55, exceeding expectations by 12.74%. However, the stock fell 5.19% the following day, indicating some investor disappointment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Deere continues to outperform expectations, particularly in EPS and revenue, it could signal strong demand in the agricultural sector, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, as seen in previous quarters.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $6.55?

Given the strong surprise last quarter, investors will be keen to see if this trend continues or if there is a decline.

How is demand for agricultural machinery trending in light of current commodity prices?

Understanding demand trends will provide insight into future revenue growth and overall market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Deere's ability to maintain strong earnings growth due to recent agricultural trends that suggest increased demand for machinery.

Supporting Evidence

Deere has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent commodity price trends suggest potential for increased agricultural spending.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $6.00, it could significantly undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Deere can sustain its recent earnings momentum amidst fluctuating agricultural demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $7.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $6.00 would confirm the bear case, suggesting declining profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.86%

Historical Avg

±6.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.9% while DE has averaged ±6.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.1%

Calls (239K)P/C Ratio: 0.70Puts (125K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Deere beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.72%, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see minimal movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -6.22%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$16,002.00–$65,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKMarkwayne MullinSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends for agricultural machinery in light of current commodity prices.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.
4Any commentary on international market performance and growth opportunities.
5Management's outlook on future revenue growth and guidance for the next quarter.