Equity Profile

DK

Delek US Holdings, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$3.6B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Refining Margins

Refining margins are crucial as they directly impact profitability. Higher margins typically indicate better performance.

N/A

Production Volume

Increased production volume can signal operational efficiency and market demand, which are vital for revenue growth.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DK Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a key player in this industry, the company's performance can be influenced by fluctuating oil prices, refining margins, and overall energy demand.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+457.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.12%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Delek reported an earnings surprise of 105.26%, with an EPS of $0.08 compared to an expected loss. The stock reacted positively, gaining 13.72% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Delek's upcoming earnings, given its strong historical performance and recent surprises. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Delek continues its trend of beating earnings expectations, it could see significant stock price appreciation, especially if refining margins improve.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to maintain its previous performance levels or if operating costs rise unexpectedly, it could lead to a disappointing earnings report.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the expected refining margins for the upcoming quarter?

Refining margins are a key indicator of profitability and will heavily influence market expectations for the quarter.

How has production volume changed compared to the previous quarter?

Changes in production volume can indicate operational efficiency and market demand, which are critical for revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate Delek's ability to leverage refining margins effectively, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Delek has consistently beaten earnings estimates in recent quarters, suggesting operational strength.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could significantly alter market perceptions and expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to maintain strong refining margins in a fluctuating oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

Refining margins exceeding $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Refining margins falling below $5 per barrel would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±23.24%

Historical Avg

±6.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±23.2% while DK has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

69.4%

Calls (16K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.6% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Delek beats earnings expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 2.42%, confirming investor confidence.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions as investors digest management's commentary on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.07%, which could raise concerns about operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on refining margins and how they compare to industry averages.
2Any updates on production volume and operational efficiency.
3Management's outlook on future market conditions and pricing.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
5Responses to any recent regulatory changes affecting the industry.

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Company Snapshot

Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Refining Margins

Refining margins are crucial as they directly impact profitability. Higher margins typically indicate better performance.

N/A

Production Volume

Increased production volume can signal operational efficiency and market demand, which are vital for revenue growth.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DK Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+457.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.12%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Delek reported an earnings surprise of 105.26%, with an EPS of $0.08 compared to an expected loss. The stock reacted positively, gaining 13.72% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Delek's upcoming earnings, given its strong historical performance and recent surprises. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Delek continues its trend of beating earnings expectations, it could see significant stock price appreciation, especially if refining margins improve.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to maintain its previous performance levels or if operating costs rise unexpectedly, it could lead to a disappointing earnings report.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the expected refining margins for the upcoming quarter?

Refining margins are a key indicator of profitability and will heavily influence market expectations for the quarter.

How has production volume changed compared to the previous quarter?

Changes in production volume can indicate operational efficiency and market demand, which are critical for revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate Delek's ability to leverage refining margins effectively, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Delek has consistently beaten earnings estimates in recent quarters, suggesting operational strength.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could significantly alter market perceptions and expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to maintain strong refining margins in a fluctuating oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

Refining margins exceeding $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Refining margins falling below $5 per barrel would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±23.24%

Historical Avg

±6.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±23.2% while DK has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

69.4%

Calls (16K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Delek beats earnings expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 2.42%, confirming investor confidence.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions as investors digest management's commentary on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.07%, which could raise concerns about operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on refining margins and how they compare to industry averages.
2Any updates on production volume and operational efficiency.
3Management's outlook on future market conditions and pricing.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
5Responses to any recent regulatory changes affecting the industry.