Equity Profile

ETSY

Etsy, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryBroadline Retail$6.3B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

Etsy Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.0%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.60	$1.16	-3.07%
Revenue	N/A	$617M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Etsy Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.0%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.60	$1.16	-3.07%
Revenue	N/A	$617M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Cautiously Optimistic

Management acknowledged the disappointing EPS results but emphasized their commitment to long-term strategies. They highlighted ongoing investments in the platform.

We are focused on long-term growth despite the current challenges.

Our marketplace continues to evolve, and we are investing in key areas.

What It Means

Etsy's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about profitability. The stock reaction remained neutral, indicating that investors may have anticipated a challenging quarter. Management's focus on long-term growth suggests they are prioritizing future potential over short-term results.

Company Snapshot

Etsy, Inc. is an online marketplace that connects buyers and sellers of handmade, vintage, and unique goods....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$1.16

Revenue

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, which is crucial for its long-term success.

$617M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Etsy, Inc. is an online marketplace that connects buyers and sellers of handmade, vintage, and unique goods. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, Etsy benefits from trends in e-commerce and consumer spending, making it an important platform for small businesses and artisans.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.55%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Etsy reported an EPS of $0.92, exceeding expectations by 4.31%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 9.28% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing user experience on the platform.
Commitment to expanding marketing efforts to attract new buyers.
Plans to improve seller tools and resources.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Etsy to report solid earnings driven by continued consumer interest in unique products. However, there are concerns about competition and market saturation.

Bull Case

If Etsy exceeds EPS and revenue expectations, it could signal strong demand and effective management strategies, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

If Etsy fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about its growth potential and competitive position, resulting in a negative market response.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.16

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$617M

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, which is crucial for its long-term success.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.16?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What is the revenue outlook for the next quarter?

Guidance on revenue will provide insights into future growth potential and market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Etsy's ability to leverage its unique marketplace to drive higher sales, especially in niche categories.

Supporting Evidence

Etsy's recent marketing initiatives may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

The strong performance in Q4-2025 suggests a positive trend that could continue into this quarter.

Insider selling could indicate a strategic shift rather than a lack of confidence in the company's future.

Key Risk

If Etsy's revenue exceeds $617 million, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it will reflect Etsy's ability to sustain growth amidst increasing competition.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings exceeding $1.16 per share with revenue above $617 million would confirm the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

Earnings falling below $1.16 per share or revenue below $608 million would support the bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.52%

Historical Avg

±6.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±11.1% while ETSY has averaged ±6.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.5%

30d HV

46.6%

Calls (292K)P/C Ratio: 0.94Puts (234K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$7.9M

124,665 sh

1 insider

Net

$7.9M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Etsy beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.5%, confirming strong demand and effective strategies.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors assess management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about 0.1% following earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on user growth and engagement metrics.
2Any commentary on competitive pressures and market share.
3Insights into the effectiveness of recent marketing campaigns.
4Details on seller performance and new seller onboarding.
5Management's outlook on seasonal trends and future guidance.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Etsy, Inc. is an online marketplace that connects buyers and sellers of handmade, vintage, and unique goods....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$1.16

Revenue

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, which is crucial for its long-term success.

$617M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.55%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Etsy reported an EPS of $0.92, exceeding expectations by 4.31%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 9.28% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing user experience on the platform.
Commitment to expanding marketing efforts to attract new buyers.
Plans to improve seller tools and resources.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Etsy to report solid earnings driven by continued consumer interest in unique products. However, there are concerns about competition and market saturation.

Bull Case

If Etsy exceeds EPS and revenue expectations, it could signal strong demand and effective management strategies, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

If Etsy fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about its growth potential and competitive position, resulting in a negative market response.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.16

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$617M

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, which is crucial for its long-term success.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.16?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What is the revenue outlook for the next quarter?

Guidance on revenue will provide insights into future growth potential and market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Etsy's ability to leverage its unique marketplace to drive higher sales, especially in niche categories.

Supporting Evidence

Etsy's recent marketing initiatives may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

The strong performance in Q4-2025 suggests a positive trend that could continue into this quarter.

Insider selling could indicate a strategic shift rather than a lack of confidence in the company's future.

Key Risk

If Etsy's revenue exceeds $617 million, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it will reflect Etsy's ability to sustain growth amidst increasing competition.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings exceeding $1.16 per share with revenue above $617 million would confirm the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

Earnings falling below $1.16 per share or revenue below $608 million would support the bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.52%

Historical Avg

±6.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±11.1% while ETSY has averaged ±6.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.5%

30d HV

46.6%

Calls (292K)P/C Ratio: 0.94Puts (234K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$7.9M

124,665 sh

1 insider

Net

$7.9M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Etsy beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.5%, confirming strong demand and effective strategies.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors assess management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about 0.1% following earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on user growth and engagement metrics.
2Any commentary on competitive pressures and market share.
3Insights into the effectiveness of recent marketing campaigns.
4Details on seller performance and new seller onboarding.
5Management's outlook on seasonal trends and future guidance.