Equity Profile

DINO

HF Sinclair Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$16.3B

May1Fri

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:30 AM EDT

HF Sinclair Corporation Beats on EPS, Stock Up 2.92%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$3.56	$-0.05	+2555.17%
Revenue	N/A	$6.9B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

HF Sinclair Corporation Beats on EPS, Stock Up 2.92%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$3.56	$-0.05	+2555.17%
Revenue	N/A	$6.9B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

HF Sinclair Corporation reported a significantly better-than-expected EPS, which drove the stock up by 2.92%. The large surprise in EPS indicates strong performance relative to analysts' expectations. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall financial health.

Company Snapshot

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a significant player in the energy market, its performance can be influenced by fluctuating oil prices and changes in consumer demand for fuel and energy products.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

-$0.05

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$6.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, HF Sinclair reported an EPS of $1.20, significantly exceeding expectations. Despite the strong earnings surprise, the stock fell by 10.86% the following day, indicating market volatility.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about HF Sinclair's upcoming earnings, with expectations of a slight loss in EPS but solid revenue figures. The market is closely watching how the company navigates current energy market challenges.

Bull Case

If the company can exceed the EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may signal effective cost management and increased market share.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger-than-expected loss or disappointing revenue, it could raise concerns about its operational efficiency and market position.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-$0.05

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

Revenue

$6.9B

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of -$0.05?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate strong cost management and operational efficiency, which would be crucial for investor confidence.

How does the revenue of $6.9B compare to previous quarters?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge market demand and the company's ability to capitalize on pricing power in the energy sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating HF Sinclair's ability to manage costs effectively, especially given recent volatility in oil prices.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders expect significant news or changes.

The recent drop in stock price following strong earnings may reflect market overreaction rather than a fundamental issue.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than -$0.05, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether HF Sinclair can maintain profitability amid fluctuating oil prices and operational challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.03 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$0.19 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.78%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.8% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

36.9%

Calls (576K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (30K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +1.75%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the energy market.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a downside move of around -1.14%, indicating investor concerns about the company's future prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies in response to fluctuating oil prices.
2Insights into market demand for refined products and how it affects revenue.
3Management's outlook on future earnings and operational efficiency.
4Comments on the competitive landscape in the oil and gas refining sector.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

-$0.05

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$6.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company can exceed the EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may signal effective cost management and increased market share.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger-than-expected loss or disappointing revenue, it could raise concerns about its operational efficiency and market position.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-$0.05

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

Revenue

$6.9B

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of -$0.05?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate strong cost management and operational efficiency, which would be crucial for investor confidence.

How does the revenue of $6.9B compare to previous quarters?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge market demand and the company's ability to capitalize on pricing power in the energy sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating HF Sinclair's ability to manage costs effectively, especially given recent volatility in oil prices.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders expect significant news or changes.

The recent drop in stock price following strong earnings may reflect market overreaction rather than a fundamental issue.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than -$0.05, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether HF Sinclair can maintain profitability amid fluctuating oil prices and operational challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.03 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$0.19 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.78%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.8% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

36.9%

Calls (576K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (30K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +1.75%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the energy market.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a downside move of around -1.14%, indicating investor concerns about the company's future prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies in response to fluctuating oil prices.
2Insights into market demand for refined products and how it affects revenue.
3Management's outlook on future earnings and operational efficiency.
4Comments on the competitive landscape in the oil and gas refining sector.